Country Briefing: China

Transcription

1 Country Briefing: China December 11, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Real GDP 1 Industrial Production Electricity 3- Manufacturing PMI -9 Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs 1 Retail Sales 11 Autos 1 Trade Balance 13 Exports & Imports 1-1 Export Shares 17 Exports to 1-19 Trade Balance by Regions Exports to China 1 Railways Traffic Producer Price Index 3- Consumer Price Index - China vs. US Inflation 9-3 Stock Market 31-3 Money Growth & Inflation 33 Social Finance 3-3 Bank Loans 3 Monetary Policy 37 PBOC Balance Sheet 3 Exchange Rate 39 International Reserves -1 China vs. US Monetary Indicators -3 Industrial Production & Retail Sales Railway Freight Traffic Bank Loans December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

3 Real GDP Figure 1. CHINA: REAL GDP yearly percent change (.) quarterly percent change, saar (.3) Q Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

4 Industrial Production Figure. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION* (=1, sa, ratio scale) Dec * Value added basis. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics. Figure 3. CHINA REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Real GDP (.) Industrial Production* (.) * Value added basis. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

5 Electricity Figure. CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT (1 million KWH, ratio scale) Actual 3-Month Average Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics. 3 3 Figure. CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT (yearly percent change) in 1-Month Moving Average (7.) in 3-Month Moving Average (.) Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

6 7 Figure. CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index Electricity 3 3 1/ China Electricity Output (yearly percent change in 3-month moving average) Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 7. CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index 1/ China Electricity Output (yearly percent change in 1-month moving average) Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics. - Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

7 Electricity 1 Figure. CHINA: REAL GDP & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT (yearly percent change) Real GDP (.) Power Generated Output (1-ma) (7.) Q Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 7. CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT (yearly percent change in 3-ma) Industrial Production (.3) Electricity Output (.) Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics. -1 Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

8 Figure. Manufacturing PMI CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (sa) M-PMI Composite (1.) 9 3 Leading Index (99.7) Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics Figure 9. CHINA: OFFICIAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX & MAJOR COMPONENTS* (sa) Composite (1.) New Orders (3.) Employment (.) Output (.3) * An index above indicates an increase in activity. An index below indicates a decrease in activity. Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

9 Figure 1. Manufacturing PMI CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (sa) 3 7 PMI Composite (1.) Output (.3) New Orders (3.) New Orders (3.) Export Orders (.) New Orders minus Export Orders (.) Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing, OECD, and Haver Analytics. - Page 7 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

10 7 Figure 11. Manufacturing PMI CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (sa) 7 Imports (1.) Employment (.) Stocks of Orders/ Purchases (.) Quantity of Purchases (3.) Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics. 3 Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

11 Figure 1. Manufacturing PMI CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (sa) Suppliers Delivery Times (9.) Stock of Finished Goods (.1) Stock of Raw Materials (.) Purchase Price (9.) Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics Page 9 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

12 Figure 13. Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES Final (.) Source: Markit and Haver Analytics. Figure 1. CHINA: NON-MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (sa) Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

13 Retail Sales 3 Figure 1. CHINA: RETAIL SALES (billion yuan, nsa) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Figure 1. CHINA: RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change) 3 Total (1.) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. -1 Page 11 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

14 Autos Figure 17. CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION (million units, nsa) Sales (3.) Production (3.1) Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Figure 1. CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION (1-month sum, million units) Sales (.9) Production (9.1) Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

15 Trade Balance 1 Figure 19. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion dollars, saar) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. - 7 Figure. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (billion dollars, 1-month sum) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

16 1 Figure 1. CHINA MERCHANDISE TRADE* (yearly percent change) Exports & Imports 1 Exports (1.) Imports (17.) * Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

17 Exports & Imports Figure. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE* (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Total Imports Exports Telecommunication & Sound Recording Equipment Machinery & Transport Equipment Professional & Scientific Instruments & Apparatus Iron & Steel Electrical Machinery, Apparatus, & Appliances * Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

18 Exports & Imports Figure 7. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) With US Exports Imports With Japan Exports Imports With EU Exports Imports With Rest of World Exports Imports Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

