Western Treasure Valley Economic Breakfast Economic Overview March 17, 2016

Transcription

1 Western Treasure Valley Economic Breakfast Economic Overview March 17, 2016

2 Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 WA 1.1% OR 0.8% NV 1.3% AK 0.7% ID 1.0% National U.S. Rate = 0.7% VT ND Economic MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% SD WI 1.3% 0.3% MI WY PA 1.0% IA NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT Conditions 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% MS AL GA 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% LA 0.5% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss FL 1.2% NH NY 0.4% ME -0.01% DC 2.1% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

3 Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country A period of increasing Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% WA 1.1% OR 0.8% NV 1.3% NH interest rates?... VT ND MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% NY 0.4% ID 1.0% WY 1.0% SD 1.3% NE OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% It s up 0.3% to the Fed NC 1.0% TN 0.6% AZ OK SC AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% DC 0.3% 2.1% AK 0.7% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% IA 0.5% WI 0.3% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% MI AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss GA 0.8% PA FL 1.2% ME -0.01% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

4 Payroll Change 000 s National Job Growth Improving Million Jobs Lost Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 Monthly Change in Employment by Industry Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry: Jan 2016 to Feb 2016 Industry Sector Monthly Jobs Added/Lost Natural Resources/Mining -18,000 Construction 19,000 Manufacturing -16,000 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 53,000 Information 12,000 Financial Activity 6,000 Professional & Business 23,000 Education & Health Services 86,000 Leisure & Hospitality 48,000 Other Services 17,000 Government 12,000 TOTAL 242,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

6 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction -16.1% Total: 1.9% 4.0% Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

7 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -141 Construction 253 Manufacturing 12 Trade, Trans., Utilities 470 Information 41 Financial Activity 142 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 610 Ed. & Health Serv. 698 Leisure & Hospitality 446 Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

8 U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping % in Feb 3.0 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars U.S. Wage Growth Steady 4.0% 3.5% Average 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0%

10 Contribution to GDP Growth Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption Q GDP 1.0% 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Consumer Confidence Only Slightly Higher than One Year Ago Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

12 Percent Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low 5.0 Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 Underemployment Remains Stubbornly High U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 1950 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate % 68 Among Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar % Feb % Feb % 58 56

15 Percent Producer Price Index Year-to-Year Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

16 Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 CPI Inflation Increasing 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Percent U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE 3.5 Yearly Change Rate U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

18 Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

19 Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

20 Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

21 USD Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 PARITY $1.05 $0.90 $0.80 Source: Investing.com

22 US Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan Inverted Scale $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

23 The World s Devaluing Currencies Compared to the USD November 2014-November 2015 Source: CNNMoney s reporting of data from Factset Note: 12-month change ending November 10, 2015

24 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 $ Per Barrel $ $ Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade $108 $ $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $26 Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com

25 $ Per Barrel Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade $ $ Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; weekly averages

26 2007 Source: Baker Hughes Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs ,200 Total U.S. Rig Count Down Significantly 2,000 1,800 1,931 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

27 Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment Effective Fed Rate 12-month change in PCE price index Unemployment Rate (right axis) First Fed rate increase since Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

28 Percent Federal Funds Rate Forecast (December 2015) Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

29 Percent Federal Funds Rate Forecast (March 2016) Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

30 Utah is One of the Fastest Growing States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% NH Local Economic WA ME 1.1% VT -0.01% ND MT 3.1% MN 1.0% OR 0.8% NY 0.8% ID SD WI 0.4% CA 0.9% NV 1.3% AK 0.7% 1.0% WY PA 1.0% IA Conditions NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY - KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% NC 1.0% AZ 1.2% HI 1.0% NM 1.3% TX 1.5% OK 0.9% AR 0.3% 0.3% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% MI TN 0.6% AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss SC 1.1% GA 0.8% FL 1.2% DC 2.1% CT DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

31 Idaho Population Growth 11 th Fastest in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT - PA NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME - DC 1.9% CT - DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

32 Oregon Population Growth 9 th in the Nation CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT - PA NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME - DC 1.9% CT - DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

