Recent Economic Trends and Comparative Performance: U.S., Commonwealth of Virginia, Washington Metropolitan Area and Northern Virginia
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1 8// Capital One Bank and the GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Washington Area Economy: A Mid-Year Review and Early Forecast for Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University August, Recent Economic Trends and Comparative Performance: U.S., Commonwealth of Virginia, Washington Metropolitan Area and Northern Virginia
2 8// Economic Performance, - U.S., Virginia, Washington MSA, Northern Virginia % (Annual % Change) U.S. Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts Economic Performance, - U.S., Virginia, Washington MSA, Northern Virginia % (Annual % Change) U.S. VA Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts
3 8// Economic Performance, - U.S., Virginia, Washington MSA, Northern Virginia % (Annual % Change) U.S. MSA VA Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts Economic Performance, - U.S., Virginia, Washington MSA, Northern Virginia % (Annual % Change) U.S. MSA NVA VA Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts
4 8// The Great Recession and Its Aftermath Altered the Structure of the Washington Area Economy WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 8-Feb Feb -Jul (s) Total -78 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 8// The GRP* Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area (in billions of $s) Sector Aug 8-Feb Feb -e Change Private - $7. $. - $.8 Government State/Local $. $.89 $. Federal $. - $.7 $.87 Totals - $.9 $. $. Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product How is the Washington Area Economy Performing in Mid-?
6 8// (s) 8 8 Largest Job kets Job Change: Jul Jul Washington +9,8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul Jul Washington MSA (s) Total = 9,8 (.) (.) -... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 7
7 8// Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul- Total: Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul- Total:.7 7
8 8// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul Jul District of Columbia - - (s) Total 8,7 (.) (.) -... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul Jul Suburban yland (s) Total, (.) (.) -... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 8// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Jul Jul Northern Virginia (s) Total,9 (.) (.) -... Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC. U.S..7 SMD. MSA. - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) 9
10 8// Recent Washington Area Housing ket Trends Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year, MSA Jul = +.% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
11 8// Total Listings Per Sale July Each Year PW PG - LDN ARL DC MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $.9K July Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 8// % - - Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % - Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 8//,,,,,,,, Washington MSA Building Permits, -Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis New Building Permits for Privately Owned Residential Units, WMSA,,,,,,,,, : 8K : K Building Type: + Units - Units SF Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 8// Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: -8 % - - Economic Outlook (GRP), -8 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NVA MSA SM DC Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts
15 8// Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 7 8 D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 99- =,8 - - % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 8 U.S. Washington MSA Sources: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. *mid-year forecasts
16 8// Economic Indicators To Watch Monthly Forward Looking National Indicators U.S. Leading Index Conference Board Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Consumer Expectations Conference Board Monthly Forward Looking Washington Area Indicators Washington Area leading Index CRA website Job Change: Professional & Business Services as compared to Leisure & Hospitality and Retail CRA Residential Building Permits CRA, U.S. Census Housing Sales Prices CRA, MRIS Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu Save The Date: January,
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