Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing May 1, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Figure 1. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR PCED Headline (.) Core* (1.9) * Excluding food and energy prices. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE QE US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS Announced Tapering * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11//8) = Fed starts buying $1.tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (/16/9) = Fed starts buying $bn in Treasuries. QE (11//1) = Fed starts buying $6bn in Treasuries. QE (9/1/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE expanded (1/1/1) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 . Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TARGET RANGE (percent) /. 1 Top of Range Bottom of Range / Source: Federal Reserve Board... Figure. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR... 1 Fed Funds Rate PCED Ex Food & Energy / Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis.. Page / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
4 6 Figure. PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS (-quarter percent change, annual rate) 6 Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 1 Figure 6. S&P PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES (percent) / Q S&P Operating Profit gins -week Forward* (1.) Thomson Reuters (1.9) S&P (1.) * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. Source: Standard & Poor s (for actual revenues) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (for forward revenues). Page / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
5 8 7 Figure 7. PRICES PAID & RECEIVED Prices Paid* (.) Prices Received** (.) Apr 6 Apr * Average of prices paid Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are mulitplied by 1 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regional diffusion indexes. ** Average of prices received Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond. Figure 8. PRICES PAID* MINUS PRICES RECEIVED** (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, Richmond) Spread (.1) Apr * Average of prices paid Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are mulitplied by 1 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regional diffusion indexes. ** Average of prices received Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond. Page 6 / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
6 8 7 Figure 9. PRICES PAID & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX 7 6 Apr / Prices Paid* (.) CRB Raw Industrials Price Index (1.) * Average of prices paid Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are mulitplied by 1 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regional diffusion indexes. Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond Figure 1. PRICES PAID & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 1 Apr 1 1 / Prices Paid* (.) Brent Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) (7.) * Average of prices paid Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philly, and Richmond. Richmond prices are not diffusion indexes, but rather average annualized inflation rates. They are mulitplied by 1 in this chart for easier comparisons to other regional diffusion indexes. Source: Survey of business conditions conducted regionally by Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Financial Times. Page 7 / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 11. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: WAGES & SALARIES vs. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (.9) Average Hourly Earnings All Workers (.7) Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. ATLANTA FED S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Wage Growth Tracker* (.) Average Hourly Earnings** (.) * Overall. 1-month moving average of median wage growth. ** Production and nonsupervisory workers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Page 8 / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Wireless Telephone Services (-.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICES 1 9 Medical Care Services CPI (.1) PCED* (.) * Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
9 .. Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICES Rent Of Primary Residence CPI (.6) PCED* () * Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics... 1 Figure 16. HOUSEHOLD FORMATION: OWNERS vs RENTERS (millions, yearly change in four-quarter average) Owner-Occupiers Q Renters Q Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics Page 1 / May 1, 18 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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