Eye on the South Carolina Housing Market presented at 2008 HBA of South Carolina State Convention August 1, 2008
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1 Eye on the South Carolina Housing Market presented at 28 HBA of South Carolina State Convention August 1, 28 Robert Denk Assistant Staff Vice President, Forecasting & Analysis
2 2, US Single Family Housing Starts Thousands of Units, SAAR 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB
3 Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Key Factors: Local Local Local Local Economic Local Local Income, Employment, Local Local Population Local Local Local Local Housing Market Local Local House Prices, Local Local Inventories Local Local Local Local Special Local Local Subprime Exposure, Local Local Foreclosures Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
4 Current Production Relative to Peak 25 Levels 1. June Permits / Peak 25 Permits National Average = MI FL NV CA VT HI AK AZ IL NH MO MD CT GA DC CO ID WV MA OH DE MN NM OR MT VA LA KY ME NJ KS UT IN NY WA WI TN RI IA PA OK NE TX AR AL SC NC MS WY ND SD Source: Census Bureau
5 Current Production Relative to Average Levels From June Permits / Average 2-3 Permits National Average =.47 MI MN FL RI IL CT NV CA NJ CO AZ GA MD OH NH ME WI IN AK MA PA KY MO VA KS VT IA UT OR DE NM NY WV WA TN NE NC DC HI TX ND ID LA AR AL OK SC MS SD MT WY Source: Census Bureau
6 Unemployment Rate -- June 28 (%, SA) Std. Dev. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics US: 5.5 Mean: 5.11 Std Dev: 1.24 Min: 2.8 Max: 8.5 < > 2.
7 Subprime ARM Exposure (28Q1) Std. Dev. US: 5.81 Mean: 4.91 Std Dev: 1.94 Min: 1.96 Max: < > 2.5 Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey
8 Foreclosure Started - All loans (%), 28Q1 US: 1.1 Mean:.76 Std Dev:.35 Min:.23 Max: Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey
9 US Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 6 Millions of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures 7 5 All Mortgages 6 4 All Mortgages except 5 Subprime ARMs All Foreclosures 2 1 All Other Foreclosures 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
10 Nevada Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 8 Thousands of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures All Mortgages All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs All Foreclosures 2 All Other Foreclosures 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
11 Florida Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures Thousands of Mortgages 4,5 Thousands of Foreclosures 1 4, 9 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, All Mortgages All Other Foreclosures All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs All Foreclosures Subprime ARM Foreclosures Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
12 South Carolina Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 9 Thousands of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures All Mortgages All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs All Foreclosures All Other Foreclosures 2 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
13 House Price Appreciation: Peak vs 2Q1 US: 69.9 Mean: 68.7 Std Dev: 39.9 Min: 14.6 Max: Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Std. Dev. < > 1.5
14 Recent House Price Appreciation Still Rising Peaked Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
15 House Price Decline: 28Q1 vs Peak Std. Dev. < -2.5 US: -.27 Mean: Std Dev: 5.95 Min: Max: -.1 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Still Rising
16 South Carolina Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
17 Myrtle Beach, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
18 Charleston, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
19 8 Columbia, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
20 6 Greenville, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
21 Mortgage Interest Rates 3 Year Fixed 2 Percent Source: Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
22 Demand, Supply and House Price Adjustment Supply P 1 P * Supply Demand Demand Q * Q * Q 1
23 House Prices and Starts Myrtle Beach Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Starts 21% Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
24 House Prices and Starts - Charleston Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Starts 34% Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
25 House Prices and Starts Columbia Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Starts -3% Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
26 House Prices and Starts Greenville Thousands of Dollars Thousands of Starts 13% Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
27 Actual / Simulated Prices (28Q1) Mean:.97 Std Dev:.19 Min:.55 Max: Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
28 Single Family Housing Starts Growth, 28 Q4 (%) WA MT ND ME OR ID MN VT NH WY SD WI MI NY MA CT RI CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL IN KY OH WV PA MD DC VA NJ DE AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA TX LA FL AK HI Postive -5 to -1 to -5-2 to -1 Less than -2
29 Single Family Housing Starts Forecast South Carolina 6 Thousands of Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
30 Upside Risk to Forecast: Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Downside Risk to Forecast: Recession Protracted Credit Market Problems
31 Contact Info: Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis
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