Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 5, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: -1 (ratio scale) 11/ day moving average % (517) -1.% (7) -19.% (157) -9.% () -9.9% () -7.7% -5.% () (3) -5.% (19) % () -1.%-13.3% (9) (1) -1.% (13) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. -9.9% (39) 5 3 Figure. S&P 5 INDEX P / 7 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Note: P = Fed Chairman Powell interview on October 3. Source: Standard & Poor s. 5 Page 3 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 3 3 1 Figure 3. S&P 5 AFTER MID-TERM ELECTIONS: 1951-now* (percent changes 3//1 months from day of elections) 11/ M +15. M M M +. M M M +.7 M M M +1.7 M +. 1M M +5.1 M M M +3.5 M M M +. M M M +13. M M M +1.9 M +. 1M M +3.3 M M M +1.5 M M +. 3M (7.) M +1. 1M M +.9 M +9. 1M M +9.3 M +1. 1M M +1.5 M M M +13. M M * S&P 5 up (down) during 1-month span following election day in green (red) shaded area. Prior to 199, markets were closed on election day, therefore used "latest close" for those dates. Source: Haver Analytics, YRI calculations. 1 Figure. S&P 5 REVENUES & US PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY Q Oct S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share, yearly percent change) US Purchasing Managers Survey: Manufacturing PMI Source: Standard & Poor s and Institute for Supply Management Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 15 Figure 5. S&P 5 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 19 Figure. S&P 5 FORWARD REVENUES & EARNINGS PER SHARE / Forward Revenues* (1.5) 15 Forward Earnings* (175.) 1/ * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 5 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 Figure 7. PRODUCTIVITY & REAL GDP: NONFARM BUSINESS (yearly percent change) Real NFB Output (3.7) Real GDP (3.) Real NFB Output (3.7) Productivity (1.3) Real NFB Output (3.7) Hours Worked (.) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 1 1 Figure. PRODUCTIVITY (quarterly percent change, saar) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Figure 9. UNIT LABOR COSTS (yearly percent change) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - Page 7 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 1 1 1 Figure 1. COMPENSATION MEASURES (yearly percent change) Average Hourly Earnings All Workers (3.1) Average Hourly Earnings Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (3.) ECI Total Compensation (.9) Nonfarm Hourly Compensation (including benefits) (.) Oct Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 11. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX FOR PRIVATE INDUSTRY WORKERS / NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY VS CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DEFLATOR (yearly percent change) Ratio ECI & Productivity Core PCED Deflator 5 Sep Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. -5 Page / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 1 Figure 1. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS PRODUCTION & NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS* (1 dollars per hour, ratio scale) Sep * Average hourly earnings deflated by personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics Figure 13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: TOTAL, SHORT-TERM, & LONG-TERM (percent) Total (3.7) Short-Term* (.9) Long-Term** (.) Oct * Unemployed for less than 7 weeks. ** Unemployed for 7 weeks and longer. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 Figure 1. US TREASURY 1-YEAR & -YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE (percent) Interest Rates 1-Year Bond Yield (3.) -Year Treasury Yield (.91) Fed Funds Rate Target (.13) Source: Federal Reserve Board. 11/ 11/ 11/ Figure YEAR US TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield (3.) TIPS Yield (1.1) 11/ 11/ Source: Federal Reserve Board. - Page 1 / November 5, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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