Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview
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1 Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview September 25, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 5 Index & Sectors 1 P/Es & VIX 2 Bonds 3 Yield Curve 4-5 High Yield Bonds 6 Dollar & Commodities 7 CESI 8 S&P 5 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted 9 September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
3 S&P 5 Index & Sectors 3 29 Figure 1. S&P 5 INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 2. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: SEPTEMBER 218 MONTH-TO-DATE (percent change from last trading day of August) September 218 S&P 5 Index (.6) Consumer Discretionary (-.2) Consumer Staples (1.3) Energy (3.1) Financials (.7) Health Care (2.1) Industrials (2.5) Information Technology (-.9) Materials (.9) Real Estate (-3.3) Telecom Services (3.4) Utilities (-1.1) Source: Standard & Poor s. September 218 M-T-D Page 1 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
4 28 26 Figure 3. P/Es & VIX FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P 5 LargeCap (16.7) S&P 4 MidCap (16.5) S&P 6 SmallCap (17.6) * Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 9 8 Figure 4. VIX: S&P Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. 1 Page 2 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
5 Bonds Figure 5. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield (3.1) TIPS Yield (.94) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 6. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (2.16) * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
6 Figure 7. US TREASURY 1-YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Interest Rates 1-Year Bond Yield (3.1) 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.83) Fed Funds Rate Target (1.88) Source: Federal Reserve Board. Yield Curve Figure 8. YIELD CURVE (basis points) 1-Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target Rate (123) 2-Year Treasury (27) Source: Federal Reserve Board. -1 Page 4 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
7 Yield Curve Figure 9. 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES (percent) Interest Rates 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.83) Fed Funds Rate 12-month Forward Futures (2.72) Federal Funds Target Rate (1.88) Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile Exchange Figure 1. GOVERNMENT 1-YEAR BOND YIELDS (percent) Germany (.54) Japan (.14) US (3.1) Source: Haver Analytics Page 5 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
8 11 Figure 11. US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE YIELD (percent) High Yield Bonds Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board Figure 12. YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 1-YEAR US TREASURY BONDS (basis points, daily) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board. 4 2 Page 6 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
9 Figure 13. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX (2=1, daily) Dollar & Commodities Trade-Weighted Dollar (12.59) Source: JP Morgan Figure 14. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
10 CESI 12 1 Figure 15. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar (-1.9) Source: Citigroup Figure 16. S&P 5 GROWTH vs VALUE RELATIVE TO S&P Relative to S&P 5* Growth Value * Rising (falling) line indicates that the index is outperforming (underperforming) the S&P 5. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
11 Figure 17. S&P 5 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted S&P 5 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Figure 18. S&P 5 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale) Equal-weighted S&P 5 Market-cap-weighted S&P Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. 25 Page 9 / September 25, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
12 Copyright (c) 218. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@
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