High Frequency Economic Indicators

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1 High Frequency Economic Indicators October 23, 211 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 US Unemployment Claims 4-6 US Petroleum Usage 7 US Electricity Output 8-9 US Railcar Loadings 1-13 US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 14 US Business Credit 15 US Bank Loans US Commercial Paper 18 US Liquid Assets 19-2 US Profits Cycle S&P 5 Forward Earnings 25 Global Markets 26 Commodity Heavy Stock Markets 27 Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets 28 Technology Heavy Stock Markets 29 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 3 S&P 5, Copper, & Oil 31 Oil & Gasoline Prices 32 Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & Copper Prices 33 Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & CRB Raw Industrials 34 The Dollar, Crude Oil, & Stock Prices 35 S&P 5 36 Expected Inflation in TIPS 37 S&P 5 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation 38 Gold Price vs TIPS Yields 39 October 23, 211 / www.

3 - Key Global Indicators - 65 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & GLOBAL PRODUCTION CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index (1967=1) 1/ OECD Plus 6 Major Non-Members* Production (25=1) * Includes 3 OECD countries plus Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and OECD Figure 2. WORLD EXPORTS & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES Jul CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index (1967=1) Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) 1/ Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. 5 Page 1 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

4 12 11 Figure 3. GLOBAL BOOM BUST BAROMETER* - Global Boom Bust Barometer / * Average of Baltic Dry Index, Brent crude oil nearby futures, and CRB raw industrials spot price index. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and The Baltic Exchange. 16 Figure 4. GLOBAL BOOM BUST INDICATORS Baltic Dry Index/1 (1/4/1985=1) Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel, nearby contract) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 1/ * Times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau, The Baltic Exchange and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

5 15 Figure 5. INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS - US Leading Indicators ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=1, 4-wa) 1/14 Sep Conference Board LEI (24=1) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Figure 6. INDEX OF LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS / ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=1, 4-wa) 11 1 Sep Conference Board CEI (24=1) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) 5 4 Page 3 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

6 Figure 7. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) - US Unemployment Claims Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/ Figure 8. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/ Page 4 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

7 Figure 9. - US Unemployment Claims - HIGH YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD (basis points) Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average, thousands) / Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Labor Figure 1. HIGH YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=1. 4-wa) Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 1/2 1/ Page 5 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

8 - US Unemployment Claims Figure 11. CONTINUING CLAIMS (millions, sa) Continuing (solid line) Continuing + Extended* (dotted line) 1/ / * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 12. CONTINUING CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing (solid line) Continuing + Extended* (dotted line) Sep 1/1 1/ * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 6 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

9 22 Figure 13. US PETROLEUM USAGE (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) - US Petroleum Usage Total Petroleum Usage / Source: US Department of Energy Figure 14. US MOTOR GASOLINE USAGE (million barrels per day, 52-wa) 1/ (yearly percent change) /14 52-week average 13-week average Source: US Department of Energy Page 7 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

10 - US Electricity Output Figure 15. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 52-week moving average) 1/ * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 16. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q2 2 1/ Electric Utility Output (52-week moving average) Real GDP * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 8 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

11 - US Electricity Output Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (52-week moving average) 1/ Sep Electricity Output (GW hours) Total Manufacturing Production (27=1) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (52-week moving average) 1/ Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

12 4 35 Figure US Railcar Loadings - S&P 5 TRANSPORTATION INDEX vs. RAILCAR LOADINGS /21 1/ Total Railcar Loadings* (thousand units, 26-wa) S&P 5 Transportation Index * Car loads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard and Poor s. 4 Figure 2. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 35 Car Loads / / Intermodal Source: Atlantic Systems 15 Page 1 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

13 - US Railcar Loadings - 3 Figure 21. RAILCAR LOADINGS MOTOR VEHICLES & EQUIPMENT vs. MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) 1/ Production (27=1) Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS vs. NEW HOME SALES Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) New Home Sales (thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 1/15 Aug Page 11 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

