U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
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- Everett Barton
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1 U.S. Economy and Financial Markets Economic Growth and Output Business Income and Finance Business Inventory Business Investment Consumption Housing Investment Income and Savings U.S. Aggregate Demand and Industrial Production Employment Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Nonfarm Payroll Employment Health Sector Indicators Medical Care Expenditures, Inflation and Employment Inflation Commodity Prices PPI Inflation Core CPI Inflation CPI Inflation PCE and Core PCE Chain Price Indexes Wages Leading Indicators Composite Indexes Monetary Conditions Money Growth Rates: M1, M, and M3 U.S. Trade Trade Summary Net Exports and Current Account Trade in Goods and Services Exports by Destination Exports by Destination Exports by Destinations Exports by Destination Imports by Origin Imports by Origin Oil Imports
2 FINANCING GAP -- CAPITAL SPENDING LESS CASH FLOW NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS -quarter Moving Average of Flows Billions of dollars Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors nd quarter CORPORATE PROFITS WITH IVA AND CCADJ Annual Rate Billions of dollars Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3rd quarter 1,58.5 NET INTEREST PAYMENTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS Percent Nonfinancial Corporations rd quarter Note: Gross operating surplus is defined as a net operating surplus plus consumption of fixed capital. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES Months of sales MANUFACTURING INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS Months of sales Billions of dollars Inventory-Sales Ratio Durables Nondurables -1 - Change in Inventory Stock Source: Bureau of the Census Source: Bureau of the Census..97 TRADE INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS Months of sales Retail Retail exl. autos Wholesale Source: Bureau of the Census...11
4 NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS SHIPMENTS Billions of dollars 8 PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Annual Rate Billions of dollars Shipments Excluding aircraft Source: Bureau of the Census Source: Bureau of the Census. 1 NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS AND BACKLOGS Billions of dollars Excluding aircraft New orders Unfilled orders Excluding aircraft Source: Bureau of the Census
5 RETAIL SALES REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Percent change Total.19 1/1 Quarterly Averages Percent change Quarterly Averages Excluding Autos Source: Bureau of the Census. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. LIGHT MOTOR VEHICLE SALES Annual Rate Millions of units 18 Total Cars and Light Trucks Domestic and Foreign Cars Domestic Cars Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis...11
6 Millions of units. HOUSING STARTS Annual Rate 7 Millions of units SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES Annual Rate Single-family Existing Multiple Source: Bureau of the Census Newly Built Sources: Bureau of the Census Percent EFFECTIVE MORTGAGE RATE AND THE TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD Effective mortgage rate* 5 3 Ten-year Treasury yield * Average effective rate on fixed-rate, 3-year conventional mortgages. Sources: Freddie Mac and U.S. Department of the Treasury...11
7 REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME PERSONAL SAVING RATE Percent change Quarterly Averages Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. CONSUMER SURVEYS 1 Index University of Michigan Q1 19=1 Conference Board 1985= Sources: University of Michigan; NFO Research Inc. and The Conference Board...11
8 Percent change REAL GDP th quarter 3. Percent change REAL DOMESTIC PURCHASES AND DOMESTIC FINAL DEMAND Real Domestic Purchases Real Domestic Final Demand th quarter -.3 th quarter Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. Percent change Quarterly Averages Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
9 Percent CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Note: Household data beginning January 199 are based on a comprehensively redesigned survey and are not directly comparable with previously published estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hours Jan 9. Change, Thousands of persons HOURS WORKED Weekly hours in manufacturing NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Quarterly Averages Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Private nonfarm Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11
10 NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Average Semiannual, Quarterly and Monthly Changes, Thousands of persons 5 Manufacturing Service Producing st nd 1st 1 nd 1st nd 1st 3 nd 1st nd 1st 5 nd 1st nd 1st 7 nd 1st 8 nd Q3 8 Q Jan 1 11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11
11 Medical Care Expenditures (Percent of Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures and Nominal GDP) Percent Percent as % of Personal Consumption Expenditure Q= Percent Medical Care Inflation (Percent change over a year ago) 1 Medical Care 3.3 Total CPI 1. Percent Medical Care Component * 8 1 as % of GDP Q= Total CPI Total CPI Methodologically Consistent* *Medical care expenditures include medical care goods, which include prescription and nonprescription drugs, internal and respiratory over-the-counter drugs, and nonprescription equipment and supplies, and medical care services which include hospitals, physician, dental, eyecare, and services by other medical professionals. