Charts Prepared for Beau Duncan

Transcription

1 Charts Prepared for Beau Duncan Yardeni Research, Inc. November 3, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Charts Prepared for Beau Duncan 1. Coincident Indicators 2. Industrial Production 3. untitled 4. GDP:. China: Industrial Production 6. S&P Forward Earnings & Leading Economic Indicators 7. S&P Forward Earnings & Leading Economic Indicators 8. S&P Forward Earnings & Coincident Economic Indicators 9. S&P Forward Earnings & Business Sales 1. S&P Forward Earnings & Real Capital Spending 11. S&P Forward Earnings & Employment 12. Global Super PMIs 13. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 14. Euro Area Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index continued...

3 1. Germany: Industrial Production 16. United Kingdom: PMI 17. United Kingdom: Industrial Production 18. United Kingdom: Exports 19. China: CPI 2. China: PPI 21. China: Industrial Production & Retail Sales 22. China: Automobile Sales & Production 23. Brazil: Exports & Imports 24. Brazil: Industrial Production 2. Emerging Countries: Exports 26. Emerging & Advanced Countries: Industrial Production 27. OECD Industrial Production 28. Corporate Profits 29. Corporate Pre-Tax Profits Receipts From Rest of World 3. Corporate Pre-Tax Profits Receipts From Rest of World 31. Corporate Pre-Tax Profits Receipts From Rest of World 32. S&P Revenues vs. Business Sales 33. S&P Forward Earnings vs. World Exports 34. S&P Forward Earnings & Business Sales 3. S&P Forward Earnings & Industrial Production 36. Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours VS. Forward Earnings 37. S&P Forward Earnings & Real Capital Spending 38. S&P Forward Earnings & Nondefense Capital Goods Orders 39. S&P Forward Earnings & Merchandise Exports continued...

4 4. S&P Forward Earnings & ISM Manufacturing Index 41. S&P Forward Earnings & ISM Prices 42. S&P Forward Earnings & CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index 43. S&P Forward Earnings & Fed Policy 44. Private Payroll Employment 4. Nonfarm Payroll Employment 46. Short-Term Business Credit & Inventories 47. M&A Activity: World 48. M&A Activity: United States 49. Productivity Measures Copyright Yardeni Research, Inc All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Additional Information Available on Request. Doc: CLIENTBEAUDUN_C Assembled Thursday, 11/3/217 9:49 PM

5 1 COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1 Oct Source: Conference Board. -1

6 1 US: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Oct Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. -1

7 2 2 S&P AGGREGATE REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES OF GOODS Sep S&P Aggregate Revenues* (.) Business Sales of Goods** (6.4) * Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P revenues per share by the S&P divisor for each quarter. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor s.

8 1 US: REAL GDP 1 Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. -

9 2 CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION* Oct * Value added basis. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

10 4 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS / Forward Earnings* Leading Economic Indicators * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial and Conference Board.

11 1 1 S&P OPERATING EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6 Oct Q Leading Economic Indicators (pushed 12 months ahead) S&P Operating Earnings Source: Thomson Financial and Conference Board. -4

12 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS / S&P Forward Earnings* Coincident Economic Indicators * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial and Conference Board.

13 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) Business Sales** / * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: Thomson Financial and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

14 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) Real Capital Spending** / * 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. ** Nonresidential fixed investment including producers durable equipment, software and structures. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Financial.

15 6 4 3 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT S&P Forward Earnings* Nonfarm Payroll Employment Oct 11/ * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16 6 GLOBAL SUPER PMIs* (unweighted average) 6 8 Oct Average of Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing US, UK, & Euro Zone US, UK, Euro Zone, Japan, & China * An index above indicates an increase in activity. An index below indicates a decrease in activity. Source: Haver Analytics.

17 CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX Composite Nov Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics

18 6 EURO AREA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 6 6 Oct Source: Haver Analytics. 4

19 2 GERMANY: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Sep -1 Total Manufacturing Source: Haver Analytics. -3

20 64 62 UNITED KINGDOM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES* Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Oct * An index above indicates an increase in activity. An index below indicates a decrease in activity. Source: Haver Analytics.

21 1 UNITED KINGDOM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1 Sep Source: Haver Analytics. -1

22 6 UNITED KINGDOM MERCHANDISE EXPORTS Sep Source: Office for National Statistics and Haver Analytics. -4

23 1 8 CHINA: CPI Oct Source: Haver Analytics. -4

24 12 1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: CHINA Oct PPI (6.9) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. -8-1

25 2 CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & RETAIL SALES 2 2 Industrial Production* (6.2) Retail Sales (1.) Oct 1 Oct * Value added basis. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

26 6 CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION 6 4 Sales (2.) Production (.7) Oct Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. -4

27 1 BRAZIL: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & IMPORTS 1 7 Exports Imports 7 Oct Source: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. -

28 2 BRAZIL: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Sep -1 Total Manufacturing Source: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. -2

29 3 EMERGING COUNTRIES: EXPORTS Sep Value Volume Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -3

30 2 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EX CONSTRUCTION Sep -1 Emerging Economies Advanced Economies Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -2

31 OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Aug Source: OECD

32 8 CORPORATE PROFITS* Total Profits Pre-Tax Q * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

33 4 3 CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD vs. GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Aug Receipts* OECD Industrial Production * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Census Bureau and OECD.

34 4 CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD vs. US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS Oct Receipts* Exports * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Census Bureau and OECD.

35 CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD vs. TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR ROW Profits Receipts* Trade Weighted Dollar (inverted scale) Oct * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Census Bureau and OECD.

36 2 1 S&P REVENUES vs. BUSINESS SALES Sep Q Business Sales* S&P Revenues (dollars per share) * Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor s Corporation.

37 4 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS vs. WORLD EXPORTS Nov Aug -2 S&P Forward Earnings Industrial Production: OECD (2=1) Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. -4

38 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) US Business Sales** / * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

39 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION S&P Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production Oct * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

40 INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS vs. FORWARD EARNING / S&P Forward Earnings* Aggregate Weekly Hours: Private Industries * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation.

41 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) Real Capital Spending** / * 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. ** Nonresidential fixed investment including producers durable equipment, software, and structures. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

42 1 8 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS /23 Oct S&P Forward Earnings* Nondefense Capital Goods Orders * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

43 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS /23-2 S&P Forward Earnings* US Merchandise Exports * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

44 7 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX / S&P Forward Earnings* ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

45 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM PRICES S&P Forward Earnings* ISM Manufacturing Price Index / * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

46 6 4 3 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX S&P Forward Earnings* CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index /23 11/ * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

47 S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & FED POLICY Federal Funds Target (yearly change) S&P Forward Earnings* / * 2-week forward consensus S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

48 4 3 PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Oct Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -6-7

49 6 4 NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (monthly change, thousands, sa) Oct Total Private Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

50 26 24 SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 11/ C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Sep Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau. 4

51 7 6 4 M&A ACTIVITY: WORLD* (billion US dollars, ratio scale) Q Quarter Sum (369.4) Annualized Quarterly (481.) * Excludes spinoffs. Source: Dealogic.

52 M&A ACTIVITY: UNITED STATES* (billion US dollars, ratio scale) 4-Quarter Sum (162.3) Annualized Quarterly (2327.8) Q * Excludes spinoffs. Source: Dealogic.

53 1 PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES 1 8 Nonfarm Business Productivity (2-quarter percent change, annual rate) Manufacturing Productivity Proxy* (6-month percent change, annual rate) Q * Manufacturing industrial production divided by payroll employment in manufacturing. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Board.

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