14 - US Railcar Loadings - 15 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) / Coal Nonmetallic Minerals 1/ / Chemicals & Petroleum Products Pulp & Paper Products 1/ / / Metals & Products Waste & Scrap Materials Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. Page 12 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

15 25 Figure US Railcar Loadings - RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL CONTAINERS (thousand units, 26-wa) / Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 5 9 Figure 25. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) / Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 3 Page 13 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

16 22 21 Figure US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits - FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) Sep / Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (12-month sum) * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source US Treaury/Haver Analytics. 45 Figure 27. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) Deposits (26-day sum) 1/ Receipts (12-month sum) Sep Source US Treaury/Haver Analytics. 1 Page 14 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

17 Figure US Business Credit - SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1/ Figure 29. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1/12 1/ Page 15 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

18 Figure 3. TOTAL LOANS & LEASES (billion dollars, sa) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - US Bank Loans - Large Banks Small Banks 1/ Figure 31. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, sa) Large Banks 1/ Small Banks Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 Page 16 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

19 8 6 Figure 32. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT vs. BANK LOANS (yearly percent change) - US Bank Loans - Payroll Employment Commercial Bank Loans (in 4-week ma) Sep 1/ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 33. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT vs. TOTAL BANK CREDIT (yearly percent change) Payroll Employment Sep Commercial Bank Credit (in 4-week ma) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1/ Page 17 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

20 - US Commercial Paper - 24 Figure 34. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) Total Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) 1/ / Asset Backed Total Financial Nonfinancial 1/ / Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 18 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

21 - US Liquid Assets - 9 Figure 35. LIQUID ASSETS* (billion dollars, sa) 1/ * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) plus total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 36. LIQUID ASSETS* As a percent of Wilshire 5 S&P 5 Market Cap Sep * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) plus total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 19 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

22 61 57 Figure 37. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) - US Liquid Assets - 1/ Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** 1/ * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 38. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) Held By: Retail* Institutions** 1/ * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

23 - US Profits Cycle - 12 Figure 39. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS S&P 5 Forward Earnings* 1/ US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=1) Sep * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial and Conference Board Figure 4. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* US Coincident Economic Indicators / * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial and Conference Board. Page 21 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

24 Figure 41. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS S&P 5 Forward Earnings* (weekly) Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) - US Profits Cycle /14 Aug * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through April 1994; weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Financial and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Figure 42. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) / * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 22 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

25 Figure 43. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) - US Profits Cycle - S&P 5 Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production / * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 44. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) 1 2 1/14 5 Sep -2 S&P 5 Forward Earnings* -5 Aggregate Hours * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Financial. Page 23 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

26 Figure US Profits Cycle - S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average, thousands, sa) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* (yearly percent change, inverted scale) / * S&P 5 forward earnings monthly thru 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: US Department of Labor and Thomson Financial Figure 46. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index / * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Financial and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 24 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

27 Figure 47. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 1 1/ S&P 5 Forward Earnings - INDUSTRIALS / CONSUMER STAPLES / INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1/ ENERGY /13 MATERIALS / FINANCIALS /13 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES / HEALTH CARE / UTILITIES / Source: Thomson Reuters. Page 25 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

28 Figure 48. WORLD SHARE PRICE INDEX - Global Markets / CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX (1967=1) / BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) / * Nearby contract. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 3 Page 26 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

29 Figure 49. AUSTRALIA (All Ordinaries) - Commodity Heavy Stock Markets - 2-day moving average / CANADA (Toronto 3) INDONESIA (Jakarta) /21 1/ SOUTH AFRICA (FTSE/JSE All Share) 1/ Source: Haver Analytics. Page 27 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

30 - Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets Figure 5. S&P 5 INDUSTRIALS 2-day moving average 1/ GERMANY (DAX) SOUTH KOREA (Kospi) SWEDEN (AffarsvardnGen) Source: Haver Analytics. 1/21 1/21 1/ Page 28 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

