Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments
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1 Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments Yardeni Research, Inc. April 13, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni President Yardeni Research, Inc eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Special Presentation for Fidelity Investments 1. untitled. untitled 3. untitled. untitled 5. untitled. untitled 7. untitled 8. untitled 9. untitled 1. untitled 11. untitled 1. untitled Copyright Yardeni Research, Inc. 1. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Additional Information Available on Request. Doc: PRESENTFIDELITY Assembled Tuesday, /1/1 8:17 PM
3 . 5 Figure 1. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent, daily) Yield (1.79) / Source: Haver Analytics.
4 18 1 Figure. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (percent, monthly) Yield (1.89) Mar Source: Haver Analytics.
5 Figure 3. US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH 1-Year US Treasury Bond Yield (percent) (1.89) Nominal GDP (yearly percent change) (3.1) Q Mar Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
6 1 1 Figure. SPREAD BETWEEN US TREASURY BOND YIELD & NOMINAL GDP GROWTH* Spread (-.93) - Q * 1-year bond yield minus yearly percent change in nominal GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
7 8. 7 Figure 5. EUROZONE: 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) D QE1 QE France (.) Germany (.11) Italy (1.) Spain () / D = On July, 1, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. Source: Haver Analytics..
8 Figure. 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) France (.) Germany (.11) Japan (-.9) Sweden (.9) UK () US (1.79) / Source: Haver Analytics.. -
9 Figure 7. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (yearly percent change) Eurozone () United States (.3) Japan (.8) Feb Mar Feb Source: Statistical Office of European Communities and Statistisches Bundesamt. -
10 5 5 8 Figure 8. AGE WAVE, INFLATION, & BOND YIELD IN THE US Year Treasury Bond Yield*** Age Wave* Inflation Trend** Mar * Percent of labor force 1-3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI. *** Five-year moving average of ten-year government bond yield. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11 5.. Figure 9. US 1-YEAR TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) Year Bond Yield (1.79) 1-Year TIPS Yield (.) /1 / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - -
12 3. Figure 1. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) 3. Expected Inflation (7) / * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
13 1 Figure 11. US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BOND COMPOSITE (percent) Yield (8.19) / Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 3
14 Figure 1. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY (basis points) Spread () / Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
15 Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 1. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available requests@ on request.
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