Chad Wilkerson. Vice President, Economist, and Oklahoma City Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
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1 Chad Wilkerson Vice President, Economist, and Oklahoma City Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
2 Overview of the Federal Reserve System The Fed consists of three main entities: Board of Governors: 7 members appointed by U.S. President Federal Reserve Banks: 1 total; semi-independent by design Federal Open Market Committee: 19 members; 1 voting As with most central banks, the Fed s primary responsibilities fall within four general areas: Lender of last resort provide liquidity in times of crisis Monetary policy promote full employment and low inflation Bank regulation ensure safety and soundness of banks Financial services bank for banks, bank for federal govt.
3 Federal Reserve Districts and Office Locations
4 The Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City History, staff, and functions Branch office opened in 19; currently have about 35 staff Functions include economic research, bank examinations, public outreach 11 branch board of directors Steve Agee (chairman), Interim Dean of OCU Business School, OKC Bill Anoatubby, Governor, Chickasaw Nation, Ada Jim Dunn, Chairman, Mill Creek Lumber and Supply Co., Tulsa Jacque Fiegel, Senior EVP and COO, Coppermark Bank, OKC Rose Washington Rentie, Executive Director, TEDC Creative Capital, Tulsa Doug Tippens, President and CEO, Bank of Commerce, Yukon K. Vasudevan, Chairman, Service and Technology Corp., Bartlesville
5 The U.S. Economic Outlook Pace of recovery and growth outlook Price indexes and inflation outlook Government debt projections
6 Real GDP growth slowed in Q1 11, driven in part by bad weather Growth in Components of Real GDP 1 8 Percent change from the previous period 1 Q Q Total GDP Consumer spending -.1 Residential investment Business investment Exports -5. Government spending Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 April U.S. data showed solid job growth and factory activity, but slowing services U.S. Private Payroll Employment and Business Indexes Change from previous month, thousands Index Private Employment (left axis) - ISM Manufacturing Index (right axis) 35-8 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (right axis) 3-1 Apr- Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 5 Source: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Employment in several industries has rebounded considerably from a year ago U. S. Employment Growth 1 Percent change year-over-year 1 1 Apr-1 8 Apr Total Energy Prof & Bus Svcs Educ & Health Mfg Leis & Hosp Trade, Transp. & Utilities Finance Const Info State & Local Govt Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 Fed policymakers expect continued moderate U.S. GDP recovery Real Gross Domestic Product 8 Percent change, year-over-year Apr. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow 8 - Long Term Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FOMC
10 But for U.S. unemployment to remain relatively high for some time Percent Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Apr. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FOMC
11 Both overall and core inflation have risen with higher oil prices Consumer Price Index Percent change, year-over-year 5 Overall Core Apr-1 Apr- Apr-3 Apr- Apr-5 Apr- Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11-3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Some FOMC members expect inflation to be above long-term levels in the near term PCE Inflation Index 1 Percent change, year-over-year Apr. FOMC Forecast Ranges in Yellow Long Term Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FOMC
13 The Fed s balance sheet is expanding further, following recent FOMC decisions Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 3 $Trillions Assets Short Term Lending to Financial Firms Rescue Operations Projection 3 1 Targeted Lending Programs MBS & Agency Debt Treasury Securities 1-1 Currency Reserves -1 - SFA - Liabilities Other -3-3 Oct-7 Feb-8 Jun-8 Oct-8 Feb-9 Jun-9 Oct-9 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-11 Jun-11 Source: Federal Reserve Board
14 Federal government debt is on an unsustainable path CBO Public Debt Projections: Percent of GDP Times of War Source: CBO Long Term Budget Outlook June 1
15 Most of the projected growth in debt is related to health care costs Components of Federal Government Spending (CBO Baseline) 35 Percent of GDP Net Interest Payments 3 5 Other Non-Interest Spending 15 1 Medicare, Medicaid, Other Health Social Security Source: CBO Long Term Budget Outlook June 1
16 The Oklahoma Economic Outlook Recession and recovery pattern Variation in growth by area Variation in growth by industry
17 Oklahoma s recession and recovery path is the historical pattern late in, similar out Payroll Employment Year-over-year percent change - OK - - U.S Apr- Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11-8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 There have been differences across the state: Tulsa was hit harder but has now caught up Payroll Employment Year-over-year percent change Tulsa Metro OKC Metro Non-Metro OK Apr- Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11-8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Unemployment in much of the state is near what is often considered full employment Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted* 1 Percent Dec Mar U.S. OKC metro Tulsa metro Lawton metro Non-metro OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * Estimated by FRBKC
20 Most Oklahoma sectors are now growing solidly, but two continue to shed jobs Employment Growth April 11 1 Percent change year-over-year 1 8 U.S. OK Total Mfg Const Energy Prof & Bus Svcs Leis & Hosp Finance Educ & Health Trade, Transp. & Utilities State & Local Govt Info Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 And Oklahoma banks remain in much better shape than in the nation as a whole Noncurrent Loans as a Share of Total Loans Commercial Banks. Percent U.S.. 1. OK 1.. Q Q 1 Q Q 3 Q Q 5 Q Q 7 Q 8 Q 9 Q 1. Source: FDIC
22 Housing also held up better in Oklahoma, but has yet to show much recovery Single-Family Home Permits Seasonally Adjusted Index, Mar-1=1 OK 15 U.S Mar-1 Mar-3 Mar-5 Mar-7 Mar-9 Mar-11 Source: Census Bureau
23 Farmland values have also risen substantially from a year ago Percent change year-over-year Oklahoma Agricultural Land Values Non-Irrigated Cropland Source: KCFRB
24 Summary The U.S. economy is recovering and expected to continue to grow solidly, but with prices and debt rising Oklahoma s economy is also again growing solidly and remains in much better shape than the nation
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