Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change. Consumer Price Index Percent change

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1 National Economic Trends Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Real GDP Growth Compounded annual rates of change 6 5 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Consumer Price Index Percent change Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Percent Change Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Economy at a Glance 1

2 National Economic Trends Industrial Production Percent change Percent Change Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 3. 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Interest Rates Percent Percent Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Economy at a Glance 2

3 National Economic Trends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Change, Thousands of Persons Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force Civilian Unemployment Rate Percent Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Economy at a Glance 3

4 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from a year ago Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes Industrial Production Index (left) ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Index 212= Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 4

5 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Change in Private Inventories Percent of GDP Change in Private Inventories (Percent of GDP) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 5

6 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Real Final Sales of Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Real Final Sales and GDP Compounded annual rates of change Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 213 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real GDP Revisions Compounded annual rates of change Advance Second Third Annual Revision Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 6

7 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Industrial Production and ISM Index Percent change Percent Change Index 212= Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Nominal Gross Domestic Product Compounded annual rates of change Gross Domestic Product 3 5 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 213 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 7

8 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Percent Change Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total private Hours Oct 215 Jan 213 Apr 213 Jul 213 Oct 213 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 8

9 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Real Change in Private Inventories Billions of 29 dollars Billions of Chained 29 Dollars 2 Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio Ratio Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 213 May 213 Sep 213 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 9

10 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Coutributiou of Compoueuts to Real GDP Growth Percentage points compounded annual rates Iuveutories Cousumptiou Iuvestmeut Goverumeut Exports Imports 4 3 Percentage Points at Annual Rate Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Coutributiou of Compoueuts to Real GDP Growth rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Final Sales Consumption Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Net Exports Exports Imports Changes in Inventory Residual Real GDP Growth Contributions of Components to GDP Growth 1

11 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Interest Rates Percent 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate Percent Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Weekly data October 217 October Treasury Yield Curve Percent m 1y 2y 5y 7y 1y Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 12

12 National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Standard and Poor's 5 Total Return Index Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 217 fred.stlouisfed.org The S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC series are Copyright 214, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. All rights reserved. Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 13

13 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices 4 Gross Domestic Product: Chain-type Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases: Chain-type Price Index NIPA Chain Price Indexes Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 6 Consumer Price Index Percent change from a year ago Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy 5 4 Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 14

14 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices Producer Price Index, New and Old Methodology Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org *Data Prior to Nov. 21 has transitioned from Stage of Processing to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand aggregation system Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour 8 Employment Cost Index: Compensation: Private Industry Workers Nonfarm Business Sector: Compensation Per Hour 7 6 Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 15

15 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices 3. Gross Domestic Product: Chain-type Price Index Gross Domestic Purchases: Chain-type Price Index NIPA Chain Price Indexes Compounded annual rates of change 2.5 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Oil & Natural Gas Prices: Spot & Futures Dollars per barrel Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma (left) Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (right) Oil Futures (left) Gas Futures (right) Dollars per Barrel, Percent Dollars per Million BTU, Percent Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 16

16 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Compounded Annual Rate of Change Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 7.5 Consumption Chain Price Index Compounded annual rates of change Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index 5. Compounded Annual Rate of Change Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 17

17 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices Producer Prce Index, Final Demand Compounded annual rates of change Compounded Annual Rate of Change Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 15 Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Cost Manufacturing Sector: Unit Labor Cost Unit Labor Cost Compounded annual rates of change 1 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 18

18 National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices Employment Cost Index Percent change from a year ago Percent Change from Year Ago Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Q3 216 Q1 217 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Compensation per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Nonfarm Business Sector: Compensation Per Hour Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: Board of Governors, EIA 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 19

19 National Economic Trends - Labor Markets Employment Percent change from a year ago All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls Civilian Employment Level Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Rates Civilian Unemployment Rate (left) Civilian Employment-Population Ratio (right) Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (right) Percent of labor force Percent Percent Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 2

20 National Economic Trends - Labor Markets Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force (Percent of labor force) (Weeks) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 21

21 National Economic Trends - Labor Markets Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls Change, Thousands of Persons Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands All Employees: Manufacturing Change, Thousands of Persons Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 22

22 National Economic Trends - Labor Markets Change in Household Employment Thousands 1, 8 6 Change, Thousands of Persons Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul 217 Oct Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 2. Civilian Labor Force Civilian Noninstitutional Population Labor Force and Population Percent change from a year ago 1.5 Percent Change from Year Ago Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 23

