Country Briefing: Eurozone
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1 Country Briefing: Eurozone September, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Real GDP 1- Industrial Production 3- Purchasing Managers Indexes Merchandise Trade 7 Retail Sales 8 Unemployment 9 Consumer & Business Confidence 1 Consumer Prices 11-1 ECB Central Bank Rate 13 Government Bond Yields 1 Stock Markets 1 September, 17 / Eurozone www.
3 Real GDP 1 Figure 1. REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar) Total (.) Q Domestic Demand (.) -1 1 Q Household Spending (1.) Q Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-.1) Q Source: Statistical Office of European Communities Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
4 7 3 Figure. Real GDP REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar) Government Spending (1.3) Exports of Goods & Services (.9) Q Q Imports of Goods & Services (.) Q Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. -3 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
5 Industrial Production 1 Figure 3. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1, sa) Total Excluding Construction Manufacturing Source: Statistical Office of European Communities Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Total Excluding Construction Manufacturing Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. - Page 3 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
6 1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=1, sa) Industrial Production Capital Goods Consumer Goods Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable Goods Intermediate Goods Energy Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. 9 8 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
7 1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Industrial Production 1-1 Capital Goods Consumer Goods Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable Goods Intermediate Goods Energy Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. -3 Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
8 Figure 7. Purchasing Managers Indexes EUROZONE: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* Aug * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: Haver Analytics. Figure 8. EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING & NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* 8 Aug 8 M-PMI NM-PMI * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: Haver Analytics. Page / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
9 Merchandise Trade 3 Figure 9. EUROZONE: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion euros, nsa) Balance (billion euros, sa) 17 Exports 17 1 Imports (yearly percent change) Exports Imports Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 7 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
10 11 Figure 1. Retail Sales EUROZONE: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (1=1, sa) Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities Figure 11. EUROZONE: RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (yearly percent change) Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. -. Page 8 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
11 1. 1. Figure 1. EUROZONE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) Unemployment Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities Figure 13. EUROZONE: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (millions, sa) Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.. Page 9 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
12 13 1 Figure 1. Consumer & Business Confidence EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* (long-term average=1, sa) Aug * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight %), service (3%), consumer (%), construction (%), and retail trade (%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission. 3 Figure 1. EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS (percent balance,sa) Industrial (.1) Services (1.9) Consumer (-1.) Retail Trade (1.) Construction (-3.3) 3 1 Aug Source: European Commission. - Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
13 Figure 1. EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Consumer Prices 3 Total Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 11 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
14 1 1 Figure 17. EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Energy Consumer Prices Housing Health Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. - Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
15 Figure 18. ECB REFINANCING RATE (daily, percent) ECB Central Bank Rate / Source: European Central Bank. -1 Page 13 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
16 Figure 19. Government Bond Yields EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, monthly) NIRP E D QE QEE Yields France Germany Italy Spain Aug Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//1) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/1/1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics Figure. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) France (.8) Germany (.37) Italy (.) Spain (1.) D NIRP QE QEE Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//1) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/1/1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics. Brexit 9/ Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
17 Stock Markets Figure 1. EUROPE (Dow Jones Stoxx ) (euro-based) IRELAND (ISEQ Overall) / 9/ FRANCE (CAC ) ITALY (FTSE MIB) 9/ / GERMANY (DAX) 9/ NETHERLANDS (Amsterdam) 9/ GREECE (Athens, SE) SPAIN (Madrid General Index) 3 9/ / day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc. Page 1 / September, 17 / Eurozone www.
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