Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing April 1, 19 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield (.1) TIPS Yield (.3) 3/9 3/ Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (1.) / * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

3 3 3 Figure 3. YIELD CURVE (basis points) 1-Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target Rate () -Year Treasury (1) / Source: Federal Reserve Board. -1 Figure. YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR US TREASURY BONDS (basis points, daily) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board. 3/9 Page / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

4 3 3 1 Figure. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE (percent change since December, 1) S&P Sectors S&P Index (.) Consumer Discretionary (.) Consumer Staples (1.9) Energy (.9) Financials (1.3) Health Care (13.7) Industrials (.) Information Technology (.) Materials (17.1) Real Estate (1.) Communication Services (.) Utilities (1.) Latest data thru: 3/9/19 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 19 Source: Standard & Poor s. - 1 Figure. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE (percent change since September, 1) Latest data thru: 3/9/19 S&P Sectors S&P Index (-3.3) Consumer Discretionary (-3.) Consumer Staples (.) Energy (-11.) Financials (-1.9) Health Care (-.) Industrials (-.) Information Technology (-1.3) Materials (-.9) Real Estate (9.1) Communication Services (.) Utilities (1.1) Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1 19 Source: Standard & Poor s Page / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

5 Figure 7. REAL GDP & Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS (quarterly percent change, saar) Q Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. Source: Citigroup. Based on US Dollar (-3.9) 3/ Page / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

6 7 Figure 9. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (197=1, daily) 7 3/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. 1 Figure 1. CHINA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE 1 Copper Futures Price* (cents per pound) 3/9 3/9 3 China MSCI Stock Price Index (in yuan) * Nearby futures contract. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 7 / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

7 Figure 11. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 17 1 Consensus Forecasts Annual Forward* / Frwd Mar Mar * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv... Figure 1. 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent) Germany (-.7) Japan (-.9) US (.1) /9 3/ Source: Haver Analytics Page / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

8 9 Figure 13. DALLAS FED SURVEY* Prices Paid: Raw Materials (.) 9 3 Mar Prices Received: Finished Goods (.9) KANSAS CITY FED Prices Paid (1.) Prices Received (7.) NEW YORK FED Prices Paid (3.1) Prices Received (1.1) Mar Mar PHILADELPHIA FED Prices Paid (19.7) Prices Received (.7) Mar RICHMOND FED Prices Paid (.) Prices Received (.1) Mar * Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond. - - Page 9 / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

9 1 1 Figure 1. US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (trillion dollars, nsa) Feb Feb Publicly Held Treasury Securities Outstanding Marketable* * Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States. Figure 1. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS (trillion dollars) 3 Total (using 1-month sum at end of quarter) Federal Government Spending in GDP (-quarter sum) Federal Government Income Redistribution* Q 3 Q * Total federal government spending (using 1-month sum at end of quarter) minus federal government spending in GDP (using quarter sum). Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 1 / April 1, 19 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

10 Copyright (c) 19. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on, blog., and YRI s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of, blog., and YRI s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@