Zions Bank Economic Overview
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Institute of Real Estate Management Economic Summit September 12, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 August Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 180, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% Private Payrolls 180, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% Labor Force Participation 62.9% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
4 156,000 Jobs Added in August 83 rd Consecutive Month of Growth Unemployment Near 16 Year Low 150, % Thousands of Employees 145, , , , % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 125, % Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment
5 156,000 Jobs Added in August Payroll Change in thousands Million Jobs Lost 16.4 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 3.2% Manufacturing 1.1% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.5% Information -2.4% Financial Activity 1.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3.0% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.1% Leisure & Hospitality 2.1% Other Services Government 0.0% 1.5% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Wage Growth Stagnant 4.0% 3.5% August % 3.0% 2.5% Average 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
9 68% Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change 67% 66% 65% 64% August: 62.9% 63% 62% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% Apr % Mar % August % 56% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Unemployment and Underemployment 18% 16% 14% 12% 7.1% 10% 8% 6% 4.2% 4% 2% U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 The Number of Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons Spiked during the Great Recession 10,000 Thousands of Employees 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,
13 Long-Term Unemployment rose slightly in July 8 Unemployed for more than 27 weeks Millions of Persons July 2017: 1.8 m Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Numbers are rounded
14 5% 4% 3% Producer Price Index declining July 1.9% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 Labor productivity has declined since strong growth during late 1990 s and early 2000 s Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Real output per hour Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
16 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5% Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 4% 3% June 1.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
17 Inflation Continues to Underperform 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% July 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Remains High Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: The Conference Board
19 Real GDP Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
20 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 4th Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
21 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
22 Explosion in the Federal Reserve s Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
23 3.0% Yield Curve Showing Signs of Distress 10-year minus 2-year spread 2.50% 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.50% 0.0% -0.50% -1.0% ource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
24 Regional Economic Conditions
25 Utah Accolades No. 1 State for Business (24/7 Wall Street) Top State for Economic Outlook (Rich States, Poor States) Best State for Employment (US News) One of the Top States to Start a Business (TheStreet.com) Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy (WalletHub) Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. (CNBC) #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) (Forbes) One of the Best Places to Live (US News) Salt Lake Top City Poised to be Tech Mecca (Forbes) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating
26 Utah Has the Most Diverse Economy in the Nation Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country: Hachman Index 2015 Utah Georgia North Carolina Illinois Missouri California Arizona Tennessee Pennsylvania Ohio Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of BEA data Note: A Hachman Index value of 100 means that the distribution of employment among industries is exactly the same as the nation. The closer the value to 100, the more diverse the state s economy.
27 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% OH 0.1% KY 0.3% WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
28 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051, , , Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
29 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% Millard 0.4% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Wayne 0.0% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
30 Utah s Population Continues to Grow 7,000, ,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