33 Idaho Population Growth Rates By County 2013 to 2014 State Average = 1.3% Boundary 1.0% Bonner 2.2% Kootenai 2.1% Benewah 0.8% Latah 0.5% Nez Perce 0.2% Lewis 0.3% Shoshone -2.3% Clearwater -0.5% Idaho Increase of 1.4% or Greater Adams 0.8% Valley 2.5% Lemhi 0.0% Increase of 0.9% to 1.3% Increase of 0.4% to 0.8% Increase of 0.0% to 0.3% Population Loss Washington 0.7% Clark Custer 0.7% -2.2% Payette 1.1% Gem 1.0% Canyon 2.1% Ada 2.3% Owyhee -0.6% Boise 1.2% Elmore -0.2% Camas 0.0% Gooding -0.2% Twin Falls 1.3% Blaine 0.8% Lincoln 0.2% Jerome 0.9% Minidoka Cassia 0.8% Butte -0.2% Power -1.0% Jefferson 0.6% Bingham -0.3% Bannock 0.0% Oneida -2.0% Fremont -0.3% Madison Teton 1.2% 0.4% Bonneville 1.0% Caribou Bear Lake Franklin 0.3% 1.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

34 Total Population Idaho Population and Components of Change 1,800,000 1,654,930 60,000 1,600,000 50,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 9,097 10,925 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Components of Population Change 0-20,000 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

35 CA 2.8% OR 3.4% WA 3.0% NV 2.7% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Idaho Employment Growth AK -0.5% ID 3.9% UT 3.0% AZ 2.9% Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.9% MT 0.9% WY -3.0% HI 1.8% CO 2.7% NM 0.2% ND -4.5% SD 1.1% NE 1.5% KS TX 1.6% OK -0.6% MN 1.1% IA 1.5% MO 0.5% AR 1.9% WI 0.9% LA -0.8% IL 0.8% MS 1.3% MI 2.1% IN 1.5% TN 3.4% AL 0.8% OH 1.5% KY 1.4% GA 2.8% WV -1.6% VT 1.2% PA 0.6% NC 2.5% SC 2.2% 2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate) 1.9% to 2.7% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss VA 2.3% FL 3.3% NH 1.2% NY 1.3% ME 0.8% DC 1.3% CT 0.6% DE 2.8% MD 1.7% MA 1.4% RI 0.7% NJ 1.8%

36 CA 2.8% OR 3.4% WA 3.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Oregon Employment Growth NV 2.7% AK -0.5% ID 3.9% UT 3.0% AZ 2.9% 2 nd Highest in Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.9% MT 0.9% WY -3.0% HI 1.8% CO 2.7% NM 0.2% ND -4.5% SD 1.1% NE 1.5% KS TX 1.6% OK -0.6% MN 1.1% IA 1.5% MO 0.5% AR 1.9% WI 0.9% LA -0.8% IL 0.8% MS 1.3% MI 2.1% IN 1.5% TN 3.4% AL 0.8% OH 1.5% KY 1.4% GA 2.8% WV -1.6% VT 1.2% PA 0.6% NC 2.5% SC 2.2% 2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate) 1.9% to 2.7% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss VA 2.3% FL 3.3% NH 1.2% NY 1.3% ME 0.8% DC 1.3% CT 0.6% DE 2.8% MD 1.7% MA 1.4% RI 0.7% NJ 1.8%

37 Thousands of Employees Idaho Employment at New Highs 800 Gain of 92,000 jobs since low in Loss of 59,000 jobs from Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

38 Thousands of Employees Oregon Employment at New Highs Gain of 223,000 jobs since low in Loss of 147,000 jobs from Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

39 Idaho Employment Gains and Losses Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -7.9% Total: 3.9% Construction 5.1% Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities 3.1% 3.5% Information -1.1% Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3.9% 3.3% Ed. & Health Serv. 5.5% Leisure & Hospitality 7.3% Other Services 4.3% Government 2.5% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

40 Idaho Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -300 Total: 26,200 Construction Manufacturing 1,900 1,900 Trade, Trans., Utilities 4,700 Information -100 Financial Activity 1,300 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2,700 Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality 4,900 5,200 Other Services 1,000 Government 3,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

41 Oregon Employment Gains and Losses Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining 0.0% Total: 3.4% Construction 5.0% Manufacturing 3.2% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.3% Information 7.8% Financial Activity 3.3% Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% Other Services 3.5% Government 2.1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

42 Oregon Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining 0 Total: 59,600 Construction 4,100 Manufacturing 5,900 Trade, Trans., Utilities 4,200 Information Financial Activity 2,500 3,100 Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. 11,000 11,700 Leisure & Hospitality 8,700 Other Services 2,100 Government 6, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

