Black Knight Mortgage Monitor

Transcription

1 Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Mortgage Market Performance Observations Data as of May, 2014 Month-end

2 Black Knight First Look May 2014 Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure): Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: Total U.S. foreclosure starts: Monthly Prepayment Rate (SMM): Foreclosure Sales as % of 90+: May-14 Month-overmonth change Year-overyear change 5.62% -0.01% -7.55% 1.91% -5.56% % 86, % % 0.90% 3.45% % 1.96% -0.35% 1.28% 12 Month Trend Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,839,000 18, ,000 1,169,000-18, , ,000-50, ,000 3,805,000-32, ,000 2

3 Focus Points Prepayments and Originations Which vintages are prepaying Recent origination trends Credit quality Jumbo originations Foreclosure starts and inventory Foreclosure starts vs. previous years State level analysis HPI and Negative Equity Pace of HPI recovery Incentive to sell 3

4 Prepayment activity increased for the third month in a row, rates lower 4

5 Prepayment highest for 2008 vintage, up significantly in post 2008 vintages Weighted Average Interest Rate for 30 yr fixed active loans <

6 Seasonal purchase activity picking up; purchase originations through April on par with 2013 Purchase Originations Jan-Apr: 2012: 847k 2013: 898k 2014: 897k 6

7 Original LTV by product HARP effect on agency refinance LTV; jumbo lowest 7

8 GNMA and GSE refinances with slight declines in Credit Scores, still high historically 8

9 Jumbo originations for purchases over 8% of total 9

10 Foreclosure starts trends and foreclosure inventory analysis 10

11 Foreclosure starts up 9.5% in May first time in 8 months Over 50% are repeat starts Almost 79% are from 2008 and prior vintages 11

12 Majority of the new foreclosures are from more seasoned delinquencies 12

13 2014 foreclosure starts down 32% compared to the same period in 2013, lowest since

14 NJ only state where foreclosure starts increased in 2014 compared to the same period last year 14

15 Foreclosure sales less than half of foreclosure starts 15

16 Foreclosure inventory declining as foreclosure outflows outweigh starts 16

17 Foreclosure inventories are down in all states from May 2013, NJ down the least 17

18 Foreclosure inventories lowest since July 2008, delinquencies lowest since Nov

19 Housing price index and equity 19

20 HPI up 0.9% monthly; 6.4% yearly. Negative equity down to 8.9% 20

21 Yearly increase in HPI majority of states increased; CA, NV, FL among the highest 21

22 Slowdown in HPI nationally 1.43% lower Y/Y than 2013/2012; CA, NV, AZ slowed down the most 22

23 Less incentive for borrowers to sell as rates go up 23

24 BKFS Mortgage Monitor Appendix Data as of May, 2014 Month-end 24

25 5.52% 6.08% 6.68% 6.41% 6.20% 6.46% 6.28% 6.45% 6.47% 6.27% 5.97% 5.62% 5.62% 838K 783K 750K 657K 518K 499K 443K 456K 359K 338K 409K 442K May 2014 Data Summary May Summary Statistics May-14 Monthly Change YTD Change Yearly Change Delinquencies 5.62% -0.01% % -7.55% Foreclosure 1.91% -5.56% % % Foreclosure Starts 86, % % % Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.22% -3.73% % % New Originations (data as of Apr-14) 442K 7.9% -3.1% -44.7% 12 Month History May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13 Oct-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 Jun-13 May-13 Delinquencies 5.62% 5.62% 5.52% 5.97% 6.27% 6.47% 6.45% 6.28% 6.46% 6.20% 6.41% 6.68% 6.08% Foreclosure 1.91% 2.02% 2.13% 2.22% 2.35% 2.48% 2.50% 2.54% 2.63% 2.66% 2.82% 2.93% 3.05% Foreclosure Starts 86,258 78,796 88,113 91,993 94, , , , , , , , ,812 Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 4.22% 4.39% 4.52% 4.70% 4.92% 5.03% 5.05% 5.10% 5.26% 5.22% 5.53% 5.62% 5.71% New Originations 442K 409K 338K 359K 456K 443K 499K 518K 657K 750K 783K 838K Total Delinquencies New Originations 25