31 Figure 51. NASDAQ - Technology Heavy Stock Markets - 2-day moving average TAIWAN (TWSE) 1/ / SINGAPORE (Straits Times) ISRAEL (Tel Aviv 1) Source: Haver Analytics. 1/21 1/ Page 29 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

32 17 16 Figure Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 - CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX vs. BOOM BUST BAROMETER US Boom Bust Barometer* Consumer Comfort Index (index plus 1) 1/ * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Commodity Research Bureau and Department of Labor Figure 53. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR FSMI = Average of BBB* and Consumer Comfort Index S&P 5 Index / * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 3 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

33 14 Figure 54. S&P 5 INDEX vs. COPPER FUTURES PRICE - S&P 5, Copper, & Oil / S&P 5 Index Copper Futures Price* (dollars per pound) * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. 14 Figure 55. S&P 5 INDEX vs. BRENT OIL FUTURES PRICE / S&P 5 Index Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 31 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

34 - Oil & Gasoline Prices - 15 Figure 56. CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per barrel) West Texas Intermediate Brent 1/ / * Nearby contract. Source: Wall Street Journal Figure 57. GASOLINE PUMP PRICE vs. FUTURES PRICE (dollars per gallon) Gasoline Pump Price (weekly) NY Harbor Reform RBOB Gasoline Future Price* 1/ / * Nearby contract. Source: Department of Energy and Oil & Gas Journal. Page 32 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

35 Figure Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & Copper Prices - COPPER vs. CRUDE OIL PRICES Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) /21 Copper Futures Price* (dollars per pound) * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 59. CHINA STOCK MARKET vs. COPPER FUTURES PRICE China: Shanghai-Shenzhen 3 (12/31/24=1) Copper Futures Price* (dollars per pound) 1/ * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 33 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

36 Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & CRB Raw Industrials - Figure 6. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) 7 11 CRB Raw Industrials Index (1967=1) 1/ * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 61. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES vs. S&P 5 INDEX / S&P 5 Index CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index Source: Thomson Financial and Commodity Research Bureau. 3 Page 34 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

37 Figure The Dollar, Crude Oil, & Stock Prices - DOLLAR INDEX vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (inverted scale) 1/ * Nearby contact. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics Figure 63. DOLLAR INDEX vs. S&P 5 INDEX / S&P 5 Index Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (inverted scale) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics Page 35 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

38 - S&P 5-16 Figure 64. S&P 5 vs. S&P RETAILING / S&P 5 Index 6 S&P 5 Retailing 1/ Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 16 Figure 65. S&P 5 INDEX vs. S&P 5 BANKS / S&P 5 Index S&P 5 Banks / Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 2 Page 36 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

39 4 Figure 66. EXPECTED INFLATION - Expected Inflation in TIPS / Expected Inflation in 5-year TIPS* Expected Inflation in 1-year TIPS* * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 3. Figure 67. EXPECTED INFLATION Expected Inflation in 1-year TIPS* minus Expected Inflation in 5-year TIPS* / * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 37 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

40 16 Figure S&P 5 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation - S&P 5 FORWARD P/E AND EXPECTED INFLATION / Expected Inflation in 5-year TIPS* 1/ S&P 5 Forward P/E * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 3 Figure 69. S&P 5 FORWARD P/E AND EXPECTED INFLATION / /14 1 S&P 5 Forward P/E Expected Inflation in 1-year TIPS* * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 38 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

41 Figure 7. GOLD PRICE AND 1-YEAR TIPS YIELD - Gold Price vs TIPS Yields year TIPS Yield (inverted scale) Gold Price (dollars per ounce) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1/ Figure 71. GOLD PRICE AND 5-YEAR TIPS YIELD Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 5-year TIPS Yield (inverted scale) Gold Price (dollar per ounce) 1/21 1/ Page 39 / October 23, 211 / High Frequency Economic Indicators www.

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