Predicting the Markets Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World

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1 Predicting the Markets Chapter Charts: September, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1- September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

3 Figure 1. TOTAL IMPORTS OF 7 COUNTRIES (billion dollars, monthly) T Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 19. Source: League of Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 193, p Figure. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: (7=, monthly) T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 19. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, M = Mark-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked. Source: Federal Reserve Board. 3 Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

4 17 1 Figure 3. US PRODUCER PRICES: (19=, monthly) Industrial Commodities Grains T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 19. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, M = Mark-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: (197=, annually) Source: Census Bureau. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

5 Figure. US COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS: (billion dollars, annually) Source: Census Bureau. Figure. DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED US COMMERCIAL BANKS: (million dollars, monthly) Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1937, Table 13, p. 99. Page 3 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

6 Figure 7. US UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: (percent, annual) Unemployment Rates Nonfarm Employees* Civilian Labor Force** * Persons 1 years old and older. ** Persons 1 years old and older. Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial times to 19. Figure. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (daily) T B M P Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 19. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, M = Mark-to-market suspended June 193. P = Pearl Harbor attacked. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

7 1 Figure 9. REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: ANNUALLY (billion 199 dollars) Source: Historical Statistics of the United States. Figure. REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: QUARTERLY (billion 1939 dollars, saar) Source: National Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

8 Figure 11. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: (percent, sa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 1. TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLLS: (millions, sa, ratio scale) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

9 1 1 Figure 13. S&P STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) Aug Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure 1. 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=, ratio scale) Aug Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

10 Figure. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX (197=, daily) C 9/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 1. Source: Commodity Research Bureau Figure 1. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, daily) C / Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 1. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

11 1 Figure 17. MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES (local currency) 9/ C China Emerging Markets Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 1. Source: MSCI. Figure 1. CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) C Aug * Value added basis. Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 1. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page 9 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

12 1. 1. Figure 19. CHINA: POPULATION (billions, ratio scale) Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Figure. CHINA: POPULATION (-year change, millions) year growth rate at annualized rate Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

13 9 Figure 1. CHINA: RURAL & URBAN POPULATION* (as a percent of total population) 9 Rural Urban 1 O C Note: O = China announced Open Door Policy during December 197. C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 1. * Estimates through, projections from 1 through 9. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure. CHINA: URBAN POPULATION (yearly change, millions) RURAL POPULATION Source: United Nations. Page 11 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

14 1 1 1 Figure 3. EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT -YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent, monthly) NIRP E D QE QEE Bond Yields France Germany Italy Spain - Aug Note: D (7//1) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (//1) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1//) = quantitative easing. QEE (3//1) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started /1/1. Source: Haver Analytics. - Figure. BRIC MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currency, daily) C 9/ Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 1. Source: MSCI. Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

15 1 1 Figure. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (=, swda*, ratio scale) Jun * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Figure. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (=, swda*, ratio scale) Jun Industrial Production Advanced Economies Emerging Economies * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Page 13 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

16 1 Figure 7. OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (199=, sa, ratio scale) 1 1 Jun Source: OECD Figure. WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME (=, sa, ratio scale) Jun Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

17 3 Figure 9. WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa, ratio scale) Apr Source: IMF Figure. G7 EXPORTS (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Jul Source: Haver Analytics.. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

18 Figure 31. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 1 19 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (197=) Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) Apr 9/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Figure 3. WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD (percent of total world exports using 1-month averages) Rest of World Apr 3 G7 Apr Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

19 Figure 33. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: GLOBAL (sa) Global PMIs Composite Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Aug Source: Markit and Haver Analytics Figure 3. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: ADVANCED ECONOMIES Advanced Economies PMIs Composite Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Aug Source: Markit and Haver Analytics. 7 Page 17 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

20 7 Figure 3. PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES Emerging Economies Composite Index Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Aug Source: Markit and Haver Analytics. 9 3 Figure 3. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS Jul * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

21 3 Figure 37. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS Jul US Europe Japan * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Figure 3. BRICs: LEADING INDICATORS Jul Brazil China India Russia * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 19 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

22 Figure 39. US EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP (as a percent of nominal GDP) Q Goods & Services Imports Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure. WORLD EXPORTS VOLUME & US REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS + IMPORTS (yearly percent change) Jul Growth Rates (y/y) World Exports: Volume US Real Exports + Imports Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

23 .. Figure 1. JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS (1-month sum, millions) Live Births Deaths Apr Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare... Figure. US: REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 1 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

24 1 1 1 Figure 3. EUROZONE: PRIVATE SECTOR* LOANS OUTSTANDING AT MFIs** (trillion euros, sa) Total Private Sector (.7) Households (including non-profit institutions) (.) Nonfinancial Corporations (.3) Others*** (.9) Jul * Total Private Sector includes Households (including non-profit institutions), Nonfinancial corporations, Other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds. ** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs). *** Others include other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds. Source: Haver Analytics and ECB. 1 1 Figure. EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION Eurozone (Jul=1.9) Germany (Jul=11.3) France (Jul=9.) Italy (Jul=.7) Spain (Jul=79.) Source: Haver Analytics. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

25 Figure. CHINA: REAL GDP yearly percent change quarterly percent change, saar Q Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics. Figure. CHINA: BANK LOANS (trillions, nsa) Aug US dollars Aug Yuan Source: People s Bank of China. Page 3 / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

26 1 Figure 7. CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) 1 Aug Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure. GLOBAL POPULATION: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS (as a percent of total population) Age Under & Older Source: United Nations, 13. Page / September, 17 / Chapter Charts:

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