VEDP QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

Transcription

1 VEDP QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE September 2016 VIRGINIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP YESVIRGINIA.ORG 1

2 US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1 8% - Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

3 US WEEKLY INDICATORS 5% 8/3/2013 8/3/2014 8/3/2015 8/3/2016 Annual Change CPI PCE PI Sources: Johnson Redbook, US BLS, US BEA Weekly Retail Sales Weekly Mortgage Applications Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Purchase Index Target Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, VEDP analysis 500, , , , ,000 New Weekly Jobless Claims 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 New Claims Target Source: U.S. Department of Labor, VEDP analysis trillions Weekly Value of the Russell 3000 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 1/6/2012 1/6/2013 1/6/2014 1/6/2015 1/6/2016 Russell 3000 Target Sources: Russell Investments, VEDP analysis 3

4 US ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP Personal Consumption % % % 1.5% Business Investment Corporate Profits 1 8% % % % 1.7% -3. Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

5 US ECONOMIC INDICATORS Industrial Production Consumer Price Index % 2.9% 1.9% % Employment Cost Index Producer Price Index 1.9% 1.9% % % Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

6 US ECONOMIC INDICATORS 9% 8% 7% 5% Unemployment Rate millions New Car and Light Truck Sales Housing Starts Federal Budget Balance 1.4 $0.0 millions trillions -$0.5 -$1.0 -$1.09 -$0.68 -$0.49 -$ $1.5 Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

7 US CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES Rates above 85% suggest a need for additional capacity Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Source: Federal Reserve 7

8 US INDUSTRY TRENDS New Vehicle Sales Source: AutoData $6 $5 Metalworking Machinery Orders (USMTO) millions, SAAR billions $4 $3 $2 2 $1 0 Light Trucks Autos Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 $0 Jul-2011 Jan-11 Jul-2012 Jan-12 Jul-2013 Jan-13 Jul-2014 Jan-14 Jul-2015 Jan-15 Jul-2016 Jan month cumulative value Source: AMT 2 15% 1 5% E-Commerce Sales Source: USDOC % of All Retail Growth Rate 2011 Q Q Q Q Q Q2 annual change on 12-month total 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% Construction Spending Private - Residential Private - Nonresidential Source: USDOC Public Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 8

9 VIRGINIA EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Virginia Blacksburg Bristol Charlottesville Hampton Roads Harrisonburg Lynchburg Northern Virginia Richmond Roanoke Staunton-Waynesboro Winchester Employment Growth By MSA Percent (%) Percentage Change from Previous Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES), non-seasonally adjusted Virginia Blacksburg Bristol Charlottesville Hampton Roads Harrisonburg Lynchburg Northern Virginia Richmond Roanoke Staunton-Waynesboro Winchester Unemployment Rate By MSA Percent (%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS), non-seasonally adjusted Percent (%) US Recession Nonagricultural Employment Growth Virginia and the Nation Virginia Recession Total Nonagriculture Nat. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans. & Util. Information Financial Activities Prof. & Bus. Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government Virginia Employment Growth By Major Sector Jan1999 Jan2003 Jan2007 Jan2011 Jan2015 Jan2001 Jan2005 Jan2009 Jan Percent (%) US Actual VA Actual Actual 12 Month Forecast Percentage Change from Previous Year Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES), QCEW Percentage Change from Previous Year Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Analytics Actual data are through August 2016 and the forecast data are through August

10 VIRGINIA EXPORT TRENDS Virginia Merchandise Exports by Commodity: January June 2016 (YTD) Rank HS Code Description Export Value %Δ 16/15 Top 3 Export Destinations Total All Virginia Exports $ 8,392,243, Canada China Mexico 1 84 Industrial Machinery $ 1,172,711, Canada Germany Mexico 2 85 Electrical Machinery $ 962,620, % Taiwan Singapore Algeria 3 87 Vehicles, Other Than Railway $ 580,468, Canada Australia Egypt 4 39 Plastics $ 570,800, % Canada China UK 5 90 Optical, Medical & Surgical Instruments $ 344,981, % Netherlands Germany UK 6 48 Paper & Paperboard $ 343,557, Canada China Japan 7 27 Mineral Fuels & Oils $ 342,133, Brazil Canada Germany 8 88 Aircraft & Spacecraft $ 315,688, Thailand Germany Canada 9 12 Oil Seeds & Misc. Grains $ 272,043, China Russia Tunisia Meats $ 255,116, % China Mexico Japan Wood & Articles Of Wood $ 210,719, UK China Canada Pharmaceutical Products $ 164,543, % Netherlands China UK Manmade Staple Fibers $ 161,943, Belgium Indonesia China Special Classification Provisions $ 157,169, % Germany Bahrain Dominican Rep Wadding, Felt & Nonwovens $ 152,382, % Belgium Canada China Source: Global Trade Atlas 10

11 VIRGINIA EXPORT TRENDS Virginia Exports by Country: January June, 2016 (YTD) Rank Country Export Value %Δ 16/15 World $ 8,392,243, Canada $ 1,493,930, % 2 China $ 776,694, Mexico $ 527,412, % 4 United Kingdom $ 499,111, Germany $ 452,910, Belgium $ 301,049, % 7 Taiwan $ 281,306, % 8 Netherlands $ 280,071, Japan $ 236,355, Korea, South $ 198,380, % 11 Singapore $ 156,865, Saudi Arabia $ 155,673, % 13 Brazil $ 155,411, Italy $ 127,796, Switzerland $ 120,127, % 16 Thailand $ 119,258, % 17 Australia $ 115,974, % 18 India $ 113,207, France $ 111,480, % 20 Algeria $ 111,003, Hong Kong $ 105,428, % 22 Indonesia $ 91,428, Egypt $ 90,385, % 24 Malaysia $ 81,431, % 25 Colombia $ 79,833, Source: Global Trade Atlas 11

12 GLOBAL GDP OUTLOOK 8% - - US China Japan Germany UK France Italy India Canada South Korea Latin America Eastern Europe Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

13 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Germany France United Kingdom Italy 8% % -1 Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

14 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1 Spain 8% Sweden 5% -5% -1 - Canada Japan % - Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

15 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK China India 25% 1 2 8% 15% 1 5% South Korea Australia 5% % 1 5% -5% -1-15% Source: Consensus Forecasts, September

16 FDI TRENDS BY SOURCE COUNTRY ANNOUNCED EMPLOYMENT United States Virginia Japan Germany UK France China Canada Italy Switzerland India Spain Australia Sweden South Korea Netherlands Mexico Israel Ireland Austria Denmark UAE Other 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 China UK Germany India France Sweden Italy Japan Spain Canada Switzerland Netherlands South Korea Ireland UAE Luxembourg Australia Brazil Kenya Other ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, data cover January to March. Source: fdi Markets 16

17 FDI TRENDS BY INDUSTRY ANNOUNCED EMPLOYMENT Textiles Consumer Products Software & IT services Automotive Components Real Estate Business Services Food & Tobacco Industrial Machinery Automotive OEM Financial Services Communications Plastics Metals Pharmaceuticals Leisure & Entertainment Transportation Paper, Printing & Packaging Chemicals Electronic Components Hotels & Tourism Other United States 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60, Business Services Paper, Printing & Packaging Financial Services Automotive Components Food & Tobacco Pharmaceuticals Communications Electronic Components Consumer Products Industrial Machinery Automotive OEM Textiles Metals Chemicals Aerospace Rubber Transportation Wood Products Alternative/Renewable energy Ceramics & Glass Other Virginia ,000 1,500 2,000 2, data cover January to March. Source: fdi Markets 17