Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing November 7, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 8 6 Figure 1. REAL GDP & Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS (quarterly percent change, saar) Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX & Q1 SEASONAL WEAKNESS (percent) Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. Source: Citigroup. Based on US Dollar (.9) 11/ Page 3 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 1 1 Figure 3. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX* Total (113.3) Present (133.8) Expectations (99.8) * Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Figure. YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & PRIVATE WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Sep YRI Earned Income Proxy* Private Wages & Salaries * Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 5. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 1 1 Figure 5. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (1985=1, sa) Age Group Under 35 (16.1) 35-5 (133.9) 55+ (116) Source: The Conference Board Figure 6. HOUSEHOLD FORMATION: OWNERS vs RENTERS (millions, yearly change in four-quarter average) Owner-Occupiers Renters Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics Page 5 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 1 Figure 7. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 75 1 Jobs Hard To Get* (percent saying so) Unemployment Rate (percent) * Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 8. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: TOTAL, SHORT-TERM, & LONG-TERM (percent) Total (.1) Short-Term* (3.1) Long-Term** (1.) * Unemployed for less than 7 weeks. ** Unemployed for 7 weeks and longer. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 6 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 Figure 9. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP: EQUIPMENT & STRUCTURES CEO Outlook (>5=expansion) CEO Outlook (>5=expansion) Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. Capital Spending: Equipment (yearly percent change) Capital Spending: Structures (yearly percent change) Figure 1. NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS EXCLUDING AIRCRAFT (trillion dollars, saar).9.8 Orders Shipments Sep Source: Census Bureau. Page 7 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 11. DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES (ratio scale) Industrials (DJIA) Transportation (DJTA) 11/ Source: The Wall Street Journal. 7 Figure 1. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS /8 Sep Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, nsa, 6-wa) (5.9) ATA Truck Tonnage Index (=1, sa, 3-ma) (1.6) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems. 95 Page 8 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 7 Figure 13. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs* 5 National Composite M-PMI (=58.7) New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. (=.1) NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs National Orders M-PMI (=63.) New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas. (=1.3) US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs National Employment M-PMI (59.8) New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (18.8) * Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. -5 Page 9 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 Figure 1. S&P 5 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER* 11/3 8 S&P 5 Index 18 Boom-Bust Barometer * CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor s Figure 15. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER (weekly) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* Boom-Bust Barometer** /8 11/ * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year. ** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average. Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

10 5 3 Figure 16. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS Ratio Bull/Bear Ratio Ratio / Percentage Bulls Bears Bulls Bears / Percentage Correction Camp Correction / Source: Investors Intelligence Page 11 / November 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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