THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
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1 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist
2 US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory swing Consumer spending has rebounded, but private investment spending remains weak Heavy government intervention has stabilized the financial crisis and provided stimulus More good news with each passing month, but significant hurdles remain
3 US POLICY ACTION TO DATE Lending guarantees for banks - $1.4 trillion Bank recapitalization - $290 billion Other asset purchases (comm. Paper, MBS, student loans, credit cards) - $3.5 trillion Aggressive monetary policy easing Fed Funds between 0 and 2.5% Bush and Obama fiscal stimulus packages - $1.5 trillion
4 US POLICY ACTION TO DATE Nationalization of key US institutions (Fannie and Freddie, AIG) GM and Chrysler Bailout Cash for Clunkers program Price tag so far: $5-6 trillion
5 WHERE ARE WE NOW? Global initiatives have led to a stabilization in global credit markets and a rebound in equity markets S&P 500, Dow and TSX up around 40-50% since March lows Japan, France and Germany recorded positive growth in Q2 Some US banks starting to repay TARP money US vehicle sales soar
6 US EXISTING HOME SALES AND PRICES (MILLIONS SAAR; $ THOUSANDS Source: National Assn. of Realtors.
7 US HOUSING STARTS (MILLIONS, SAAR) Source: Moody s Economy.com
8 US VEHICLE SALES (MILLIONS, ANNUALIZED) Source: Moody s Economy.com
9 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (1985 = 100) Source: The Conference Board Inc.
10 US ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX Source: Institute for Supply Management
11 US LABOUR MARKET (CHANGE IN US EMPLOYMENT, 000S) Sep Oct Nov Dec 'Jan08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 'Jan09 Feb Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
12 US REAL CONSUMER SPENDING (PER CENT CHANGE) Sources: BEA; CBoC.
13 US FEDERAL DEFICIT (UNIFIED, $BILLIONS) Sources: CBO; CBoC.
14 US REAL GDP (PER CENT CHANGE) Sources: BEA; CBoC.
15 CANADIAN OUTLOOK Canada at the bottom; growth recovery expected in second half of 2009 Exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus slowly pulling us out of recession Recovery in key exports will help Employment will lag recovery and the unemployment rate will peak at just over 9% next year Real GDP growth rebounding to 2.9% next year
16 RAW MATERIALS PRICE INDEX (PER CENT CHANGE) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
17 REAL EXPORTS (PER CENT CHANGE) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
18 INTEREST RATES (90-DAY T-BILL) QUARTERLY f 10f 11f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics i Canada.
19 THE LOONIE AND THE OIL PRICE WTI $US, $US/$C Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.
20 CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CANADA Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics i Canada.
21 ACTIVE FISCAL SIMULUS: THE BUDGET Stimulus of 1.5% of GDP in 2009 around $20 billion Largely temporary stimulus measures, via spending, butsome permanent moves, e.g. tax cuts Back into fiscal balance but only beyond medium term $12 billion in infrastructure: must be implemented quickly to be effective
22 GOVERNMENT FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION ($ BILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS, ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
23 REAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON GOODS AND SERVICES CANADA (PER CENT CHANGE, ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
24 FEDERAL AND REGIONAL BALANCES NATIONAL ACCOUNTS BASIS ($ BILLIONS) Federal Provinces Sources: Statistics ti ti Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
25 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CANADA, , job losses Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics ti ti Canada.
26 HELP WANTED INDEX VS. EMPLOYMENT (000S, 2007 = 100) Sources: Wanted Technologies; The Conference Board of Canada.
27 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VS. NATURAL RATE (PERCENT), Natural rate Unemployment Rate Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics ti ti Canada.
28 INDEX OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CANADA JAN 2003 AUG 09 (2002 = 100) Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
29 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH CANADA f 10f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
30 HOUSING STARTS VS DEMOGRAPHIC REQUIREMENTS CANADA (000S) Household formation f 09f 10f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
31 PRE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS (PER CENT SHARE OF NET DOMESTIC INCOME) Peaked at 18 per cent in 2008Q3 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
32 REAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT GROWTH (CANADA ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
33 REAL GDP GROWTH RATE CANADA Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
34 BRITISH COLUMBIA OUTLOOK British Columbia is facing its worst performance since 1982; the forestry, manufacturing, and construction sectors are suffering. Residential construction has dropped sharply as the housing market crashed at the beginning i of the year. Very weak domestic demand in Next year will be much brighter for B.C. as it hosts the 2010 Olympic Games and its export sector gets a boost from the U.S. housing market s anticipated recovery.
35 MANUFACTURING AND FORESTRY British Columbia ($2002, percentage change) 20 Manufacturing Forestry Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
36 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT British Columbia (percentage change) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
37 HOUSING STARTS British Columbia (thousands) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Database.
38 LABOUR MARKETS British Columbia (percentage change left axis and rate on right axis) Employment UR f 10f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
39 RETAIL SALES British Columbia (percentage change) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
40 TRAVEL British Columbia (percentage change, overnight province visits) Canada British Columbia f 09f 10f 11f 12f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
41 REAL GDP British Columbia (percentage change) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
42 VISIT US AT
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