43 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment Idaho Employment Change Rates By County Dec 2014 to Dec 2015 State Rate = 4.4% 10.0% or more 4.4% to 9.9% 2.0% to 4.3% 0.0% to 1.9% Loss Washington Boundary 15.1% Bonner -1.3% Kootenai 5.5% Benewah 5.5% Latah 10.5% Nez Perce 14.5% Lewis -5.0% Adams -3.3% Clearwater 1.4% Idaho -7.1% Valley 6.5% -2.6% Custer Clark -7.6% -15.1% Payette Gem 9.0% 13.6% Canyon 7.0% Ada 7.5% Owyhee 15.5% Shoshone -12.8% Boise -1.8% Elmore 4.2% Camas 20.9% Gooding -7.4% Twin Falls 4.2% Lemhi 0.4% Blaine -2.6% Lincoln 8.0% Jerome 12.3% Minidoka 4.9% Cassia 1.2% Butte 7.4% Power 19.9% Jefferson 9.9% Bingham -2.0% Oneida -8.9% Bannock 22.0% Fremont 26.2% Madison Teton 20.9% 8.5% Bonneville 3.7% Caribou -1.9% Bear Lake Franklin -13.5% 10.4%

44 Thousands of Employees Wyoming Employment Still Not Fully Recovered from Recession Loss Gain of 7,000 jobs from low in Loss of 20,000 jobs from Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

45 WY Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -20.2% Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. -5.1% -3.0% -1.6% -2.6% -3.5% -1.6% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.6% Leisure & Hospitality -3.6% Other Services Government Total: -3.0% -2.9% 1.3% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

46 WY Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining-5,500 Construction -1,200 Manufacturing -300 Trade, Trans., Utilities -900 Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv Ed. & Health Serv. 700 Leisure & Hospitality -1,300 Other Services Government Total: -8, ,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

47 Wyoming Employment Change Rates By County January 2015 to January 2016 State Rate = -2.8% 3.0% or more 2.0% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.9% Teton 0.7% Lincoln -0.4% Uinta -7.4% Park Sublette -8.1% Fremont -3.0% Sweetwater -5.8% Big Horn -2.4% Washakie -1.2% Hot Springs -3.1% Sheridan -0.8% Campbell -6.8% Crook -2.6% Johnson -5.1% Weston -2.3% Natrona -7.8% Converse -3.6% Carbon 5.8% Albany 3.7% Platte 1.5% Niobrara -4.3% Goshen 0.2% Laramie -0.7% 0.0 to 0.9% Loss Source: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services Note: Not seasonally adjusted

48 Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment OR 5.1% CA 5.7% WA 5.8% NV 6.2% ID 3.9% UT 3.4% AZ 5.6% MT 4.1% Rates in the Country January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% WY 4.7% CO 3.2% NM 6.5% ND 2.8% SD 2.8% NE 3.0% KS 4.0% OK 4.1% MN 3.7% IA 3.5% MO 4.3% AR 4.4% WI 4.6% IL 6.3% MS 6.7% MI 4.9% IN 4.6% TN 5.4% AL 6.2% OH 4.9% KY 5.8% GA 5.4% WV 6.3% VT 3.4% PA 4.6% NC 5.6% SC 5.5% VA 4.1% NH 2.9% NY 4.9% ME 3.8% DC 6.5% CT 5.5% DE 4.7% MD 4.9% MA 4.7% RI 5.3% NJ 4.5% AK 6.6% TX 4.5% LA 5.9% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.7% FL 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.2% 4.9% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate) 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

49 OR 5.1% CA 5.7% WA 5.8% NV 6.2% ID 3.9% Oregon Unemployment Slightly Higher than Nation UT 3.4% AZ 5.6% MT 4.1% WY 4.7% CO 3.2% NM 6.5% January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% ND 2.8% SD 2.8% NE 3.0% KS 4.0% OK 4.1% MN 3.7% IA 3.5% MO 4.3% AR 4.4% WI 4.6% IL 6.3% MS 6.7% MI 4.9% IN 4.6% TN 5.4% AL 6.2% OH 4.9% KY 5.8% GA 5.4% WV 6.3% VT 3.4% PA 4.6% NC 5.6% SC 5.5% VA 4.1% NH 2.9% NY 4.9% ME 3.8% DC 6.5% CT 5.5% DE 4.7% MD 4.9% MA 4.7% RI 5.3% NJ 4.5% AK 6.6% TX 4.5% LA 5.9% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.7% FL 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.2% 4.9% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate) 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

