The Breakfast Group. The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond
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1 The Breakfast Group The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University April 12, 2013
2 The U.S. Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook
3 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 Components of Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 14 Quarters Avg % Chg GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports Q Q Q Q2 0.8 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Recession
5 Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 14 Quarters Post-Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6 U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Source: Institute for Supply Management
8 (000s) US Payroll Job Change Month-to-Month Mar = 88 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Mar 2012 Mar 2013 Ranked by Size in 2011 (000s) Total = 1980 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Ranked by Size in 2011 (000s) Total = 88 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 (000s) Initial Claims for Unemployment 2011-Present 4-Week Moving Average Mar Source: Department of Labor
12 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Mar = 7.6 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight Apr
13 $/barrel Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > Source: IHS Global Insight Apr
14 Consumer Confidence Expectations 100 Current Situation Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 % Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight Apr
16 Interest Rates Forecast > > > > Source: IHS Global Insight Apr
17 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
18 Residential Construction and Resales Forecasts (millions of Units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary April 9, 2013
19 % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: IHS Global Insight Apr
20 U.S. Economic Performance % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight Apr
21 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight Apr
22 The Washington Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook
23 Wash MSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To February 2013 (000s) Total -192 Total 120 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 Metro Area Comparisons Job Change Largest Metro Areas (000s) WASHINGTON Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 (000s) 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Washington + 39,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 Job Change by Sector Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 39,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28 Job Change by Sector Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 10,400 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
29 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2012 = 702,300
30 Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2012 = 377,400
31 Annual Job Change District of Columbia, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
32 Job Change by Sector Feb 2012 Feb 2013 District of Columbia (000s) Total 3,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
33 Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 Job Change by Sector Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Suburban Maryland (000s) Total 12,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
35 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
36 Job Change by Sector Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 16,200 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
37 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.7 U.S. 6.5 SMD 5.5 MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
38 % 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Feb US 7.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
39 Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area
40 Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year , MSA Feb= % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
41 Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year PG LDN PW DC ARL MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
42 (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $ 333.3K Feb 2013 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
43 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
44 % Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
45 Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
46 Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
47 Washington MSA Building Permits , 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
48 Washington Area Economic Outlook:
49 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan , GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: 2012 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 18, 2013 published MSA total.
50 Job Growth in the Washington Area By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Federal Gov t Education/Health S & L Gov t Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Services Construction Information Ser Other Sectors (3) Total Jobs 3, ,
51 Major Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, (in thousands) Growth Sectors Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Construction Sub-Totals 1, , % Total Totals 3, , Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
52 Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 52, Computer, Math and Sci 33, Health Care (all occup.) 31, Office Admin Support 30, Sales & Related Occup. 29, Personal Care Occup. 23, Management Occupations 22, Education & Training 21, Totals 224, Source: EMSI Inc., GMU Center for Regional Analysis
53 GRP, Job and Workforce Growth in the Washington Metropolitan Area, (in billions of current $s, jobs in thousands) Indicator Change GRP Growth $450.9 $ % Net Job Growth 3, , % Replacement Job Growth % Resident Workforce 3, , %
54 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
55 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP Washington U.S. Source: IHS Global Insight Apr , GMU Center for Regional Analysis
56 CRA.GMU.EDU
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