Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 14, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 16 Figure 1. COMMODITY PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OIL CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 6 4 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics Figure 2. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* * Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 55 5 Figure 3. BALTIC DRY INDEX (1/4/85=, daily) Source: The Baltic Exchange Figure 4. BALTIC DRY INDEX (1/4/85=, daily) Source: The Baltic Exchange Page 4 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 7 Figure 5. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics Figure 6. COMMODITY PRICES*: COPPER vs CRUDE OIL Brent Crude Futures Price (dollars per barrel) Copper Futures Price (cents per pound) * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 1 Figure 7. US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION (million barrels per day, weekly, nsa) 11/ Total (9.6) Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics Figure 8. US STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS* (million barrels) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week 11/3/ (1257.) 216 (134.7) 215 (127.5) 214 (111.) 213 (187.4) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 * Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 .22 Figure 9. S&P 5 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX S&P 5 Materials Index (as a ratio of S&P 5 Index) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Standard & Poor s and Commodity Research Bureau..6 Figure 1. S&P 5 ENERGY & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE S&P 5 Energy Index (as a ratio of S&P 5 Index) 75.2 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) * Nearby futures price. Source: Standard & Poor s and Financial Times. Page 7 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 13 12 Figure 11. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (25=, swda, ratio scale) Aug * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 15 Figure 12. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) 15 1 World (3.8) 1 5 Aug Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -15 Page 8 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 Figure 13. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (25=, swda,* ratio scale) Aug Advanced Economies 6 5 Emerging Economies * Seasonally and working day adjusted. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 2 Figure 14. WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) (yearly percent change) Aug -1-2 World Production Advanced Economies (3.2) Emerging Economies (4.3) Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Page 9 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 7 Figure 15. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 7 6 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (local currencies) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau Figure 16. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 11/ * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / November 14, 217 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

10 Copyright (c) 217. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@