Predicting the Markets: Chapter 9 Charts: Predicting the Fed
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1 Predicting the Markets: Chapter 9 Charts: August 7, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-1 August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
3 3 Figure 1. FED CHAIRS & S&P (monthly, ratio scale) Jul Data above timeline are percentage changes in the S&P index during each term. Source: Standard & Poor s. Figure. FED CHAIRS & US TREASURY -YEAR YIELD (percent, weekly) / Monthly data from April 193 to December 191, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 1 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
4 Figure 3. FED CHAIRS & CPI (yearly percent change) Jun Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3 1 Figure. FED CHAIRS & WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale) 3 1 Jul Source: Haver Analytics. Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
5 1 Figure. FED CHAIRS & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS* (yearly percent change) 1 Jul * Production & nonsupervisory workers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure. FED CHAIRS & CRB RAW INDUSTRIAL SPOT PRICE INDEX (ratio scale, weekly) / Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 3 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
6 Figure 7. FED CHAIRS & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (weekly) / Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure. FED CHAIRS & DISCOUNT RATE* (percent, weekly) / * Discount window borrowing rate at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was discontinued after January, 3 and replaced by the rate charged for primary credit. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
7 Figure 9. FED CHAIRS & PRIME RATE (percent, weekly) / Source: Federal Reserve Board. 1 1 Figure. FED CHAIRS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) 1 1 Jul Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
8 Figure 11. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Great Moderation Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 1 Figure 1. REAL GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR (yearly percent change) 1 1 Great Moderation Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
9 3 Figure 13. FED CHAIRS & S&P P/E BASED ON TRAILING EARNINGS* 3 Q1 Average = * Using quarterly average of daily data for S&P price index, and -quarter trailing reported earnings through Q3-19, then operating earnings. Source: Standard & Poor s. 3 Figure 1. EXISTING MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES (thousand dollars, 1-month moving average) Jun Source: National Association of Realtors. Page 7 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
10 .. Figure. FED S ASSETS: -* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE QE Total Assets US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11//) = Fed starts buying $1.tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/1/9) = Fed starts buying $3bn in Treasuries. QE (11/3/) = Fed starts buying $bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE3 expanded (1/1/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure 1. FED S ASSETS: -* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE QE US Treasury Securities Agency Debt + MBS MBS * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11//) = Fed starts buying $1.tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/1/9) = Fed starts buying $3bn in Treasuries. QE (11/3/) = Fed starts buying $bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE3 expanded (1/1/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
11 1 1 1 Figure 17. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT -YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, monthly) NIRP E D QE QEE Bond Yields France Germany Italy Spain - Jul Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//) = quantitative easing. QEE (3//1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics. - Figure 1. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT -YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, daily) D NIRP QE QEE Bond Yields Greece Ireland Portugal Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//) = quantitative easing. QEE (3//1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Financial Times. /7 Page 9 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
12 3 Figure 19. ECB ASSETS: LOANS & SECURITIES (trillion euros. weekly) 3 ECB Holdings Loans to Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro Securities of Euro Area Residents in Euro D NIRP QE QEE 7/ 1 1 7/ D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7//1). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (//1). QE (1//). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3//1, corporate bond purchases started /1/1). Source: European Central Bank Figure. ECB ASSETS: TOTAL (trillion euros,weekly) D NIRP QE QEE D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7//1). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (//1). QE (1//). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3//1, corporate bond purchases started /1/1). Source: European Central Bank. 7/ Page / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
13 39 Figure 1. JAPAN: MONETARY BASE* (trillion yen, sa, ratio scale) A QQEE NIRP Jul QQE Z 9 YC * Adjusted for change in reserve requirements. Note: Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE (//13) = Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. QQEE (/31/1) = QQE expanded and extended version. NIRP (1/9/1) = Negative interest rate policy. YC (9/1/1) = Yield curve targeting. Source: Bank of Japan. Figure. NIKKEI & YEN (stock index in local currency) Nikkei 7 Yen/US Dollar (inverted scale) /7 9 / Source: Haver Analytics. 1 Page 11 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
14 Figure 3. CHINA: M & BANK LOANS (trillion yuan) M Bank Loans (nsa) Jun Jun Source: People s Bank of China. 3 Figure. CHINA M & BANK LOANS (yearly percent change in yuan) 3 3 M Bank Loans 3 Jun Jun Source: People s Bank of China. Page 1 / August 7, 17 / Chapter 9 Charts: www.
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