23 National Economic Trends - Labor Markets Available Labor Supply and Components Percent of labor force (Percent of labor force) Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Job Openings Rate (right scale) Unemployment Rate (left scale) Unemployment Rate & Job Openings Rate Percent (Percent) (Percent) Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 24

24 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Real Disposable Personal Income (Percent change from a year ago) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Total (right scale) Durables (left scale) Real Consumption Percent change from year ago, quarterly data (Percent) 2 (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 25

25 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Retail and Food Services Sales Percent change from year ago, quarterly average 15 1 Break Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Data from Jan to the present are on a NAICS basis; data prior to Jan are on an SIC basis and are not strictly comparable (see End Note). Debt Service Payments and Household Debt Outstanding Household Debt Outstanding (left scale) Debt Service Payments (right scale) (Percent change from year ago, quarterly data) (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 26

26 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Real Disposable Personal Income Percent change Real Disposable Personal Income Percent Change Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Personal Saving Rate Percent Personal Saving Rate Percent Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 27

27 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Real Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Compounded Annual Rate of Change.5. Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Consumption Percent change Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 28

28 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Retail & Food Services Percent change Percent Change Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Durables Consumption & Vehicle Sales Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks (right) Percent change Percent Change Millions of Units Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 29

29 National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Index (6-Month Lag) Index 1966:Q1= Jan 212 Jul 212 Jan 213 Jul 213 Jan 214 Jul 214 Jan 215 Jul 215 Jan 216 Jul 216 Jan 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Durables Consumption Compounded annual rates of change Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 3

30 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending Investmeut Percent of nominal GDP Total Private (Percent of nominal GDP) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 15 Real Private Fixed Iuvestmeut (DISCONTINUED) Fixed Private Iuvestmeut Private Fixed Iuvestmeut Percent change from year ago 1 5 Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 3

31 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending Real Nouresideutial Fixed aud Equipmeut Iuvestmeut Percent change from year ago 3 2 Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Resideutial Fixed Iuvestmeut Percent change from year ago Real Private Resideutial Fixed Iuvestmeut (DISCONTINUED) 2 1 Percent Change from Year Ago Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Long-Run View 31

32 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending 25 Gross Govt. Saving Gross Private. Saving BOCA Gross Saving Rates and Balance on Current Account (NIPA) Percent of GDP 2 15 (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Private Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Real Private Fixed Investment (DISCONTINUED) Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 213 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 32

33 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 2 15 Percent Change from Year Ago Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Q1 214 Q3 214 Q1 215 Q3 215 Q1 216 Q3 216 Q1 217 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Equipment Investment Compounded annual rates of change Real Equipment Investment 15 1 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 213 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 33

34 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real Residential Fixed Investment Compounded annual rates of change Real Private Residential Fixed Investment (DISCONTINUED) 15 1 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 213 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 34

35 National Economic Trends - Investment Spending Housing Starts and New Home Sales Millions, annual rate Millions, annual rate Millions, annual rate Sep 214 Jan 215 May 215 Sep 215 Jan 216 May 216 Sep 216 Jan 217 May 217 Sep Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Short-Run View 35

36 National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt 3,2 Total State & Local Federal Govt. Consumption and Investment Billions of 29 dollars 2,8 Billions of Chained 29 Dollars 2,4 2, 1,6 1, Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 4 Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures Total Expenditures Total Receipts Fed. Expenditures Fed. Receipts Percent of GDP 35 3 (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Government Budgets Billions of Dollars National Income Accounts Calendar Years Unified Budget Fiscal Years State and Local Federal Federal Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit (-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit (-) 2 1,33.1 1, ,68.2 1, , , , , ,31.8 2, , , , , ,87.6 2, , , , , , , ,88.1 2, , , ,27.4 2, , , ,78.8 1, ,33.5 2, ,46.9 2, ,81.9 1, , , ,568. 2, ,9.6 1, , , ,524. 2, ,99.1 2, , , ,15. 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,33.5 3,63.1-1,299.6 Receipts and Outlays ,3.5 2, , , , ,45. 3, ,87.

