Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview
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1 Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview ruary, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Index & Sectors 1 P/Es & VIX 2 Bonds 3 Yield Curve 4 High Yield Bonds Dollar & Commodities 6 CESI 7 S&P Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted 8 S&P Sectors 9 S&P 4 Sectors S&P 6 Sectors 11 S&P 1 Sectors 12 S&P 1//4/6 YTD Performance 13 S&P Sector Price Indexes ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
3 S&P Index & Sectors 3 29 Figure 1. S&P INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices Figure 2. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: FEBRUARY 218 MONTH-TO-DATE (percent change from last trading day of uary) ruary 218 S&P Index (-6.2) Consumer Discretionary (-.3) Consumer Staples (-.9) Energy (-7.3) Financials (-6.2) Health Care (-.8) Industrials (-6.6) Information Technology (-6.9) Materials (-7.2) Real Estate (-.) Telecom Services (-4.4) Utilities (-3.9) ruary 218 M-T-D Page 1 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
4 28 26 Figure 3. P/Es & VIX FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P LargeCap (16.9) S&P 4 MidCap (16.8) S&P 6 SmallCap (18.1) * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 9 8 Figure 4. VIX: S&P Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. Page 2 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
5 Figure. US TREASURY -YEAR BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) Bonds -Year Treasury Bond Yield (2.77) TIPS Yield (.67) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 6. EXPECTED INFLATION IN -YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (2.) * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
6 Figure 7. US TREASURY -YEAR BOND YIELD & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Source: Federal Reserve Board. -Year Bond Yield (2.77) Fed Funds Rate (1.38) Yield Curve Figure 8. YIELD CURVE* (basis points) / * US Treasury -year bond yield less federal funds rate. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
7 11 Figure 9. US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE YIELD (percent) High Yield Bonds Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board Figure. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS US TREASURY -YEAR BOND (basis points, daily) Spread (32) * US high-yield corporate less -Year Treasury. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board. Page / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
8 Dollar & Commodities Figure 11. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=, daily) Trade-Weighted Dollar (113.42) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. 7 Figure 12. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX /2 4 8 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 2/2 6 3 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
9 CESI 12 Figure 13. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar (.) Source: Citigroup Figure 14. RELATIVE PRICE INDEX: S&P GROWTH & VALUE (relative to S&P ) Rising line indicates that the index is outperforming the S&P Growth relative to S&P Value relative to S&P Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics..3 Page 7 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
10 Figure 1. S&P Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted S&P RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Figure 16. S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale) Equal-weighted S&P Market-cap-weighted S&P Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. 2 Page 8 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
11 S&P Sectors Figure 17. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P sector price indexes INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
12 S&P 4 Sectors Figure 18. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 4 sector price indexes INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. Page / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
13 S&P 6 Sectors 6 Figure 19. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALS S&P 6 sector price indexes CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. Page 11 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
14 S&P 1 Sectors Figure 2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 1 sector price indexes INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. Page 12 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
15 Figure 21. S&P 1 All Sectors S&P LargeCap S&P 4 MidCap S&P 6 SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities S&P 1//4/6 YTD Performance Page 13 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
16 9 8 Figure 22. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P Sector Price Indexes S&P S&P S&P Figure CONSUMER STAPLES S&P S&P S&P Page 14 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
17 13 12 Figure 24. ENERGY S&P Sector Price Indexes S&P S&P S&P Figure 2. FINANCIALS S&P S&P S&P Page 1 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
18 S&P Sector Price Indexes Figure 26. HEALTH CARE S&P 6 S&P 4 S&P Figure 27. INDUSTRIALS 12 1 S&P S&P S&P Page 16 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
19 S&P Sector Price Indexes Figure 28. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY S&P 4 S&P S&P Figure 29. MATERIALS 6 6 S&P S&P S&P Page 17 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
20 4 3 Figure 3. TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES S&P Sector Price Indexes S&P S&P S&P Figure 31. UTILITIES 12 S&P S&P S&P Page 18 / ruary, 218 / Daily Markets Overview www.
21 Copyright (c) 218. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@
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