Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 17, 2 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 13 13 Figure 1. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=1) Broad Effective Exchange Rate (118.81) day moving average. Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan. Figure 2. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Eurozone (1.6) Japan (1.1) US (2.) Q Source: Haver Analytics Page 1 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 Figure 3. US IMPORT PRICES & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) Import Price Index: Nonpetroleum Imports (yearly percent change) (-3.4) Oct Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JP Morgan. Figure 4. PPI INTERMEDIATE GOODS EX FOOD & ENERGY & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 9 1 Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) PPI: Intermediate Goods Excluding Food & Energy (yearly percent change) (-4.) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 Figure. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) Expected Inflation in 1-Year TIPS* * Yield spread between 1-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 8 Figure 6. CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (118.8) Sep 12 PCED: Ex Food & Energy (yearly percent change) (1.3) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 7 7 6 Figure 7. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (billion dollars, saar) Q Rest of World Profits Net Receipts Payments * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 8. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD (as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits*) Rest of World Profits Net Receipts Payments Q2 2 1 * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 Figure 9. S&P REVENUES & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Broad Effective Exchange Rate (inverted scale) (12.3) S&P Revenues (using dollars per share) (-3.2) FN1 *Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Figure 1. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Q3 11/ / / Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) (12.3) S&P Forward Earnings** (-1.1) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. ** Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and JP Morgan. Page / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 4 Figure 11. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM REST OF WORLD & US MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (yearly percent change) Q Receipts* (-1.8) Exports (-6.7) Sep * Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. 4 Figure 12. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC* & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 16 Sep 3 14 Oct Real Merchandise Exports (billions of dollars, saar) 8 Outbound (TEUs, thousands, 12-month sum) * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Containers. TEUs=2-foot equivalent units. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 6 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 8 Figure 13. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) / * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Figure 14. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) / * Nearby futures price. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / November 17, 2 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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