26 Seven of the top 10 states for total non-current are judicial State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% State Del % FC % Non- Curr % Yr/Yr Change in NC% National 5.6% 1.9% 7.5% -17.5% National 5.6% 1.9% 7.5% -17.5% National 5.6% 1.9% 7.5% -17.5% MS 12.1% 1.6% 13.8% -4.1% GA 7.4% 1.0% 8.4% -14.2% KS * 5.4% 1.0% 6.4% -8.2% NJ * 6.5% 6.1% 12.6% -14.9% SC * 6.5% 1.9% 8.4% -11.5% IA * 4.5% 1.5% 5.9% -12.4% FL * 6.1% 5.2% 11.3% -31.7% NV 6.1% 2.2% 8.3% -33.6% OR 3.6% 2.1% 5.7% -18.4% NY * 6.2% 4.7% 10.9% -11.6% IL * 5.5% 2.7% 8.3% -23.6% WA 4.1% 1.6% 5.7% -23.9% LA * 8.8% 1.8% 10.7% -2.7% HI * 4.0% 4.3% 8.3% -19.1% UT 4.6% 0.8% 5.5% -15.8% ME * 6.6% 3.9% 10.5% -10.3% MA 6.8% 1.4% 8.2% -9.3% VA 4.6% 0.6% 5.3% -10.5% RI 7.9% 2.3% 10.2% -11.4% OK * 5.9% 2.1% 8.0% -7.1% NE * 4.5% 0.5% 5.0% -6.8% AL 8.8% 1.0% 9.8% -2.4% KY * 5.9% 1.6% 7.5% -8.0% ID 3.7% 1.3% 5.0% -21.3% CT * 6.1% 3.1% 9.2% -17.5% NM * 5.1% 2.3% 7.4% -7.7% CA 3.8% 0.7% 4.5% -28.2% DE * 6.7% 2.4% 9.1% -10.0% NC 6.3% 1.0% 7.2% -13.5% AZ 3.8% 0.6% 4.4% -21.3% PA * 6.8% 2.3% 9.1% -9.5% VT * 4.7% 2.4% 7.1% -13.4% WY 3.6% 0.5% 4.1% -3.4% IN * 7.1% 2.0% 9.1% -11.4% TX 6.3% 0.7% 7.0% -7.7% MN 3.5% 0.6% 4.1% -14.2% MD * 6.7% 2.4% 9.0% -19.4% MO 6.1% 0.8% 6.9% -7.5% AK 3.6% 0.5% 4.1% -5.2% WV 8.0% 1.1% 9.0% 0.3% WI * 5.3% 1.4% 6.7% -15.6% MT 3.1% 0.9% 4.0% -8.8% AR 7.5% 1.5% 9.0% -9.5% NH 5.7% 1.0% 6.7% -8.7% CO 3.3% 0.6% 3.8% -15.0% OH * 6.6% 2.2% 8.8% -13.7% DC 4.8% 1.9% 6.7% -16.5% SD * 2.9% 0.7% 3.6% -6.2% TN 7.8% 0.9% 8.7% -7.5% MI 5.7% 0.8% 6.5% -14.0% ND * 1.9% 0.6% 2.5% -14.2% * - Indicates Judicial State 26

27 Loan counts and average days delinquent TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT 30 DAYS 60 DAYS 90+ DAYS FC Average Days Delinquent for 90+ Average Days Delinquent for FC Total Non- Ratio of Month Current FC Starts 90+ to FC 1/31/ ,094,282 1,701, , , ,948 4,124, , % 1/31/ ,267,187 1,945, ,744 1,817,809 1,318,840 5,992, , % 1/31/ ,476,523 1,897, ,089 2,870,204 2,031,020 7,680, , % 1/31/ ,138,710 1,682, ,350 1,988,781 2,162,601 6,548, , % 1/31/ ,111,780 1,531, ,874 1,758,894 2,163,659 6,081, , % 2/29/ ,992,550 1,441, ,901 1,708,908 2,142,675 5,853, , % 3/31/ ,894,038 1,322, ,511 1,624,223 2,130,388 5,589, , % 4/30/ ,751,364 1,371, ,345 1,596,030 2,131,478 5,617, , % 5/31/ ,602,018 1,390, ,183 1,571,354 2,110,279 5,604, , % 6/30/ ,427,221 1,464, ,533 1,589,729 2,060,619 5,662, , % 7/31/ ,064,842 1,410, ,881 1,556,632 2,042,142 5,561, , % 8/31/ ,986,240 1,370, ,506 1,518,036 2,018,584 5,451, , % 9/30/ ,044,415 1,590, ,216 1,533,569 1,939,159 5,641, , % 10/31/ ,852,808 1,403, ,996 1,542,703 1,801,047 5,308, , % 11/30/ ,337,897 1,438, ,158 1,584,112 1,767,002 5,350, , % 12/31/ ,865,000 1,454, ,845 1,545,186 1,715,648 5,291, , % 1/31/ ,896,142 1,407, ,022 1,531,216 1,702,715 5,208, , % 2/28/ ,123,564 1,400, ,649 1,483,423 1,693,699 5,104, , % 3/31/ ,186,364 1,346, ,352 1,465,953 1,688,809 4,996, , % 4/30/ ,117,188 1,252, ,676 1,394,132 1,588,138 4,699, , % 5/31/ ,076,535 1,243, ,129 1,334,699 1,524,837 4,567, , % 6/30/ ,823,992 1,471, ,731 1,344,818 1,457,699 4,785, , % 7/31/ ,784,184 1,335, ,585 1,347,161 1,406,121 4,599, , % 8/31/ ,370,772 1,344, ,283 1,287,867 1,340,955 4,464, , % 9/30/ ,521,857 1,397, ,260 1,331,344 1,327,608 4,593, , % 10/31/ ,161,457 1,345, ,729 1,282,783 1,275,579 4,427, , % 11/30/ ,264,345 1,424, ,167 1,282,938 1,256,170 4,497, , % 12/31/ ,163,956 1,411, ,473 1,280,336 1,244,436 4,487, , % 1/31/ ,044,899 1,318, ,548 1,288,573 1,175,470 4,315,263 94, % 2/28/ ,118,665 1,267, ,140 1,241,878 1,114,985 4,106,413 91, % 3/31/ ,211,856 1,135, ,521 1,198,907 1,069,791 3,839,877 88, % 4/30/ ,211,885 1,197, ,813 1,187,019 1,016,287 3,837,312 78, % 5/31/ ,541,174 1,222, ,930 1,168, ,062 3,805,353 86, % 27

28 BKFS Mortgage Monitor Disclosures: Product / Metric Definitions and Market Sizing 28

29 Disclosure Page: Product Definitions *Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area increases. 29

30 Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count. Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc): All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent. 90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month. Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale. Foreclosure Starts Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month. Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure. Foreclosure Sale / New REO: Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation. REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market. Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving. 30

31 Disclosure Page: Extrapolation Methodology Mortgage statistics are scaled to estimate the total market performance based on coverage within the McDash database. The following table contains information on market coverage by product as of June 2012; extrapolations also include adjustments for vintage and as of date. Additional information is available upon request. 31