50 Idaho vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates U.S. Idaho Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

51 Oregon vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates U.S. Oregon Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

52 Idaho Unemployment Rates By County December 2015 State Rate = 3.9% Boundary 6.0% Bonner 5.9% Kootenai 4.8% Benewah 6.8% Latah 3.6% Nez Perce 3.3% Lewis 6.4% Shoshone 8.5% Clearwater 8.4% Idaho 5.2% 3.4% or lower Adams 7.8% Valley 5.7% Lemhi 5.9% 3.5% to 3.9% 4.0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% or greater Washington 5.4% Clark Custer 4.0% 5.4% Payette 4.9% Canyon 4.7% Gem 4.7% Ada 3.2% Owyhee 5.0% Boise 5.9% Elmore 4.5% Camas 4.8% Gooding 3.2% Twin Falls 3.5% Blaine 3.3% Lincoln 5.1% Jerome 3.3% Cassia 3.4% Butte 4.9% Minidoka 3.4% Power 3.9% Jefferson 3.1% Bingham 4.0% Bannock 3.6% Oneida 4.2% Fremont 3.7% Madison Teton 2.6% 3.4% Bonneville 3.2% Caribou 5.4% Bear Lake Franklin 5.8% 4.4% Source: Idaho Department of Labor

53 Idaho Personal Income Growth Slightly Lower than Nation OR 5.7% CA 6.5% WA 5.9% NV 5.9% AK 4.7% ID 4.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent Change in Personal Income : Q Q U.S. = 4.6%; ID = 4.2% UT 6.3% AZ 5.2% MT 4.6% WY 1.4% HI 4.8% CO 5.3% NM 3.3% ND -2.4% SD 1.4% NE 2.8% KS 3.6% TX 3.9% OK 2.0% MN 3.7% IA 1.3% MO 3.6% AR 4.5% WI 3.7% LA 2.6% IL 4.0% MI 4.6% IN 4.6% TN 4.9% MS 3.3% AL 3.9% 5.0% or more OH 3.5% KY 5.0% GA 5.2% WV 2.3% VT 3.0% PA 3.6% NC 5.3% SC 5.1% VA 4.6% FL 5.4% NH 4.9% NY 4.6% 4.6% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.5% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.8% CT 4.1% DE 4.5% MD 4.4% MA 5.2% RI 4.6% NJ 4.4%

54 Oregon Personal Income Growth 5 th Highest in Nation OR 5.7% CA 6.5% WA 5.9% NV 5.9% AK 4.7% ID 4.2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent Change in Personal Income : Q Q U.S. = 4.6%; WY = 1.4% UT 6.3% AZ 5.2% MT 4.6% WY 1.4% HI 4.8% CO 5.3% NM 3.3% ND -2.4% SD 1.4% NE 2.8% KS 3.6% TX 3.9% OK 2.0% MN 3.7% IA 1.3% MO 3.6% AR 4.5% WI 3.7% LA 2.6% IL 4.0% MI 4.6% IN 4.6% TN 4.9% MS 3.3% AL 3.9% 5.0% or more OH 3.5% KY 5.0% GA 5.2% WV 2.3% VT 3.0% PA 3.6% NC 5.3% SC 5.1% VA 4.6% FL 5.4% NH 4.9% NY 4.6% 4.6% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.5% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.8% CT 4.1% DE 4.5% MD 4.4% MA 5.2% RI 4.6% NJ 4.4%

55 Idaho Median Household Income Slightly Below National Rate OR $58,875 CA $60,487 WA $59,068 NV $49,875 ID $53,438 AK $67,629 UT $63,383 AZ $49, U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Idaho Rate = $53,438 MT $51,102 WY $55,690 CO $60,940 NM $46,686 ND $60,730 SD $53,053 NE $56,870 KS $53,444 TX $53,875 OK $47,199 MN $67,244 IA $57,810 MO $56,630 WI $58,080 OH IL IN $49,644 $54,916 WV $48,060 VA $39,552 KY $66,155 $42,786 NC LA $42,406 MI $52,005 TN $43,716 AR $44,922 MS AL $35,521$42,278 $60,000 or more $53,658 to $59,999 GA $49,555 VT $60,708 NY $54,310 PA $55,173 $46,784 SC $44,929 FL $46,140 NH $73,397 ME $51,710 DC $68,277 CT $70,161 DE $57,522 MD $76,165 MA $63,151 RI $58,633 NJ $65,243 HI $71,223 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey $50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate) $40,000 to $49,999 $39,999 or less