37 National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt 212 2,57.2 2, , , ,9.1 2, , , , , , ,21.5 3, , , , , , , ,35.7 2, , , ,268. 3, , , , , , , Q1 2,32.1 2, , , Q2 2, , ,44.4 4, Q3 2, , ,43.6 4, Q4 2,438. 2, , , Q1 2, , ,4.9 4, Q2 2, , , , Q3 2, , , , Q4 2, , , , Q1 2, , , , Q2 2, , , , Q3 2,51.1 2, ,64.2 4, Receipts and Outlays 36

38 National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt 11 Total Held by Public Federal Debt Percent of GDP (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 2.5 Unified Budget NIPA Federal Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) Percent of GDP (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed 217 fred.stlouisfed.org NIPA: Net government saving. Change in Federal Debt Percent of GDP Debt and Budgets 37

39 National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt 15. Total Held by Public (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 6 Federal Surplus (+) / (-), Unified Basis Excluding Interest Payments Total Billions of dollars, fiscal years (Percent) , -1,2-1,4-1, Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Total Public Debt Federal Government Debt Held by Agencies and Trusts Billions of dollars, end of month or fis cal year Excludes Agency-is s ued debt Held by Public Total Federal Reserve Banks Held by Private Investors Total Foreign and International , , , , , , ,15.6 5, , ,82.1 1, , , , , , ,79.9 6, , , , , ,28. 6, March 16, , , ,796. 1, ,725. June 16, , ,96.6 1, , ,595. September 16, , ,981. 2,72.3 9,94. 5,652.8 December 17, , , ,28.8 1, , March 17,61.2 4, , , , ,948.3 June 17, ,6.6 12,572. 2,75.9 1, ,18.7 September 17, , , , , ,69.2 December 18, , ,23.8 2, , , March 18, , ,9.2 2, ,63.8 6,172.6 June 18,152. 5,77. 13,75. 2, , ,163.1 September 18,15.6 5, , ,82.1 1, ,15.9 December 18, , , , ,211. 6, March 19, , , , , ,286.5 Debt and Budgets 38 June 19, , , , ,47.4 6,281.1

40 National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt September 19, , , , ,79.9 6,158.1 December 19, , , , , , March 19, , , , ,95.3 6,79. June 19, , ,37.9 2, ,91.1 6,171.6 September 2, , , , ,28. 6,323.5 Debt and Budgets 39

41 National Economic Trends - International Trade C rrent Account, Trade and Investment Income Balances Investment Income (left scale) Goods and Services (left scale) Current Account (right scale) (Billions of dollars, quarterly rate) (Percent of GDP) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Exchange Rates Yen (right scale) Ecu (right scale) Euro (right scale) Major Currency Index (left scale) (Index, March 1973 = 1) (Yen/US$, 1 x (Ecu or Euro/US$) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Exchange Rates and Trade 4

42 National Economic Trends - International Trade Goods Export Shares, 214 Unit ed Kingo m: 3.8 % All Ot her: % Mexico : % China: 7.94 % France: 2.14 % Japan: 4.34 % Germany: 3.39 % Ot her OECD: % Canada: % Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Goods Import Shares, 214 Unit ed Kingo m: 2.46 % All Ot her: % Mexico : % France: 2.12 % China: 2.95 % Ot her OECD: % Japan: 5.98 % Canada: % Germany: 5.17 % Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Exchange Rates and Trade 41

43 National Economic Trends - International Trade Trade Balance Billions of dollars Goods and Services Goods (Billions of Dollars) Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 15 Exports Imports Goods Trade Percent Change from a year ago 1 (Percent Change from a year ago) Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 42

44 National Economic Trends - International Trade Current Account Balance Billions of dollars (Billions of dollars) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 7 Exports Imports Services Trade Percent Change from a year ago 6 5 (Percent change from a year ago) Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 Jan 217 Apr 217 Jul Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 43

45 National Economic Trends - International Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: United Kingdom Compound annual rates of change (Percent) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: Germany Compound annual rates of change Germany (Percent) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 44

46 National Economic Trends - International Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: Canada Compound annual rates of change (Percent) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: France Compound annual rates of change France (Percent) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 45

47 National Economic Trends - International Trade Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: Japan Compound annual rates of change (Percent) Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners: Mexico Compound annual rates of change Mexico (Percent) 2 1 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 217 fred.stlouisfed.org More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 46

