National Economic Indicators. December 11, 2017

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1 National Economic Indicators December 11, 17

2 Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Nov :3 Q3-17 Real Gross Domestic Product Nov :3 Q Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Nov :3 Q3-17 Households Retail Sales Nov :3 Oct-17 7 Consumer Spending and Income Nov :3 Oct-17 8 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks Dec--17 1:3 Nov-17 9 Personal Saving Rate Nov :3 Oct-17 1 Household Net Worth Dec :31 Q Existing Single-Family Home Sales Nov : Oct-17 1 New Single-Family Home Sales Nov : Oct Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Nov :31 Oct-17 1 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Nov :31 Oct Business Investment Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Nov :3 Q Real Private Construction Put in Place Dec :1 Oct Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Nov :3 Q Real Investment in Equipment Nov :3 Q Real Investment in Intellectual Property Nov :3 Q3-17 Trade Balance of International Trade Dec--17 8:31 Oct-17 1 Exchange Value of the USD Nov : Nov-17 Manufacturing Industrial Production Nov :15 Oct-17 3 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing Nov :15 Oct-17 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity Dec :1 Nov-17 5 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity Dec : Nov-17 Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes Dec :1 Nov-17 7 Manufacturers' New Orders Dec--17 1: Oct-17 8 Core Capital Goods Dec--17 1: Oct-17 9 Business Inventory/Sales Ratios Dec :1 Oct-17 3

3 Table of Contents (continued) Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page Nonfarm Payroll Employment Dec :3 Nov-17 31, 3 Unemployment Rate Measures Dec :3 Nov-17 33,3 Non-Employment Index Nov : Oct Labor Market Flows Nov : Sep-17 3 Labor Force Participation Dec :3 Nov Aggregate Weekly Hours Index Dec :3 Nov Average Hourly Earnings Dec :3 Nov Employment Cost Index Oct :33 Q3-17 Business Labor Productivity Dec--17 8:31 Q Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business Dec--17 8:31 Q3-17 Inflation Table: Gauges of Inflation Dec--17 1:8 Nov-17 3 Expenditure Price Indexes Nov :3 Oct-17, 5 Consumer Price Indexes Nov :31 Oct-17 Producer Price Indexes Nov :3 Oct-17 7 Commodity Price Indexes Dec--17 1:8 Nov-17 8 Crude Oil Prices Dec Dec-17 9 TIPS Inflation Compensation Dec :59 1-Dec-17 5 Monetary Policy & Financial Markets Federal Reserve System Assets Dec :3 -Dec Monetary Policy Instruments Dec :19 8-Dec-17 5 Real Federal Funds Rate Nov :3 Nov FOMC Statement 5, 55 Eurodollar Futures Dec Dec-17 5 SEP: Federal Funds Rate 57 Monetary Base Dec :31 -Dec M Dec :3 Oct Money Market Rates Dec :19 8-Dec-17 Capital Market Rates Dec :19 8-Dec-17 1 Treasury Yield Curve Dec :37 8-Dec-17 Risk Premium Dec :19 8-Dec-17 3

4 Real Gross Domestic Product 1 17 Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment Intellectual Property Residential Fixed Investment Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (5) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories Net Exports of Goods & Services Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

5 Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the September 17 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. 5 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board Q3 3.3% FOMC Projection

6 Decomposition of Real GDP Year Annual Growth Rates GDP Productivity Employment Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

7 Retail Sales 1 1 Month % Change Month Annualized % Change October.% Month over Month % Change Aug. Sep. Oct. Total x Gasoline Note: Retail sales includes food services. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

8 Consumer Spending and Income 8 1 Month % Change 8 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure October Real Disposable Personal Income Month over Month % Change August September October Income Expenditures Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 8 and Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 8

9 Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles 18 Autos and Light Trucks November 17.7 mil Light Trucks Autos Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9

10 Personal Saving Rate 1 Percent of disposable personal income October 3.% Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary events Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 1

11 Household Net Worth 7 Percent of disposable personal income 7 Q Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics 11

12 Existing Single-Family Home Sales October Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics 1

13 New Single-Family Home Sales October Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 13

14 Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits. Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate Average Housing Starts Starts October Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 1

15 Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits.7 3-Month Moving Average, Millions of Starts & Permits, Annual Rate Permits..3 October Average Multi-Family Starts...1 Starts Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 15

16 Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3 -.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 1

17 Real Private Construction Put In Place 7 9$, Billions 7 57 Real Private Residential Construction Real Private Nonresidential Construction October Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 17

18 Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment 15 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3.7% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 18

19 Real Investment in Equipment Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3 1.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 19

20 Real Investment in Intellectual Property 1 1 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q3 5.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

21 Balance of International Trade -1 Current $, Billions Petroleum Balance Non- Petroleum Balance October -9 Bil Trade Balance Note: Customs Value of Trade Balance Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 1

22 Exchange Value of the USD 135 Index, March 1973 = October Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

23 Industrial Production = Mining Overall October Manufacturing Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 3

24 Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing 8 Percent October 7.% Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

25 Indexes of Manufacturing Activity 5 Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey: Current Conditions Composite Index (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 5

26 Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity 5 Diffusion Index, percent ISM (Left Axis) November Richmond Fed Service Sector Index: Revenues (Right Axis) Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics

