Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues

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1 Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 9/27/18 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.

2 Texas Economic Growth Accelerating This Year In five years prior to 2015, growth in energy, construction and exports provided a strong stimulus to Texas. In 2015 and 2016, low oil prices and strong dollar reduced job growth but Texas did better than other energy states. Last year energy and manufacturing sectors began to recover and overall job growth picked up from about 1.2 percent to 2.1 percent. So far this year energy and manufacturing have accelerated and job growth will likely be close to 2.8 percent in

3 ND NV CO TX FL GA OR UT SC CA WA DE MA TN ID NC US LA AR AZ OK RI MI NY OH KY WY NM WI IN IL MO MD AL MN PA SD CT NH KS IA NJ NE MS ME VA DC MT VT AK HI WV Texas Ranked 4th in Job Growth in 2014, Growth in Energy States Varied Widely Percent change, Dec Dec TX U.S. NOTE: Black bars represent major energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3

4 UT FL NV OR CA ID VA SC DC WA GA TN HI AZ CO NC MT MO AR US NH DE NY IN MA MD MN MS KY NE IL WI MI RI NJ AL TX OH SD ME IA PA CT VT KS NM OK LA AK WV WY ND Percent change, Dec Dec Texas Ranked 36th in Job Growth in 2015; Jobs Contracted in Most Energy States U.S. TX -6 NOTE: Black bars represent major energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

5 ID WA UT FL NV AZ OR GA CA CO SC NC TN US MA NJ MI NH TX NY MD ME MN MO AL IN OH PA DC WI AR VA MT IL KY DE HI VT SD MS NM IA RI CT KS NE OK LA WV AK ND WY TX Growth Remained Below National Average Percent change, Dec Dec U.S. NOTE: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. TX 5

6 ID UT NV WA OR CO CA AZ TX FL OK SC NC RI MT US GA PA HI MN NY MA MI TN SD MS WY MO NJ DC NM NH IN AL IA IL WV WI NE OH KY ME VA KS AR CT DE LA MD VT ND AK Texas Job Growth Ranked 9 th in the Nation Last Year Percent change, Dec Dec TX U.S. -2 NOTE: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6

7 AZ TX UT NV ND WA CO WY FL NC NH OH ID MA HI DE GA TN VA KS OR NM MD NJ WI US MN CA NE OK AL SC MI MO CT RI LA AR ME IN IA MS IL NY SD MT WV PA KY DC AK VT Percent change, Dec August TX Texas Job Growth This Year Has Improved To #2 Fastest Growing State NOTES: Black bars represent large energy-producing states. Growth rates are seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. 7

8 Percent change, Y/Y Texas Job Growth Back Above the Nation U.S NOTE: Shaded bars represent seasonally adjusted, annualized growth from Dec to August SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Texas

9 Texas Economy Expanding At Strong Pace (Texas Business-Cycle Index) Percent change, M/M SAAR % trend '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 NOTES: Data through August Shaded areas represent Texas recessions. Trend refers to growth from Jan present. 9

10 Percent, SA 10 Texas Unemployment Rate Equal to National Average 9 8 US unemployment rate NOTE: Data through August SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Texas unemployment rate

11 Average Private Sector Hourly Wages Growing at Mild Pace Dollars/hour, 3MMA, SA 30 Austin (2.6% Y/Y) $ US (2.8% Y/Y) $27.07 Texas (2.1% Y/Y) 26 $ NOTES: Data through August Numbers in parentheses refer to year-over-year percent change in 3mma. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by Dallas Fed. 11

12 I-35 Corridor Continues to Grow, Energy & Mfg. Areas Rebounding Percent, Dec./Dec Texas Job Growth, Houston (24.8%) Dallas (21%) San Antonio (8.4%) Austin (8.4%) Fort Worth (8.4%) El Paso (2.5%) NOTES: Shaded bars represent seasonally adjusted, annualized growth from Dec to August Figures in parentheses represent shares of total state employment. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Corpus Christi (1.6%) 12

13 Percent, Dec./Dec Trade, Transp. & Utilities (19.9%) Broad-Based Growth Across Industries 0.2 Govt. (15.5%) 6.1 Prof. & Business Svcs. (13.9%) Health & Private Ed. (13.6%) Job Growth Leisure & Hospitality (10.8%) Mfg. (7%) Financial Activities (6.2%) 5.9 Constr. (6%) 13.8 Natural Resources & Mining (1.9%) NOTES: Shaded bars represent seasonally adjusted, annualized growth from Dec to August Figures in parentheses represent shares of total nonfarm employment. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Information (1.6%) 13

14 Index, SA 60 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Shows Significant Strength This Year Production Volume of New Orders NOTE: Data through September SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. 14

15 Manufacturing Production Tied to Exports and Energy Growing Strongly Index, SA, 3-month centered moving average TMOS export-related production TMOS energy-related production NOTE: Data through August SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 15

