The Economic & Financial Outlook
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1 The Economic & Financial Outlook Beata Caranci SVP & Chief Economist TD Economics September 217 Key Themes Synchronized global economic acceleration has put monetary policy normalization in focus Canada leads the pack; Bank of Canada responds swiftly But, headwinds evident Ontario housing market adjusting faster and deeper than B.C. experience Trade/manufacturing shows signs of cooling How long can the consumer sugar-rush last? U.S. economic growth evolving as expected Key segments of economy look solid: employment, consumer spending, investment Government policy remains source of uncertainty Hurricane events don t cause recessions 2
2 Stable Tracking Of Global Growth 4. Global Real GDP, Annual % Change As of August Forecast As of June Source: TD Economics. 3 Canada Tops The Leader Board Average Annual Growth %, 16Q3-17Q2 Real GDP Growth Underlying Trend Growth. Canada U.S. Eurozone UK Japan Source: Haver Analytics, TD Economic 4
3 Broad Strength Evident Across Provinces Real GDP*, Y/Y % Change. Alberta British Columbia Canada Quebec Ontario 218F 217F Manitoba Saskatchewan Atlantic Source: Forecast by TD Economics as of September 11, 217. *Please note that the forecast is preliminary and subject to change. 5 Canadian Economic Forecasts Steadily Revised Higher GDP Forecast, Y/Y % Change TD Economics Consensus January February March April May June July August Source: Consensus Economics, TD Economics. TD Tracking 217: 3.1 (May: ) 218: 2. (May: 1.9) Bank of Canada 217: 2.8 (April: 2.6) 218: 2. (April: 1.9) 6
4 Bank Of Canada Sees Enough To Scratch Seven-Year Itch Overnight Rate, % Forecast 2. Current Forecast* June Forecast Source: Haver Analytics. * Forecast by TD Economics as of September Canadian Yields Cross Above U.S. Counterparts 3. % Canada 2-Year Government Bond Yield Forecast US 2-Year Government Bond Yield Source: TD Economics, Haver Analytics. 8
5 1% 8% 6% Strengthening CAD Offers Tighter Financial Conditions % Change since U.S. Election Trade-weighted CAD* USDCAD CADUSD Current* Q Q % 2% % -2% Housing risk gain market attention BoC hikes rates BoC communication -4% change Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Source: TD Economics, FRB, BoC. *US$ (76.1%), Euro (9.3%), Yen (5.3%), Yuan (3.3%), Peso (3.3%), Pound (2.7%). Current: as of September 11, BoC Outlook Survey Becomes Important Guide To Policy Decisions 7 Balance of Opinion, Next 12-month Outlook, % 6 5 Improvement in sales Plans to increase employment Historic Average (Expansions) Average When BoC Cut In Q2 Source: Bank of Canada, TD Economics 1
6 Upside Strength Coming From Consumer Spending & Business Investment 4.5 Contribution to Growth, Q1-Q2 217 Average, % Others Business Investment Residential Investment Consumption May 217 Actual Data Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics. 11 Income Growth Has Supported Consumer Spending 12 Average Change, C$ 27 Billions. 215Q4-216Q2 216Q3-217Q2 11 Average Change, C$ 27 Billions Other Recreation Autos Furnishings Household spending Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics. Disposable Income 215Q4-216Q2 Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics. 216Q3-217Q2 12
7 Provincial Employment Generally Strong Employment, 217 Year-To-Date % Change British Columbia Prince Edward Island Quebec Canada Ontario Manitoba Alberta Saskatchewan Atlantic ex. PEI Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics, Haver Analytics. 13 Residential Investment Goosed Ontario, Putting Into Question Sustainability Ontario Real GDP Growth; Y/Y % Change Residential Investment GDP (ex. Residential Investment) GDP Q1 Source: Statistics Canada, OMF, TD Economics 14
8 Data Since Ontario's Fair Housing Plan Harder Landing Than B.C. Experience 25, Existing Home Sales, Units Ontario 2, 15, 1, Canada (ex. Ont. & B.C.) 5, B.C Source: CREA, TD Economics 15 Demand-Supply Dynamics In The West 12 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, Y/Y % Change. 1 8 Saskatchewan British Columbia Alberta Source: TD Economics, Haver Analytics. 16
9 Mortgage Holders Have Room To Absorb Higher Rates 2, National Aggregate, Mil of C$ 18, 16, 14, 12, Principal Portion Interest Portion 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics Canadian Dollar May Slow Exports As A Growth Drivers Index, (Jan-212 = 1) FX sensitive Non FX sensitive Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, TD Economics. Note: 3-month moving average of exports are expressed in nominal terms. 18
10 Waiting For Capacity Pressures To Fuel Investment Capacity Utilization, %. Furniture Food, Chemicals Total Manufacturing Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics 19 U.S. Economy: The Steady-Eddie Of The Pack Real GDP Forecast, Y/Y % Change Consensus Economics Jan-17 Consensus Economics Jul-17 TD - Dec forecast TD - latest Source: Consensus Economics Forecast, TD Economics 2
11 Rebound In Drilling Activity Lends A Helping Hand Real GDP, Y/Y % Change Mining, Oil & Gas GDP (ex. Mining, Oil & Gas) GDP YTD Source: BEA, TD Economics 21 Better Global Growth Momentum Lifts U.S. Exports 6 Real Goods and Services Exports, Y/Y % Change Global Composite PMIs Exports - left axis Global PMI - right axis Source: BEA/Haver Analytics, TD Economics 22
12 Business Investment Optimism Remains In Tact % Planning Capital Expenditures next 3 to 6 Months * Reporting Now is a Good Time To Expand Source: NFIB Survey, TD Economics. *3-month Moving Average 23 A Good Case For Lower U.S. Corporate Tax Rates Corporate Tax Rate, % United States France Italy Japan United Kingdom Germany Canada Source: OECD, TD Economics. 24
13 Housing Maintains Significant Growth Potential 2,5 Thousands Share of Single Family - right axis Housing Starts - left axis Forecast % 1 2, Fundamental Demand - left axis 9 1,5 8 1, Note: Forecast of fundamental demand assumes age group headship rates remain constant. Source: Census Bureau, TD Economics Some Areas Have Topped Out: Tighter Credit Standards Have Slowed Subprime Auto Loans 5 Outstanding balances, Y/Y % Change Delinquency Rate - Subprime - right axis Subprime - left axis All other credit qualities - left axis % Source: Equifax, TD Economics. Note: *Subprime ERS< 62, other credit ERS
14 Federal Reserve Not Done Raising Rates 3. % TD Forecast (midpoint) US OIS Curve FOMC Median Projections Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, TD Economics 27 Change In Inflation Dynamics Risks Policy Error.3 Percentage Point Response in Core Inflation t= t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4 t=5 t=6 t=7 t=8 t=9 Source: FRB, TD Economics. *Rolling estimates until 216Q4 of a 2 standard deviation shock to the output gap on core CPI 28
15 Are Bond Yields Poised To Pop Higher? Term Premium Risks % Source: FRB, FRBNY, TD Economics. 29 Caution Required On Policy Normalization 6 % NBER Recessions Real Effective Fed Funds Rate R* Forecast Source: TD Economics, BLS, FRB. R* is the natural real rate of interest using long run growth and inflation. 3
16 This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. 31
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