US Economic Indicators: High Frequency

Transcription

1 US Economic Indicators: High Frequency February 17, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 4 US Unemployment Claims -6 US Petroleum Usage 7 US Electricity Output 8-9 US Railcar Loadings 1- US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 14 US Business Credit 1 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 16 US Commercial Paper 17 US Liquid Assets US Profits Cycle 2-22 S&P Forward Earnings 23 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 24 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 2 February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

3 - Key Global Indicators - 6 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & GLOBAL PRODUCTION Nov 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) 2/16 4 OECD Plus 6 Major Non-Members** Production (2=) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Includes 3 OECD countries plus Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and OECD. 6 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Nov 2/16 17 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Page 1 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

4 Figure 3. GLOBAL BOOM BUST BAROMETER* - Global Boom Bust Barometer / * Average of Baltic Dry Index, Brent crude oil nearby futures, and CRB raw industrials spot price index. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and The Baltic Exchange. 16 Figure 4. GLOBAL BOOM BUST INDICATORS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 14 Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel) Baltic Dry Index/ (1/4/198=) 2/16 2/ /1 * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau, The Baltic Exchange and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

5 1 Figure. INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS - US Leading Indicators - 1 2/1 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) 9 Jan 9 7 Conference Board LEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 6. INDEX OF LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1 14 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) 2/1 Jan Conference Board CEI (24=) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) 4 Page 3 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

6 1 Figure 7. - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index - CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar / Source: Citigroup Figure 8. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on G1 Currencies 2/ Source: Citigroup. -1 Page 4 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

7 Figure 9. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) - US Unemployment Claims Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor Figure 1. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor Page / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

8 - US Unemployment Claims - 1 Figure. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa) Continuing Continuing + Extended* 1/ / * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing Continuing + Extended Jan 1/ * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 6 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

9 22 Figure. TOTAL US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 2-week ma) - US Petroleum Usage / * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Source: US Department of Energy. 3.2 Figure 14. US MOTOR GASOLINE SUPPLIED vs. MILES TRAVELED Nov 2/ Gasoline Supplied (million barrels per day, 2-wa) Vehicle Miles Traveled (trillion miles, -month sum) Source: US Department of Energy. 7. Page 7 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

10 - US Electricity Output Figure 1. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 2-week moving average) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 16. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q Electric Utility Output (2-week moving average) Real GDP * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 8 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

11 - US Electricity Output Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (2-week moving average) Jan Electricity Output (GW hours) Total Manufacturing Production * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (2-week moving average) Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

12 6 Figure 19. TOTAL RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) - US Railcar Loadings * Car loads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard and Poor s. 4 Figure 2. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 3 Car Loads Intermodal Source: Atlantic Systems 1 Page 1 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

13 3 Figure US Railcar Loadings - MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES & RAILCAR LOADINGS Motor Vehicle Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) Assemblies (million units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and Federal Reserve. Jan Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS vs. NEW HOME SALES Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) New Home Sales (thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. Dec Page / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

14 - US Railcar Loadings - 16 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 1 Coal Nonmetallic Minerals Chemicals & Petroleum Products Pulp & Paper Products Metals & Products Waste & Scrap Materials Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. Page / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

15 21 Figure US Railcar Loadings - ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX vs. INTERMODAL CONTAINERS 19 Dec 17 1 Trucking Index (2=, sa) Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, 26-wa) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems. 9 9 Figure 2. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 3 Page / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

16 22 2 Figure US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits - FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) Jan / Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (-month sum) * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source US Treaury/Haver Analytics. 4 Figure 27. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) Deposits (26-day sum) 2/16 Jan Receipts (-month sum) Source US Treaury/Haver Analytics. Page 14 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

17 Figure US Business Credit - SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2/ Figure 29. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2/8 2/ Page 1 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

18 - MBA Mortgage Applications Survey - 6 Figure 3. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS FOR PURCHASE & TOTAL HOME SALES New Purchase Index (4-week moving average, sa) Dec 2 Existing Plus New Home Sales (million units, saar) 2/ Source: National Association of Realtors and Commerce Department. 3 Figure 31. MORTGAGE LOAN APPLICATIONS FOR REFINANCING (weekly, sa) / Source: National Association of Realtors and Commerce Department. Page 16 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

19 - US Commercial Paper - 24 Figure 32. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) Total Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) 2/ / Asset Backed 22 1 Total Financial 9 8 Nonfinancial 2/ /1 3 2/ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 17 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

20 - US Liquid Assets - 9 Figure 33. LIQUID ASSETS* (billion dollars, sa) 2/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) plus total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 14 Figure 34. LIQUID ASSETS* As a percent of Wilshire S&P Market Cap Jan 2/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) plus total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 18 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

21 6 6 Figure 3. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) - US Liquid Assets - 2/ Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** / * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 36. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) Held By: Retail* Institutions** 2/ * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 19 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

22 - US Profits Cycle - Figure 37. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS S&P Forward Earnings* 2/1 US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=) Jan * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters and Conference Board Figure 38. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) / S&P Forward Earnings* US Coincident Economic Indicators * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters and Conference Board. Page 2 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

23 Figure 39. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS S&P Forward Earnings* (weekly) Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) - US Profits Cycle /1 Dec * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through April 1994; weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 4. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) Dec 2/ * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 21 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

24 Figure 41. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) - US Profits Cycle - S&P Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production Jan 2/ * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 42. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) 1 2 2/1-2 S&P Forward Earnings* - Aggregate Hours * 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Financial. Page 22 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

25 - S&P Forward Earnings Figure 43. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 2/9 INDUSTRIALS 2/ CONSUMER STAPLES 2/9 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2/ ENERGY 2/9 MATERIALS 2/ FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES /9 2/ HEALTH CARE 2/9 UTILITIES / Source: Thomson Reuters. Page 23 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

26 17 16 Figure Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P - CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX vs. BOOM BUST BAROMETER US Boom Bust Barometer* 1 14 Consumer Comfort Index (index plus ) * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Commodity Research Bureau and Department of Labor Figure 4. S&P INDEX vs. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator* S&P Index * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 24 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

27 Figure 46. GASOLINE PRICES (dollars per gallon) - Gasoline Prices & Rig Count /8 2/16 National average pump price (weekly) Futures price (daily)* * Nearby contract. Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics Figure 47. BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT (units) Total US Gas Oil 2/ / Source: Baker Hughes Inc. 2 Page 2 / February 17, 2 / US Economic Indicators: High Frequency www.

28 Copyright (c) 2. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. This report and the others posted on www. are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www. may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s or website. Additional information available on request.