Is Deflation Coming? Inflation. November 1997

Transcription

1 November 1997 Is Deflation Coming? Judging from the spate of newspaper articles and commentary on the subject, many analysts are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of sustained deflation, which was last prevalent during the Great Depression, when it was viewed as a source o f economic turmoil. Those who fear deflation argue that U.S. monetary policy has been unduly tight at the wrong time when financial asset prices are at unsustainably high levels and when worldwide excess capacity has severely constrained firms ability to maintain or raise prices. The recent plummet of gold prices, many believe, can be viewed as one piece of supporting evidence for these assertions. Those who raise the specter of deflation in the United States, though, would be wise to consider a few additional facts. To begin with, disinflation, which has been seen in the United States for the past few years, is not the same as deflation. The latter is an ongoing decrease in the aggregate price level the opposite of inflation. The former occurs when the price index rises at a slower rate for example, 2 percent inflation versus 3 percent inflation. Second, changes in relative prices can sometimes give the impression that all prices are declining. For example, the PPI declined over each of the first seven months of 1997, due partly to lower food and energy prices. However, the PPI is not a good measure of the aggregate price level. Rather, it is a subset of it. Moreover, as the chart shows, the PPI fluctuates quite a bit in response to these transitory influences especially relative to broader price indexes. Many people instead regard the consumer price index (CPI) as a good proxy for the aggregate price level because of its widespread use for cost-of-living adjustments. The broadest measure of the price level is the GDP chain-type price index, which is an output price index that encompasses goods and services not captured in the CPI, such as investment goods. No matter which index one chooses to follow, however, deflation does not actually occur unless the price index declines. Most forecasters do not expect this to occur. For example, current projections from the Congressional Budget Office expect some upward drift in the CPI and GDP price indexes over a longer-term horizon. Privatesector forecasters, as reflected by the Blue Chip consensus, are largely in agreement with this outlook. In fact, even those projecting the least inflation foresee prices increasing by an average of about 2 percent or slightly higher over the next 10 years. Thus, while both the CPI and the GDP price index have been on a disinflation track recently, and possibly expected to continue to do so, they are still far from the negative territory of deflation. So why the recent hubbub over the possibility of deflation? Perhaps analysts are concerned that the Fed s commitment to price stability will result in brief periods of deflation. Indeed, such periods are not out of the question in a low-inflation environment, but they are not necessarily cause for alarm. In any case, the likelihood of such an event, as best forecasters can judge, is not high. Percent 25 Inflation Annual Dsta Kevin L. Kliesen NOTE: The values for 1997 are annualized rates of change for the first three quarters of The values for 1998 to 2007 are CBO forecasts in "The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update," September Projections CPI Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

2 National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the. For more information on data, please call (314) Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office,, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO or by calling (314) or (314) Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) or Internet World Wide Web server at Tabi eofcon ten ts Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on November 4, Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t - 1 and the current quarter t is: 100 x X, \ 4-1 H -1 For monthly data replace 4 with All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

3 National Economicïïends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change Industrial Production Percent change Interest Rates Percent I...I I... I Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Unemployment Rate Percent of labor force

4 4 NationalEconomicTrends 10 Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers (NAPMj Indexes 18 Index - 74 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours 12 - Peal Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP " I I I...I I I! I...T" T I...I... I I ' I I... I I I I... I...ï I I...I I

5 UationaìEconomicTrends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions 8 - r Advance W777777L Final [ Preliminary I Annual Revision Industrial Production and NAPH Index Percent change Index I 96:3 96:4 97:1 97:2 97:3 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Hours 35.0 I. 1 I I.. L i h i i» ii... I [ i i «- 2 -[...[...] [ Real Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 dollars Inventory-Sales Ratio Manufacturing and trade

6 6 National EconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Q4 96Q1 96Q2 96Q3 96Q4 97Q1 97Q2 97Q3 Consumption E S Exports i j Government Real GDP B i l l i g Imports I I Inventories Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Real GDP Final Sales Change in Inventory Consumption Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Net Exports Exports Imports Residual

7 National Econom/cftenc/s Interest Rates Percent Treasury Yield Curve Percent H... 3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y 30y Total Return on Standard and Poor s

8 8 HationalEconomlcTrends Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour 1 5 -

9 fiaiionaìeconomictrends Crude Oil Price Dollars per barrel ( 1993 f 1994 [ 1995 ' 1996! Consumer Price Index Percent change Consumption Chain Price Index Excl. Food & Energy Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change Unit Labor Cost Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour

10 10 National EconomicTrends Employment Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force 15 Percent of population - 70 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks » g I ' I *\ i f j p i É \ Unemployed < 5 weeks Unemployed > 15 weeks 225 ' i f > 15 weeks " I ;/ 10 Median i i i I i i r I r ~! I I I : : ! t t i > - 4

11 National EconomicTrends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands l i TTTJ.. 1 1,1 I k Change in Household Employment Thousands Labor Force and Population l i 0 250, l l I i n l i i a I. l l l. l l 1 I 1 f i I T I I I I n Unemployment Rate Percent Help-Wanted Advertising Index Percent

