Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview

Transcription

1 Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview September 25, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 5 Index & Sectors 1 P/Es & VIX 2 Bonds 3 Yield Curve 4 High Yield Bonds 5 Dollar & Commodities 6 CESI 7 S&P 5 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted 8 S&P 5 Sectors 9 S&P 4 Sectors S&P 6 Sectors 11 S&P 15 Sectors 12 S&P 15/5/4/6 YTD Performance 13 S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

3 Figure 1. S&P 5 INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. S&P 5 Index & Sectors Figure 2. S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: SEPTEMBER 217 MONTH-TO-DATE (percent change from last trading day of August) September 217 S&P 5 Index (1.) Consumer Discretionary (-.1) Consumer Staples (-.4) Energy (9.3) Financials (3.3) Health Care (.4) Industrials (3.6) Information Technology (-1.8) Materials (3.) Real Estate (-1.8) Telecom Services (3.9) Utilities (-1.7) September 217 M-T-D Page 1 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

4 P/Es & VIX Figure 3. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P 5 LargeCap (17.6) S&P 4 MidCap (17.8) S&P 6 SmallCap (19.5) * Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 9 8 Figure 4. VIX: S&P Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. Page 2 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

5 Figure 5. US TREASURY -YEAR BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) Bonds -Year Treasury Bond Yield (2.22) TIPS Yield (.38) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 6. EXPECTED INFLATION IN -YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (1.84) * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 3 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

6 Figure 7. US TREASURY -YEAR BOND YIELD & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Source: Federal Reserve Board. -Year Bond Yield (2.7) Fed Funds Rate (1.13) Yield Curve 9/ Figure 8. YIELD CURVE* (basis points) /27 75 * US Treasury -year bond yield less federal funds rate. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

7 11 Figure 9. US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE YIELD (percent) High Yield Bonds Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board Figure. YIELD SPREAD: US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS US TREASURY -YEAR BOND (basis points, daily) Spread (331) * US high-yield corporate less -Year Treasury. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board. Page 5 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

8 Dollar & Commodities Figure 11. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=, daily) Trade-Weighted Dollar (115.98) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. 7 Figure 12. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX / CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 9/ Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

9 CESI 12 Figure 13. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar (-8.7) Source: Citigroup Figure 14. RELATIVE PRICE INDEX: S&P 5 GROWTH & VALUE (relative to S&P 5) Rising line indicates that the index is outperforming the S&P Growth relative to S&P 5 Value relative to S&P Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics..35 Page 7 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

10 S&P 5 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted Figure 15. S&P 5 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Figure 16. S&P 5 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale) Equal-weighted S&P 5 Market-cap-weighted S&P Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. 2 Page 8 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

11 S&P 5 Sectors Figure 17. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 5 sector price indexes INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES Page 9 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

12 S&P 4 Sectors Figure 18. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 4 sector price indexes INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY FINANCIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. UTILITIES Page / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

13 S&P 6 Sectors Figure 19. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 6 sector price indexes CONSUMER STAPLES ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. INDUSTRIALS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES Page 11 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

14 S&P 15 Sectors 7 65 Figure 2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIALS S&P 15 sector price indexes CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s. MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES Page 12 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

15 S&P 15/5/4/6 YTD Performance All Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecom Services Utilities Figure 21. S&P S&P 5 LargeCap S&P 4 MidCap S&P 6 SmallCap Page 13 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

16 8 75 Figure 22. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Figure 23. CONSUMER STAPLES S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Page 14 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

17 13 12 Figure 24. ENERGY S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Figure 25. FINANCIALS S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Page 15 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

18 22 2 Figure 26. HEALTH CARE S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Figure 27. INDUSTRIALS S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Page 16 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

19 Figure 28. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Figure 29. MATERIALS S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Page 17 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

20 4 35 Figure 3. TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES S&P 5 Sector Price Indexes S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Figure 31. UTILITIES S&P 5 S&P 4 S&P Page 18 / September 25, 217 / Daily Markets Overview

21 Copyright (c) 217. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on, blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of, blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@