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *The medical care component includes medical care goods, which include prescription and nonprescription drugs, internal and respiratory over-the-counter drugs, and non-prescription medical equipment and supplies, and medical care services by other medical care professionals. In 195 medical care represented 5.8% of the total CPI and in 199 it represented 7.3% of the total CPI. *Note: Methodologically consistent series uses FRBNY seasonals before Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 3 Percent Growth of Health Care Employment (Percent change over a year ago) Health Care Employment 1 Health Care 1.9 Total Nonfarm.7 Percent 5 3 Percent Health Care Employment (Percent of Total Nonfarm Employment) Percent Total Nonfarm Employment *Health care employment includes offices and clinics of doctors of medicine,dentists, doctors of osteopathy and other health practitioners,nursing and personal care facilities, hospitals,medical and dental laboratories,home health care services and miscellaneous health and allied services. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Health care employment includes offices and clinics of doctors of medicine,dentists, doctors of osteopathy and other health practitioners,nursing and personal care facilities, hospitals,medical and dental laboratories,home health care services and miscellaneous health and allied services. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11 REG_
12 COMMODITY PRICES IMF Commodity Price Index (Excluding Fuels) Index, =1 1 U.S. Spot Crude Petroleum Price West Texas Intermediate, dollars per barrel Nov Feb U.S. Producer Prices for Raw Materials Index, =1 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Commodity Research Bureau Spot Prices Index for Raw Materials, =1 (Knight-Ridder) Jan Jan NOTE: Price data not seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Spot Crude Petroleum Price: U.S. Department of Energy; Current Value--WSJ. February, 11
13 Percent PPI INFLATION Quarterly change, annualized Excluding food and energy Finished goods January figure is change from October, annualized. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11
14 Percent 1 CORE CPI INFLATION Quarterly change, annualized Less food and energy Less food and energy Methodologically Consistent January figure is change from October, annualized. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11
15 Percent 15 CPI INFLATION Quarterly change, annualized 1 All items 5 3. All items Methodologically Consistent* January figure is change from October, annualized. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics...11
16 PCE AND CORE PCE CHAIN PRICE INDEXES.5 Year-over-year percent change Year-over-year percent change Personal consumption expenditure (=1) Core PCE (=1) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. -Feb-11
17 = Leading Indicators COMPOSITE INDEXES 11. Source: The Conference Board. 7 Diffusion index Purchasing Managers Source: Institute for Supply Management...11
18 Percent M1 GROWTH Change from 3-months and 1-months earlier Percent M GROWTH Change from 3-months and 1-months earlier Change from 3-months Change from 1-months 1 Jan Jan 5 - Change from 3-months -5 Change from 1-months Source: Federal Reserve Board. -Feb-11
19 U.S. TRADE SUMMARY 7 1 Goods and Services SA, Bil.$ Imports (: 3.5) Exports (: 13.) Current Account Balance SAAR, Bil.$ Trade Balance SA, Bil.$ Net Export Contribution to Real GDP SAAR, percent Source: Haver February, 11
20 U.S. Net Exports and Current Account -5 Current Account Balance SAAR, Bil.$ Net Export Contribution to Real GDP SAAR, percent Net Investment Income SAAR, Bil.$ - Real Net Exports of Goods and Services SAAR, Bil. Chained $ Q Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/U.S. Census February, 11
21 U.S. Trade in Goods and Services Exports and Imports of Goods and Services SA, Bil.$ Exports (: 13.) Imports (: 3.5) Trade Balance in Goods and Services SA, Bil.$ Exports of Goods Percent change over year-ago level Imports of Goods Percent change over year-ago level 3 Value (: 13.7) Volume (: 1.7) Value (: 1.8) Volume (: 9.8) Source: Haver February, 11
22 U.S. Exports by Destination Percent change over year-ago level, three-month moving average 3 Total 1% Canada 19% Europe 1% 3 Japan 5% NOTE: Trade in goods only. Europe = EU-5 + Switzerland + Norway. Figures below titles indicate share of total US exports of goods in 1. February, 11
23 U.S. Exports by Destination Percent change over year-ago level, three-month moving average 5 Mexico 13% NICs 9% Central and South America 11% 8 Pacific Rim 11% NOTE: Figures below titles indicate share of total US exports of goods in 1. Pacific Rim figures exclude Japan and NICs. February, 11
24 U.S. Exports by Destination Percent change over year-ago level, three month moving average 8 China 9% 1 Korea 3% OPEC % 1 Taiwan % NOTE: China includes Hong Kong Figures below titles indicate share of overall US exports of goods in 1. February, 11
25 U.S. Exports by Destination Percent change over year-ago level, three month moving average 9 Malaysia 9 Philippines Indonesia Thailand Source: Haver February, 11
26 U.S. Imports by Origin Percent change over year-ago level, three-month moving average Total 1% Canada 1% Europe 18% Japan % NOTE: Trade in goods only. Europe = EU-5 + Switzerland + Norway. Figures below titles indicate share of overall US imports of goods in 1. February, 11
27 U.S. Imports by Origin Percent change over year-ago level, three-month moving average Mexico 1% NICs % Central and South America 7% China 19% NOTE: Figures below titles indicate share of overall US imports of goods in 1 February, 11
28 U.S. Petroleum Imports Oil Imports Levels, SA Value (: 31.7) Volume (: 19.) 3 Oil Import Volume Percent change over year-ago level Price (Crude Oil) Dollars per barrel, SA 15 Price (Crude Oil) Percent change over year-ago level February, 11
United States. GDP Growth Annualized Percentage Change. Industrial Production Annualized Percentage Change
Output Indicators GDP Growth Annualized Percentage Change Industrial Production Annualized Percentage Change 0 2 4 6 2.3-5 0 5 4.5 GDP Growth Industrial Production 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.9-4 -2
United States. Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level. Industrial Production Index, 2010=100. Unemployment Rate Percent
United States Summary Indicators Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level Industrial Production Index, 2010=100 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 108 110 112 114 114.9 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
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