56 Oregon Median Household Income Higher than National Rate OR $58,875 CA $60,487 WA $59,068 NV $49,875 ID $53,438 AK $67, U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Oregon Rate = $58,875 UT $63,383 AZ $49,254 MT $51,102 WY $55,690 CO $60,940 NM $46,686 ND $60,730 SD $53,053 NE $56,870 KS $53,444 TX $53,875 OK $47,199 MN $67,244 IA $57,810 MO $56,630 WI $58,080 OH IL IN $49,644 $54,916 WV $48,060 VA $39,552 KY $66,155 $42,786 NC LA $42,406 MI $52,005 TN $43,716 AR $44,922 MS AL $35,521$42,278 $60,000 or more $53,658 to $59,999 GA $49,555 VT $60,708 NY $54,310 PA $55,173 $46,784 SC $44,929 FL $46,140 NH $73,397 ME $51,710 DC $68,277 CT $70,161 DE $57,522 MD $76,165 MA $63,151 RI $58,633 NJ $65,243 HI $71,223 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey $50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate) $40,000 to $49,999 $39,999 or less

57 Aug 2011 Dec 2011 Apr 2012 Aug 2012 Dec 2012 Apr 2013 Aug 2013 Dec 2013 Apr 2014 Aug 2014 Dec 2014 Apr 2015 Aug 2015 Dec 2015 Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Year Over Year Change United States CPI Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

58 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Confidence Index 50.0 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

59 Idaho Poverty Rate Lower than National Average CA 15.8% WA 12.0% OR 14.4% NV 17.0% ID 12.4% UT 10.2% AZ 21.2% 2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Idaho Rate = 12.4% MT 12.0% WY 9.7% CO 12.3% NM 20.0% ND 9.7% SD 12.8% NE 11.8% KS 12.1% OK 17.3% MN 8.3% IA 10.3% MO 10.4% AR 18.4% WI 10.9% IL 13.7% MS 22.1% MI 14.8% IN 14.6% TN 18.2% AL 17.8% OH 15.6% KY 20.0% VT 9.3% WV 17.3% PA 12.5% VA 10.2% NC 17.1% SC 16.5% GA 16.8% NH 7.2% NY 14.0% ME 13.5% DC 19.0% CT 8.6% DE 11.0% MD 9.8% MA 14.6% RI 1.3% NJ 11.3% AK 11.9% TX 16.4% LA 23.1% 10.5% or less 10.6% to 12.0% FL 16.7% HI 10.8% 12.1% to 14.4% 14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate) 18.1% or more Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

60 Oregon Poverty Rate Slightly Lower than Nation CA 15.8% WA 12.0% OR 14.4% NV 17.0% ID 12.4% UT 10.2% AZ 21.2% 2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Oregon Rate = 14.4% MT 12.0% WY 9.7% CO 12.3% NM 20.0% ND 9.7% SD 12.8% NE 11.8% KS 12.1% OK 17.3% MN 8.3% IA 10.3% MO 10.4% AR 18.4% WI 10.9% IL 13.7% MS 22.1% MI 14.8% IN 14.6% TN 18.2% AL 17.8% OH 15.6% KY 20.0% VT 9.3% WV 17.3% PA 12.5% VA 10.2% NC 17.1% SC 16.5% GA 16.8% NH 7.2% NY 14.0% ME 13.5% DC 19.0% CT 8.6% DE 11.0% MD 9.8% MA 14.6% RI 1.3% NJ 11.3% AK 11.9% TX 16.4% LA 23.1% 10.5% or less 10.6% to 12.0% FL 16.7% HI 10.8% 12.1% to 14.4% 14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate) 18.1% or more Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

61 Malheur County Economic Conditions 2014 Population: 30, Household Size: 2.64 Jan 2016 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% (Rank: 17 of 37) Jan 2016 Total Employment: 11,582 (Year-Over-Year Growth: 3.0%) Median Household Income: $34,380 Sources: U.S Census Bureau and Oregon Employment Department Qualityinfo.org

62 Idaho Economic Indicators Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Gross State Product e 2016f 2017f Source: Moody s Analytics e = estimate f = forecast

63 Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Phone: Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.