Country Briefing: United Kingdom

Transcription

1 Country Briefing: United Kingdom October 1, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson --1 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Real GDP 1- Industrial Production - Purchasing Managers Indexes Production Expectations & M-PMI Merchandise Trade 7-9 Retail Sales 1 Unemployment Measures 11 Consumer & Business Confidence 1 Consumer Prices 1-1 Financial 1 October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

3 Real GDP 1 Figure 1. REAL GDP: UK (quarterly percent change, saar) Total (1.) Household Consumption (1.) Source: Office for National Statistics and Haver Analytics. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-1.9) Q Q Q Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

4 Real GDP 7 Figure. REAL GDP: UK (quarterly percent change, saar) Exports of Goods & Services (-.) Q Imports of Goods & Services (-.) Q Government Consumption (-1.) Q Source: Office for National Statistics/Haver Analytics Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

5 11 Figure. UK: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (=1) Industrial Production Total Manufacturing Source: Office for National Statistics. 9 9 Figure. UK: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Total (1.) Manufacturing (1.) Source: Office for National Statistics. -1 Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

6 Industrial Production 1 11 Figure. UK: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (=1, sa) Capital Goods Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable Goods Intermediate Goods Energy Source: Office for National Statistics. 7 Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

7 Figure. Purchasing Managers Indexes UK: MANUFACTURING & NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* M-PMI NM-PMI Sep * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 7. UK: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* Average (.) Sep * An index above indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

8 Figure. Production Expectations & M-PMI INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE & M-PMI Sep United Kingdom Production Expectations (1.) M-PMI (.) Source: European Commission and Markit. Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

9 Merchandise Trade Figure 9. UK: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion pounds, sa) Balance Exports Imports (yearly percent change) 1 1 Exports Imports Source: Office for National Statistics. - Page 7 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

10 Merchandise Trade 17 1 Figure 1. UK: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO (billion pounds, sa) European Union Euro Area Western Europe Excluding EU Countries* Apr North America United States Apr * Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey. Source: Office for National Statistics.. 1. Page / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

11 Merchandise Trade Figure 11. UK: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO (billion pounds, sa) Apr Other OECD Countries* Oil Exporting Countries* Apr Apr Rest Of World * Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea. ** UAE, Indonesia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Source: Office for National Statistics. 1 Page 9 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

12 Figure 1. UK: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES (=1, sa) Retail Sales Total Excluding Automotive Fuel Source: Office for National Statistics Figure 1. UK: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change) 1 Total (.) Source: Office for National Statistics. - Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

13 9 Figure 1. UK: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa) Unemployment Measures Headline Jun Claimant Count Rate Source: Central Statistical Office Figure 1. UK: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) (monthly change, thousands, sa) Source: Office for National Statistics Page 11 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

14 1 1 Figure 1. Consumer & Business Confidence UK ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* (long-term average=1, sa) Sep * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight %), service (%), consumer (%), construction (%) and retail trade (%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission. Figure 17. UK: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS* (%,sa) Sep - - Industrial Services Construction Consumer Retail Trade * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight %), service (%), consumer (%), construction (%) and retail trade (%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission. Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

15 1 Figure 1. UK: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Headline Excluding Energy, Food Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Consumer Prices Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Seasonal Food Nonseasonal Food Source: Office of National Statistics. - Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

16 1 1 Figure 19. UK: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) Energy, Food, Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Consumer Prices Energy & Unprocessed Food Energy & Seasonal Food Education, Health & Social Protection Source: Office of National Statistics. Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

17 Figure. UK: BASE RATE (percent) Financial Sep Source: Bank of England Figure 1. UNITED KINGDOM: FTSE 1 (1//=1) 1/ day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc. Page 1 / October 1, 1 / United Kingdom www.

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