Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 12, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. S&P 5 INDEX Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 2. FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P 5 INDEX* (daily) 2 S&P 5 LargeCap (16.5) * Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 3 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 3 29 Figure 3. S&P 5 INDEX TCJA Enacted Fed Tightening Tantrum Trump Elected Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 4. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (yearly percent change) Jan Private Industry (2.9) Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (2) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 4 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 3.5 3 Figure 5. 1-YEAR US TREASURY BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 1-Year Treasury Bond Yield (23) TIPS Yield (.78) Figure 6. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (5) * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Page 5 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 Figure 7. S&P 5 BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: (ratio scale) day moving average % (517) -16% (7) -19% (157) -9% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% (62) -5% (34) % (19) -7% (28) -12% (96) -13.3% (1) Note: Corrections are declines of 1% or more, while minor ones are 5%-1% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 2% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor s. -% (13) Figure 8. S&P 5 INDEX (as a percent of 2-day moving average) % from 2-day moving average (2.9) Source: Standard & Poor s Page 6 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 14 13 Figure 9. S&P 5 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 5 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* S&P 5 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / Consensus Forecasts Annual Margins Forward Margins* (11) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 6 Page 7 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 -1 Figure 1. FED S ANNOUNCED BALANCE SHEET TAPERING (billion dollars) Total (5) Treasuries (3) MBS (2) Figure 11. FED S ANNOUNCED BALANCE SHEET TAPERING (cumulative since October 217, trillion dollars) Total (4.1) Treasuries (3.9) MBS (2.6) Page 8 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 Figure 12. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE2 QE US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS Announced Tapering * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11/25/8) = Fed starts buying $4tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/29) = Fed starts buying $3bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/1) = Fed starts buying $6bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $4bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries..6.2 Figure 13. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE2 QE3 US Treasuries Announced Tapering * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11/25/8) = Fed starts buying $4tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/29) = Fed starts buying $3bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/1) = Fed starts buying $6bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $4bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries. Page 9 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 Figure 14. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 QE2 QE Mortgage-Backed Securities Announced Tapering * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday. Note: QE1 (11/25/8) = Fed starts buying $4tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/29) = Fed starts buying $3bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/1) = Fed starts buying $6bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $4bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries. Figure 15. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Dec Source: US Treasury Department Page 1 / February 12, 218 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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