Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 12, 219 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 25 Figure 1. 2-YEAR US TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, weekly) Year Treasury Yield (2.5) Federal Funds Rate (2.4) / Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 2. 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES (percent) Interest Rates 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.48) Fed Funds Rate 12-month Forward Futures (2.36) Federal Funds Target Rate (2.38) Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile Exchange Page 3 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

3 Figure 3. YIELD CURVE (basis points) -Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target Rate (27.5) 2-Year Treasury (17.) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 4. S&P 5 VIX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND SPREAD 25 7 S&P 5 VIX (16.) High-Yield Corporate Spread* (415.9) * US high-yield corporate bond yield less -year Treasury bond yield (basis points). Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank of America Merill Lynch, and Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

4 Figure 5. S&P 5 VIX & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS 8 6 S&P 5 VIX (16.) Investors Intelligence Bears (percent) (2.6) / Source: Investors Intelligence and Chicago Board Options Exchange Figure 6. S&P 5 INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s Page 5 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

5 Figure 7. JP MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (2=, daily) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan. Figure 8. -YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent) Germany (.12) Japan (-.1) US (2.65) / Source: Haver Analytics Page 6 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

6 1.7 Figure 9. EURO EXCHANGE RATE ($/Euro) day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International Figure. JAPAN: YEN/US DOLLAR (inverted scale) day moving average. Source: Bank of Japan. 14 Page 7 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

7 Figure 11. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) / * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. 14 Figure 12. US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION (million barrels per day, weekly, sa) /1 12 Total (11) Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 4 Page 8 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

8 Figure 13. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International Figure 14. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 9 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

9 Figure 15. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) Expected Inflation in -Year TIPS* * Yield spread between -year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Figure 16. GOLD PRICE & -YEAR TIPS YIELD (daily) Gold Price* (dollars per ounce) (136.4) -Year TIPS Yield (percent, inverted scale) (3) * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics. Page / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

10 Figure 17. FANG STOCKS, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION FANG Stocks* 2/8/19 Blue Angels Implied Market Cap Index (billion $)** x7 x6 x x Latest Forward P/E (46.5) * FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. ** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. 12 Figure 18. FANG STOCKS % SHARE OF S&P 5 MARKET CAP AND FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES (percent) 12 8 Share of S&P 5 Capitalization (9.6) Earnings (3.3) Revenues (.4) 2/ * FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 11 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

11 Figure 19. FORWARD P/E RATIO: S&P 5 and S&P 5 EX-FANG* / S&P 5 (15) S&P 5 ex-fang (14) P/E Difference Attributable To FANG (1.1) 1/ * Price divided by consensus forward earnings forecast. FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 12 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

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