Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing ober 31, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. STOCK PRICE: 3M (MMM) (ratio scale, weekly) 19 1 / Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Figure. US M-PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE ISM Manufacturing Composite Index 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) (capped at %) Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. / Page 3 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 Figure 3. GLOBAL M-PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE Global Manufacturing PMI Index - 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) / Source: JP Morgan/IHS Markit and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. -3 Figure. EUROZONE M- PMI & 3M STOCK PRICE Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index 3M Weekly Stock Price (y/y % change) / Source: JP Morgan/IHS Markit and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 Figure. CHINA: RETAIL SALES & CPI (yearly percent change) 1 Retail Sales (9.) CPI (.) Real Retail Sales* (.7) * Yearly percent change in retail sales minus yearly percent change in CPI. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Figure. CHINA: REAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH* (1-month average of yearly percent change) * Yearly percent change in retail sales minus yearly percent change in CPI. Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 Figure 7. MISERY INDEX vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Misery Index* Consumer Confidence Index * Yearly percent change in consumer price index plus unemployment rate. Source: The Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure. S&P FORWARD P/E RATIO & MISERY INDEX Misery Index* (.) S&P Forward P/E** (1.) * Unemployment rate plus yearly percent change in consumer price index. ** Average monthly S&P stock price index divided by S&P 1-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 1 Figure 9. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS (percent) Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P bear market declines of % or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure. WAGES & PRICES (yearly percent change) 1 Average Hourly Earnings* Core PCED * Production & nonsupervisory workers Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 7 7 Figure 11. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent saying so) Jobs Plentiful* (.9) Jobs Hard To Get* (13.) * Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board. 7 Figure 1. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL 1 Average Hourly Earnings* (yearly percent change) (.7) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Plentiful** (.9) * Production & nonsupervisory workers. ** Every other month from 197 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 3 3 1 Figure 13. ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* (percent saying so) Q * Every other month from 197 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July Seasonally adjusted. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 Figure 1. S&P FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 3 S&P Forward P/E* (1.) Weekly Consumer Comfort Index** (.1) /1 / * Average weekly price divided by -week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Index plus. Source: Standard & Poor s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Bloomberg. Page 9 / ober 31, 1 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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