48 National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits Output/Hour(left scale) Utilization Rate(level)(right scale) Output per Hour and Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing Percent change from a year ago(right)/percent(left) (Percent change from a year ago) Percent of Capacity Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BLS, Board of Governors 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 1. Nominal Real Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from a year ago 7.5 (Percent change from a year ago) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BLS, Board of Governors 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 46

49 National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits Output per Hour, Nonfarm Buisness and Nonfinancial Corporations Percent change from a year ago (Percent change from a year ago) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BLS, Board of Governors 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 47

50 National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits Noufarm Ouput Per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Nonfarm Ouput per hour 4 3 Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Manufacturing Output per Hour Compounded annual rates of change Manufacturing Ouput per Hour Compounded Annual Rate of Change Q1 215 Q1 216 Q Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 48

51 National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent (Percent) (Percent) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 13 Profits ( Before Tax) Profits (After Tax) Corporate Profits (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent of GDP (Percent of GDP) Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 49

52 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections 2.8 Change in Real GDP (Q4/Q4) Percent Gross Domestic Product FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, Midpoint Long Run (Percent) Jan 212 Jan 21 Jan 214 Jan 215 Jan 216 Jan 217 Jan 218 Jan 219 Jan 22 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 1 Unemployment Rate (Q4) Percent Unemployment Rate FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint Long Run 9 8 (Percent) Jan 211 Jan 212 Jan 213 Jan 214 Jan 215 Jan 216 Jan 217 Jan 218 Jan 219 Jan 22 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed, Univ of Michigan 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Nov 217 Projections 5

53 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections Change in PCE Price Index (Q4/Q4) Percent (Percent) Jan 212 Jan 213 Jan 214 Jan 215 Jan 216 Jan 217 Jan 218 Jan 219 Jan 22 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed, Univ of Michigan 217 fred.stlouisfed.org 2.3 Change in PCE Price Index Exluding Food and Energy Prices (Q4/Q4) Percent PCE Core FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures less Food and Energy Inflation Rate, Range, (Percent) Jan 212 Jan 213 Jan 214 Jan 215 Jan 216 Jan 217 Jan 218 Jan 219 Jan 22 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Sources: BEA, St. Louis Fed, Univ of Michigan 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Nov 217 Projections 51

54 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections Median 2.8 Change in Real GDP for 216 Percent (Percent) Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Change in Real GDP for 217 Percent Median (Percent) Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 52

55 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections Unemployment Rate for 216 (Q4) Percent (Percent) Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Unemployment Rate for 217 (Q4) Percent Median (Percent) Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 53

56 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections Change in PCE Price Index for 216 Percent (Percent) Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Change in PCE Price Index for 217 Percent Median (Percent) Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 54

57 National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections Change in PCE Core Price Index for 216 Percent (Percent) Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Change in PCE Core Price Index for 217 Percent Median (Percent) Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions 217 fred.stlouisfed.org Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 55

58 National Economic Trends - Real GDP Nowcast Fourth Quarter, 217 Forecasts St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast Revised Weekly Predictions for the Fourth Quarter, Index Nov 2. Nov Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 217 fred.stlouisfed.org St. Louis Fed s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see, Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth", Real GDP Nowcast 56

59 National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables Nomiual GDP Real GDP Fiual Sales Chauge iu Privat e Iuveut ories Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Billions of 29 $ Billions of $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago Last qtr Year/year ago Cousumpt iou Durables Cousumpt iou Privat e Fixed Iuvest meut Chauge iu Nou-Resideut ial Fixed Iuvest meut Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Billions of $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago GDP, Final Sales, Private Inventories, Consumption, and Investment 57

60 National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables GDP Chain Price Index Employment Cost Index ECI: Wages ECI: Benefit s Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Index Annual rate Year ago Index Annual rate Year ago Index Annual rate Year ago Index Annual rate Year ago Export s Import s Nonfarm Out put per Hour Nonfarm Compensat ion per Hour Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Billions of 29 $ Annual rate Year ago Billions of 25 $ Annual rate Year ago Index Annual rate Year ago Index Annual rate Year ago GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Trade, Productivity, and Compensation 59

61 National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables Ho sehold Snrvery Employment Nonfarm Payroll Employment Nonfarm Aggregat e Honrs Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Thousands Change Annual rate Year ago Thousands Change Annual rate Year ago Index Monthly rate Annual rate Year ago Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Employment and Nonfarm Aggregate Hours 61