16 Index, SA, Real Jan. 2000= Exports Strengthening Since mid-2016, Recent rise in Dollar, Tariffs May Subdue Growth Index Jan. 1988= Texas 105 Texas Value of the Dollar U.S. minus Texas SOURCES: U.S. Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; WISERtrade; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 16

17 AK WA SC TX KY LA ND MI NE IN IA IL TN AL OR OH DE MS KS MN GA CA SD CT WI VT WV UT NC AZ AR NJ NY ID MA NV PA MO NH ME MT FL RI VA WY NM OK MD CO DC HI Share of Texas Jobs Tied To Exports 4th Highest Among States Percent 12 Destination of Texas Exports, Other 33% Mexico 40% 8 TX 6 4 South Korea 3% China 5% Canada 8% European Union 11% 2 0 SOURCES: International Trade Administration; WISERtrade; Bureau of Economic Analysis. 17

18 Oil Prices Strong, Rig Count Higher than 2017 Number of rigs Nominal $ Rig Count Oil price Gas price (x10) NOTE: Data are weekly; last data point is the week of August 31, SOURCES: Oil and Gas Journal, Baker Hughes. $ $

19 Index Energy Survey Suggests Continued Strong Growth Q Q Q Q Price per barrel $59 (2017) $63 (2018) $66 (2018) -10 Business Activity Capital Expenditures Employment SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey. Company Outlook Uncertainty End of Year Price Forecast 19

20 Texas Leading Index Components Mixed Net change in Texas Leading Index Texas value of the dollar U.S. leading index Real oil price Well permits New unemployment claims Texas Stock Index Help-wanted index Average weekly hours NOTES: Three-month percent change through August, seasonally adjusted. Texas value of the dollar and unemployment claims for August are estimated. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 20

21 Texas Jobs Forecasted to Grow 2.3% to 3.3% in 2018 Millions, SA Index, 1987 = Texas Leading Index Texas nonfarm employment and forecast (with 80% confidence band) '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

22 Nationally, Recent Net New Hiring Driven By Small Companies 22

23 Summary In 2015 and 2016, Texas weakened sharply but continued to grow - did much better than 1980s and better than other energy states. In 2017 energy and manufacturing sectors rebounded. Texas grew strongly in first half of this year and will decelerate in second half but remain strong about 2.8 percent for the year. Early for 2019 but likely percent. Big challenge is shortage of labor with UR near historical lows and uncertainty surrounding international trade. Biggest risk to the forecast is trade war or sharp decline in oil prices. 23

24 Texas Likely will Continue to Outperform Other States in the Long-Run 24

25 Texas Has Been in Top 10 States in Terms of Job and Output Growth Real GDP Job Growth Time Period Percent Change State Ranking Percent Change State Ranking 1970s s s s s NOTES: Real GDP data only available back to 1971 for Texas and 1977 for other states; 1970s state ranking based on nominal GDP. Data are in annualized growth rates. SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

26 Why Do Some States Grow Faster Than Others? Where do people want to live? Where can businesses maximize profits? Technology and infrastructure can have important impacts. Faster growing states tend to have greater economic freedom (smaller share of government, fewer regulations), lower cost of living, better K-12 education outcomes.

27 Economic Freedom & Growth High in Texas Economic Freedom Index Florida Texas 7.5 Trendline New York California Job Growth ( ) SOURCE: Fraser Institute Economic Freedom Network; Bureau of Labor Statistics.

28 Population Growth Strong in Texas Cost advantage and ease of doing business is reflected in strong movement of people and firms to Texas Since 2000, nearly half of the increase in state population has been due to immigration from other states and internationally. Expected to take on an even larger role in the coming decades. Growth in size and number of businesses nearly double the rate of the U.S.

29 Texas Population Growth Consistently Ahead of National Average Percent* TX natural increase TX international immigration TX domestic inmigration 1.9 US natural increase US international immigration *Annual average percentage point contribution to population growth. SOURCES: Texas A&M; Census Bureau; adjustments by FRB Dallas.

30 Future Growth Texas likely to continue to grow faster than the national average for many years to come but faces challenges going forward. Erosion in cost of living and doing business (housing, congestion, regulations). Need further improvement in educational outcomes and attainment technology enabled disruption

31 Summary Texas in top 10 states in terms of long-term job and output growth Biggest factors in Texas growth may be reasons behind why workers and firms move here Factors such as low cost of living and doing business has attracted strong net in-migration of people and firms Most recent decade strong due to energy and exports As populations continues to grow, gets harder to contain cost of living and doing business and growth tends to slow

32 Dallas Fed Publications Public Resources from the Dallas Fed: Southwest Economy Regional Economic Updates San Antonio and Austin Economic Indicators Texas Business Outlook Surveys Energy Survey National Economic Updates International Economic Updates Additional Research Publications and Data 32

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