27 ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov. Purchasing Managers Index Non-Manufacturing Index Production Business Activity. 1. New Orders 3.. New Orders Employment Employment Supplier Deliveries Supplier Deliveries Inventories Inventories Prices Prices.7.7 Backlog of Orders Backlog of Orders New Export Orders New Export Orders. 57. Imports Imports DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 5 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 7

28 Manufacturers New Orders September Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 8

29 Core Capital Goods New Orders 7 October 5 5 Shipments Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 9

30 Business Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.7 Percent Retailers Total Business October Manufacturers Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 3

31 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Millions of Persons November 17. mil Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 31

32 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Q Monthly Change Nov 8 Oct Sep 38 Aug 8 Jul Notes: White bar on the right is based on an incomplete quarter Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 3

33 Unemployment Rate Percent November.1% FOMC Projection Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q levels, from the September 17 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 33

34 Measures of Labor Utilization 18 Percent U: U5 + Involuntary Part-Time U5: U3 + Discouraged + Marginally Attached November U3: Official Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 3

35 Non-Employment Index 1 Percent Non-Employment Index Including People Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons Non-Employment Index October Based on Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First Quarter 1. 35

36 Labor Market Flows.5 Percent.5. September. Hires Rate* Job Openings Rate** Quits Rate* Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings. Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics 3

37 Labor Force Participation Percent of Population November Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 37

38 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index 18 Index, 7=1 November Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 38

39 Average Hourly Earnings Month % Change of 3-Month Moving Average Monthly % Change Nov.% Oct -.1% Sep.% Aug.1% Jul.5% November.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 39

40 Employment Cost Index. Year over Year % Change Benefits Cost Total Compensation Q Wages and Salaries Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

41 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change Quarterly Change at Annual Rate 5 Q % Q % Q1 17.1% Q 1 1.3% 5 3 Post-War Average (Labor Productivity) 3 Q3 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 1

42 Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business 5 3 Year over Year % Change Q3 1.% Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q3 17.5% Q 17.3% Q1 17.8% Q 1-5.7% Alternate Series Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

43 Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Sep. Oct. YoY % Personal Consumption Expenditures Core (excludes Food and Energy) Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Sep. Oct. YoY % All Items Core (excludes Food and Energy) Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: Sep. Oct. YoY % Finished Goods Core (excludes Food and Energy) Core Intermediate Goods Crude Goods Spot Commodity Price Index [Percent Change from Previous Month]: Oct. Nov. YoY % CRB Spot Commodity Price Index...3 Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 3

44 Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 5 1 Month % Change % Longer-run Target 1 October 1.% FOMC Projection Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the September 17 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

45 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 5 1 Month % Change month percentage change September 1.3% 1 FOMC Projection 1 month percentage change Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q/Q percent changes, from the September 17 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 5

46 Consumer Price Indexes 1 Month % Change 5 All Items Core CPI October September October CPI: All Items.5%.1% Core CPI.1%.% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

47 Producer Price Indexes Month % Change October (percent) All Finished Goods.9% Core Finished Goods.% Core Finished Goods October All Finished Goods Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 7

48 Commodity Price Indexes Month % Change 1 Month % Change PPI Core Intermediate Processed Materials (Left Axis) Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) November Price Indexes October November PPI Core Intermed. Goods 3.8% --- CRBS Spot Commodities 5.9%.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 8

49 Crude Oil Prices 1 Current US$/Barrel Spot Price Dec-17 8 Futures Price Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil. Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg 9

50 TIPS Inflation Compensation 3.5 Percent Year 5 Years Ahead December 1st 5-Year Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics 5

51 Federal Reserve System Assets 5, $, Billions,5, Agency Debt: $ Total: $,83 Miscellaneous: $57 3,5 Agency MBS: $1,77 3,,5, Agency Debt: $87 Total: $,85 Miscellaneous: $8 Agency MBS: $8 1,5 1, 5 Treasury Securities: $1,5 Treasury Securities: $,5 9/1/1 1//17 Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 51

52 Monetary Policy Instruments 7. Percent Federal Funds Target Rate December 8th Primary Credit Rate Interest Rate Paid on Reserves Federal Funds Rate Target Range Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 5

53 Real Federal Funds Rate Percent November Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effect Fed Funds rate and the lagged year-over-year change in the core PCE price index. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 53

54 FOMC Statement November, 17 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments. Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/ to 1/ percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to percent inflation. Source: Board of Governors 5

55 Continued In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/ to 3/ percent. November, 17 Source: Board of Governors 55

56 Eurodollar Futures Percent December 11, 17.5 November 1, Source: CME Group via Bloomberg 5

57 Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate 5 Percent Longer run Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the September 17 meeting. Source: Board of Governors 57

58 Monetary Base 5 Current $, Billions 5 December th Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 58

59 M Month % Change October Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 59

60 Money Market Rates. Percent December 8th Primary Credit Rate IOER 3-Month LIBOR Federal Funds Rate Month T-Bill Fed Reverse Repo Rate on Treasuries Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg

61 Capital Market Rates Percent Corporate BBB Bond Rate 3-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate December 8th Corporate AAA Bond Rate 1-Year Treasury Bond Rate Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 1

62 Treasury Yield Curve.75 Percent October 3, 17 December 8, M Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 1 Yrs Time to Maturity Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

63 Risk Premium 8 Percent December 8th 1 1 Year Rolling Average Risk Premium Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 1-year Treasury. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 3

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