19 Export Shares Figure. CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (as percent of total exports) To United States (19.) To Japan (.) To European Union (1.) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. 1 Figure 9. CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (as percent of total exports) To Rest of World* (7.9) * Excludes the US, Japan, and European Union exports. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 17 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

20 Figure 3. Exports to CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO US & US M-PMI Chinese Exports to US (yearly percent change in 3-ma) US M-PMI (+=expansion, sa) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics Figure 31. CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO EU & EU M-PMI Chinese Exports to EU (yearly percent change in 3-ma) EU M-PMI (+=expansion, sa) Source: China Customs RBS and Markit Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

21 Figure 3. CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO JAPAN (yearly percent change) Exports to Source: China Customs. -3 Figure 33. CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO REST OF WORLD* (yearly percent change in 3-ma) * Exports excluding US, EU, and Japan. Source: China Customs. Page 19 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

22 Trade Balance by Regions 3 Figure 3. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS (billion dollars, 1-month sum) 3 US (7.) EU (17.) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Figure 3. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS (billion dollars, 1-month sum) With Rest of World (3.) Japan (-9.) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. - Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

23 Figure 3. EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA (billion dollars, 1-month sum) US (17.7) Eurozone + UK (1.) Japan (17.) South Korea (1.) Australia (7.) Exports to China Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs. Figure 37. EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA (yearly percent change) Sep Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs. - Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

24 . Figure 3. CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC (1 million tons) Railways Traffic Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 39. CHINA: RAILWAYS PASSENGER TRAFFIC (1 million persons) Month Moving Average Actual Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

25 1 1 Figure. CHINA: CPI & PPI (yearly percent change) Producer Price Index Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. CPI (1.7) PPI: Total Industrial Products (.) Figure 1. CHINA: RAW MATERIALS & MANUFACTURING PPI (yearly percent change) Raw Materials (9.7) Manufacturing (.3) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

26 Producer Price Index 1 1 Figure. CHINA: LIGHT & HEAVY INDUSTRY PPI (yearly percent change) Heavy Industry (-.7) Light Industry (-.9) Mar Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 3. CHINA: RAW MATERIALS PPI (yearly percent change) Chemical (.) Coal (.) Ferrous Metals (7.) Nonferrous Metals (13.) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. - Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

27 Figure. CHINA PPI: CONSUMER GOODS (yearly percent change) Producer Price Index Durable Goods (.) Daily-Use Articles (1.7) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. -1 Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

28 1 Figure. CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Total (1.7) Consumer Price Index Excluding Food (.) Consumer Goods (.9) Services (3.1) Source: Haver Analytics Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

29 Consumer Price Index 3 Figure. CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Medicine, Medical Care & Personal Articles (7.) Fuel & Power (.) Clothing (1.) Transportation & Communication (1.3) Housing (.) Recreation, Education & Cultural Services (.) Household Facilities, Articles & Repair Services (1.) Tobacco & Liquor Products (3.9) Dec Source: Haver Analytics. Page 7 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

30 Consumer Price Index Figure 7. CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Fresh Vegetables (-9.) 3 Food (-1.1) Meat, Poultry & Related Products (-.) Fresh Fruits (3.7) Eggs (.) Grain (1.) Source: Haver Analytics. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

31 1 Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) China vs. US Inflation 1 - China (1.7) US (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 9. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD (yearly percent change) China: Food (-1.1) US: Food at Home (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics Page 9 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

32 Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD (yearly percent change) China vs. US Inflation - China (.) US (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 1. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) China: Total Industrial Products (.) US: Finished Goods (3.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

33 Figure. CHINA: SHANGHAI-SHENZHEN 3 (1/31/=1) Stock Market day moving average. Source: Haver Analytics. 1/ Figure 3. CHINA: MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEX (yuan, December 31, 199=1) / day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 31 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