12 12 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income, quarterly data Real Consumption Durables I t f i i i i..f"'t "MT ï i f i i i r i..i l i i i i i r ~ Retail Sales of quarterly average Percent Percent - 12

13 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income Percent change Personal Saving Rate Percent I 1 I 1 l l I I inllil.il I. I l f 1995 [ ! Real Consumption Percent change Real Consumption Percent change Retail Sales Percent change j... I...I Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change Autos and light trucks Millions of vehicles, annual rate Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Index 110 Real Durables Consumption Percent change I...I...I...I...I... ' "I...T...T...I 1995 '

14 14 National EconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP 22 - Real Private Fixed Investment 24 - Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment I T'"' I..I I I.. I ~P I I I.. I.. I.. I.. T.. I.. I.. I... T.. I I I.. I I ) Real Residential Investment

15 National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP T - 4 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, excluding aircraft ( 1993 ( 1994 f 1995 f 1996 f 1997 Real Equipment Investment Real Nonresidential Investment Real Residential Investment 20 - Housing Starts Millions, annual rate

16 16 National EconomicTrends Govt. Consumption and Investment Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 Government Receipts and Outlays Percent of GDP Federal Outlays, 1996 Federal Receipts, 1996 Defense 20.91% Personal Income Social Security 20.41% / Iet Interest 3.37% Other 7.29% Corp. Profit 12.25% Medicare 11.71% Medicaid 5.50% Other 28.09% Social Insurance 38.46% State and Local Outlays, 1996 State and Local Receipts, 1996 Income Education 37.72% r Corp. Profit 3.31% Medical Care 17.44% Transportation 7.00% Safety 10.81% Other 17.99% Property 19.39% 1 iá j Federal Grants 20.92% / Other

17 Gross Federal Debt Percent of GDP Federai Deficit Percent of GDP 6 NationaìEconomìcTrends 4 2 Change in Gross Federal Debt Percent of GDP Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Calendar Years Unified Budget Fiscal Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit(-) Receipts Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit(-) Receipts Federal Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) ' NA NA NA NA NA NA

18 18 National Economic Trends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars Exchange Rates Index, March 1973 = x (Deutsche mark/us$) YenAJS$ Goods Export Shares, 1996 Goods Import Shares, 1996 Mexico 9.28% All Other 32.23% All Other 36.60% Mexico Canada 21.93% Other OECD 14.26% Canada 19.41% Other OECD 9.62% Japan 11.05% u* Germany 5.06% 3.84% Japan 14.34% 3.61% Germany 4.85%

19 NationalEconomlcTrends Trade Balance Billions of dollars Goods Trade Current Account Balance Billions of dollars 0 Services Trade Exports Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners United Kingdom 9 - Germany France ' 1997 Japan

20 20 HationaiEconom icïïends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent Nonfarm Compensation per Hour _ 5 _ T t (...- y ]...I I...] Y I...I T I I f...i...i...i... I I I Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 7.5

21 NationaiEconomicTrends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour T Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent 5 t 1 f ~ " i r I r I [...! I I i r r T r t i i i t r Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) 80-21

22 National Economic Trends Billions of $ Nominal GDP Annual Year rate ago Billions Of 1992 $ Real GDP Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Final Sales Annua Year rate ago Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago Billions of 1992 $ Consumption Annual Year rate ago Durables Consumption Billions of 1992 $ Annual Year rate ago Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1992 $ Annual Year rate ago Nonresidential Investment Billions of 1992 $ Annua Year rate ago '

23 National Economicïïends GDP Chain Price Index Annual Year Index rate ago Employment Cost Index Percent chanqe Annual Year Index rate ago Index ECI: Wages Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index ECI: Benefits Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Exports Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Imports Percent chanqe Annual Year rate ago Nonfarm Output per Hour Percent change Annual Year Index rate ago Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Percent chanqe Annual Year Index rate ago

24 NationalEconomicTrends Thousands Household Survev EmDlovment Nonfarm Pavroll Emolovment Nonfarm Aaareaate Hours Change Annual rate Year ago Thousands Change Annual rate Year ago Index Monthly rate Annual rate Year ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Federal 24 Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25 National Economicïïends Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Retail Sales Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Index Industrial Production Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Treasury Yields 3-m o 10-yr Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

26 26 National Economic Trends Consumer Price Index Percent chanqe V/unsumer rnue muex less Food and Energy rroaucer rrice maex Finished Goods index Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Year to date Index Monthly/ quarterly Annual rate Year ago Year to date Index Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate Year ago Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

27 National EconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more complete information. The Purchasing M anagers Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.i)/GDP,.i)4-1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on the Standard and Poor s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of the index plus the percent change in the index. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers private nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in January 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term comparisons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.- owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: O utput per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of inflation. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustm ents (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value o f existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and i n- vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensation per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capacity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27

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