31 CA 1.7% OR 2.9% WA 2.2% NV 2.7% Utah Employment Growth 5 th Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: July 2016 to July 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.5% AK -0.3% ID 2.3% UT 2.5% AZ 1.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.1% HI 1.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.2% ND 1.5% SD 0.4% NE 1.2% KS -0.8% TX 2.4% OK 1.1% MN 2.1% IA 1.0% MO 2.0% AR 2.7% WI 0.9% LA 0.6% IL 0.6% MS 0.5% MI 1.4% IN 0.9% TN 1.7% AL 1.6% OH 0.9% KY 1.2% GA 2.2% VT 0.3% WV 0.2% PA 1.0% NC 1.5% SC 1.4% VA 1.5% FL 2.7% NH 1.8% NY 1.5% ME 1.0% DC 2.4% CT 0.7% DE 0.3% MD 1.9% MA 1.3% RI 1.7% NJ 1.2% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
32 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 295,700 jobs from low in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment
33 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: July 2016 to July 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -5.8% -4.8% Total: 2.9% 7.3% 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 5.2% 2.9% 2.1% 4.4% 1.9% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
34 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: July 2016 to July 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -500 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information -1,800 Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 6,900 3,100 6,800 1,700 5,300 3,000 1,800 4,300 10,700 Total: 49,300-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
35 Utah Employment Change Rates By County July 2016 to July 2017 State Rate = 2.9% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 1.3% Juab 1.0% Cache 2.4% Rich -2.6% Weber 1.9% Da1is 4.0% Morgan 5.2% Salt Lake 2.6% Utah 5.7% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.5% Duchesne 3.2% Carbon -2.3% Daggett -4.5% Uintah 0.0% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% Millard 2.0% Beaver 2.3% Piute 7.1% Sanpete 2.0% Sevier 2.7% Emery -4.3% Wayne 1.7% Grand 2.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 4.8% Garfield 1.6% San Juan 1.5% Washington 5.4% Kane 3.6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
36 Utah Unemployment 15 th Lowest in the Nation OR 3.8% CA 4.8% WA 4.5% NV 4.8% ID 3.0% UT 3.5% AZ 5.1% MT 3.9% WY 4.0% CO 2.4% NM 6.3% July 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.3% ND 2.2% SD 3.1% NE 2.8% KS 3.7% OK 4.4% MN 3.7% IA 3.2% MO 3.8% AR 3.4% WI 3.2% IL 4.8% MS 5.2% MI 3.7% IN 3.1% TN 3.4% AL 4.5% OH 5.2% KY 5.3% GA 4.8% WV 4.8% VT 3.1% PA 5.0% NC 4.1% SC 3.9% VA 3.8% NH 2.8% NY 4.8% ME 3.7% DC 6.4% CT 5.0% DE 4.8% MD 4.1% MA 4.3% RI 4.3% NJ 4.2% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% AK 7.0% TX 4.3% LA 5.3% FL 4.1% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
37 UT Unemployment Rates Consistently Lower than the Nation 10% 8% July US: 4.3% 6% 4% 2% July UT: 3.5% 0% U.S Utah Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
38 Utah Unemployment Rates By County July 2017 State Rate = 3.5% B4x Elder 3.5% Tooele 3.8% Juab 3.5% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.8% Morgan Davis 3.2% 3.1% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 3.0% Rich 3.4% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 3.4% Duchesne 5.8% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 5.6% Uintah 6.3% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% Millard 3.6% Beaver 4.0 Piute 5.5% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 4.1% Emery 5.7% Grand 5.4% Wayne 8.0% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Iron 4.3% Garfield 7.7% San Juan 7.2% Washington 3.5% Kane 3.5% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
39 Utah and Idaho Tied for Highest Personal Income Growth in the Country Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CA 4.8% WA 4.9% OR 3.8% NV 4.8% AK 1.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q Q1 U.S. = 3.7%; UT = 4.9% ID = 4.9% ID 4.9% UT 4.9% AZ 3.8% MT 3.7% WY -0.5% HI 3.0% CO 4.4% NM 2.2% ND 1.0% SD 2.5% NE 1.2% KS 2.5% TX 3.2% OK 1.2% MN 3.6% IA 1.9% MO 3.5% AR 3.1% WI 3.1% LA 3.0% IL 2.2% MS 2.4% MI 4.4% IN 4.0% TN 4.4% AL 3.2% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease OH 3.6% % WV 1.9% GA 3.8% VT 1.6% PA 3.9 % NC 4.4% SC 4.6% VA 4.4% FL 4.6% NH 3.1% NY 3.0% ME 2.9% DC 4.4% CT 2.5% DE 3.6% MD 4.9% MA 3.8% RI 3.0% NJ 3.5%
40 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
41 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise Above 110 indicates economic prosperity U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: 115 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
42 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 United States CPI: +1.7% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.4% Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
43 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
44 Economic Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Housing growth Strong population growth in the Intermountain West Utah has a diversified economy Utah job growth best in the country Utah inflation is strong Economic Negatives National and international uncertainty Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington
45 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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