34 1 Figure. CHINA: STOCK MARKET & CRB METALS Stock Market 1 9 1/ 1 7 1/ 3 MSCI Share Price Index (Yuan, December 31, 199=1) CRB Metals (197=1) Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Commodity Research Bureau, and Haver Analytics. 1 Figure. CHINA: STOCK MARKET & COPPER PRICE 9 1/ 7 1/ 3 MSCI Share Price Index (yuan, December 31, 199=1) 3 Copper Price* (cents per pound) * Nearby futures contract. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

35 3 Figure. CHINA: M1 & CPI (yearly percent change) Money Growth & Inflation 3 3 Consumer Price Index (1.7) M1* (pushed ahead 1 months) (1.7) * In yuan. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. 3 3 Figure 7. CHINA: M & CPI (yearly percent change) Consumer Price Index (1.7) M* (pushed ahead 1 months) (9.1) * In yuan. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page 33 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

36 . 3. Figure. CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING (trillion yuan) Social Finance Source: Peoples Bank of China.. -. Figure 9. CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING (billion US dollars) Source: Peoples Bank of China. -1 Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

37 Figure. CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING (trillion yuan, 1-month sum) Social Finance 1 Total in Yuan (19.9) (trillion US dollars, 1-month sum) 3 3 Total In US Dollars (.9) Source: Peoples Bank of China/Haver Analytics. 1 Figure 1. CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING: BANK LOANS (trillion yuan, 1-month sum) 1 1 Bank Loans in Yuan (1.3) (trillion US dollars, 1-month sum) Bank Loans in US Dollars (.1) Source: People s Bank of China Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

38 3 Figure. CHINA: COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS (monthly change in billions) Bank Loans 3 1 in yuan (11.1) in dollars (17.) Source: People s Bank of China Figure 3. CHINA (monthly change in 3-month average, billion yuan) Bank Loans Source: Haver Analytics. - Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

39 Figure. CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO (percent) Source: People s Bank of China. Monetary Policy Required Reserve Ratio Large Depository Institutions (17.) Small/Medium Depository Institutions (1.) 1/ Figure. CHINA: PRIME LENDING RATE (percent) Source: Haver Analytics. Page 37 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

40 PBOC Balance Sheet Figure. PBOC ASSETS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Total Assets (.) Foreign Exchange Assets (3.3) Nongold International Reserves Held by China (IMF data) (3.1) Source: People s Bank of China and IMF.. 7 Figure 7. PBOC ASSETS (percent) Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets Source: People s Bank of China and IMF. 3 Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

41 .... Figure. CHINA: FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE (yuan/$) Exchange Rate / Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International Figure 9. MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES (billion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Sep China + Hong Kong China Hong Kong Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs. 1 Page 39 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

42 Figure 7. CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, nsa) International Reserves Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* Sep * Includes private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. 7 3 Figure 71. CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars, yearly change) Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF) Holdings of US Treasury Securities* * Includes private and official accounts. Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

43 Figure 7. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit (1-month sum) Non-Gold International Reserves (1-month change) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. International Reserves Figure 73. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) * 1-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 1-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

44 China vs. US Monetary Indicators Figure 7. BANK LOANS (trillion US dollars) 1 China US CENTRAL BANK ACCOUNTS (trillion US dollars) China s Total Assets US Fed s Total Assets Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People s Bank of China. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

45 China vs. US Monetary Indicators Figure 7. CHINA: BANK LOANS (as a percent of US Bank Loans) TOTAL ASSETS OF PEOPLE S BANK OF CHINA (as a percent of US Fed s Total Assets) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People s Bank of China. Page 3 / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

46 Figure 7. Industrial Production & Retail Sales CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Industrial Production* (.) PPI: Total Industrial Products (.) * Value added basis. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics. Figure 77. CHINA: RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change) 3 Total (1.) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. -1 Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

47 Figure 7. Railway Freight Traffic CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics. Railways Freight Traffic (1 million tons) Imports Plus Exports (billion dollars, saar) Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

48 Bank Loans Figure 79. BANK LOANS: CHINA & US (trillion US dollars) 1 China (nsa) (1.1) US (sa) (9.) Source: People s Bank of China. Figure. CHINA: BANK LOANS (as a percent of US Bank Loans) Source: People s Bank of China. Page / December 11, 17 / Country Briefing: China www.

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