Economic Update and Outlook
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1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 18, 2010 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union
2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian economy and forecasts B.C. and Vancouver economic conditions and trends Forecast and summary
3 Large job losses during recession, private sector begins hiring in 2010 Persons - thousands 500 Change in Payroll Employment, U.S Total Private Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latest: Oct-10
4 High unemployment, excess labour supply Per cent of civilian labor force 20 U.S. Unemployment Rates Total Offical 5 0 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latest: Oct-10
5 U.S. headed for deflation? 5 4 U.S. Inflation Measures Percentage change year-over-year Core PPI Core CPI 0-1 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latest: Oct-10
6 Large expansion in monetary base - inflationary threat? Dollars - trillions U.S. Monetary Base and Excess Reserves Base Reserves Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Latest: Oct-10
7 High government debt level poses future risks to bond yields, currency U.S. Federal Government Total Public Debt Dollars - trillions Per cent of GDP Debt (L) Ratio (R) 2 Q1-90 Q1-94 Q1-98 Q1-02 Q1-06 Q1-10 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Latest: Q
8 Large China surpluses, little movement in exchange rate USD per China Yuan 0.00 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 China Current Account Balance, Bil. USD USD Broad Index 1997= Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 US Balance on Current Account, Billions Q1-00 Q1-03 Q1-06 Q1-09 Source: US Federal Reserve, IMF.
9 U.S. households in poor financial condition; rebuilding balance sheet Per cent of disposable personal income 700 Net Worth 140 Debt Per cent of disposable personal income Q1-00 Q1-03 Q1-06 Q1-09 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. 80 Q1-00 Q1-03 Q1-06 Q1-09 Latest: Q2-10
10 U.S. personal income edging upward Dollars - trillions Total Income Current $ 2005 $ 10.0 Jan-05 Jul-07 Jan-10 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Latest: Sep-10 Dollars - trillions Private Income Current $ 2005 $ 8.5 Jan-05 Jul-07 Jan-10 Note: Seasonally adjusted at annual rate
11 Upshift in U.S. personal savings rate, consumption gradually expanding Dollars - trillions saar Consumption Current $ 2005 $ 8 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Percent of disposable personal income Savings Rate 0 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Latest: Sep-10
12 Profitability returns to U.S. corporations Dollars - billions 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 U.S. Corporate Profits Before Tax 800 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Source: U.S. BEA. Note: Seasonally adjusted at annual rate Latest: Q2-10
13 Credit availability beginning to ease but remains tight Per cent Net Percentage of U.S. Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial & Industrial Loans Large & medium Small -40 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board. Latest: Q4-10
14 Indicators point to slowdown, not recession in near term U.S. Weekly Leading Index U.S. Risk of Recession 1992= Jan-07 8-Aug Mar-10 Source: ECRI. Latest: 5-Nov-10 Per cent Jan-97 Feb-01 Mar-05 Apr-09 Source: Moody's Economy.com. Sep-10
15 Economic growth slowdown ends in U.S. Economic Performance and Forecast to Q Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 4 0 High Median Low -4 forecast -8 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Source: U.S. BEA, WSJ November 2010 Survey. Latest actual: Q3-10
16 U.S. economy seen growing above 3% in 2012 and 2013 Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP U.S. Economic Performance and Forecast to forecast Source: U.S. BEA, Consensus Forecasts October Latest actual: 2009
17 High economic growth rates in Asia, excluding Japan Economic Performance and Forecast, Selected Asian Economies Percentage change in real GDP China N.I. Asia Japan forecast Source: IMF WEO October Latest actual: 2009
18 Canada's labour market recovers, hours worked held down by part-time employment Persons - millions Total Employment, Canada 16.6 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada Hours - millions Actual Hours Worked, Canada 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Oct-10
19 Inflation rate below Bank of Canada's target 4 3 Canada's Inflation Measures Percentage change year-over-year CPI Core CPI -1-2 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Sep-10
20 Slowdown forecast for rest of 2010, moderate growth in 2011 Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 8 Canada's Economic Performance and Forecasts 4 0 Consensus BoC C1CU -4 forecast -8 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Reuters, C1CU. Latest actual: Q2-10
21 Bank of Canada's pause ends in April, modestly higher rates to end of 2012 Interest Rate Forecasts, Quarterly Per cent forecast 5y Mort Prime 5y GIC Target 0 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU. Note: Averages. Latest actual: Q3-10
22 Higher Canadian dollar expected Exchange Rate Forecasts, Quarterly, Canada USD per CAD forecast 0.70 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 C1CU BMO CIBC RBC Scotia TD Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU Survey. Latest actual: Q3-10
23 Employment growth pauses, unemployment edging down B.C. Labour Market, Monthly Persons - millions Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Per cent Employment (L) U. rate (R) Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-10
24 Resurgence in Metro Vancouver employment, rest of B.C. slipping this year Employment Trends, Vancouver CMA and Rest of B.C. 2007= Vancouver Rest Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-10
25 Moderate recovery in international goods exports Dollars - billions 3.5 B.C. International Merchandise Exports Current $ 2002 $ Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Sep-10
26 Geographic export diversification; growing export share to China, Korea, and others B.C. Merchandise Export Shares to Pacific Rim Per cent of total Japan Rest of Pacific Rim * Source: Statistics Canada, BC Stats. *Jan-Sep 2010
27 Olympic spike, return to prior levels Persons - thousands B.C. International Tourist Entries 300 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Aug-10
28 Retail sales spending flat in 2010 Dollars - billions B.C. Retail Sales Current $ 2002 $ Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-10
29 Office employment climbing Persons - thousands Office Employment Proxy, Lower Mainland Actual Trend Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: Sep-10 Note: Finance, insurance, real estate, professional, scientific, technical, management, administration, support, government.
30 Trade employment turns up Retail and Wholesale Trade Employment, Lower Mainland Persons - thousands Actual Trend Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: Sep-10
31 New business formations sliding lower this year Number 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1, Business Incorporations, Lower Mainland 600 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: BC Ministry of Finance. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Jul-10
32 Declining business bankruptcies Number Business Bankrupcies, B.C Actual Trend 10 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: OSB Canada, Statistics Canada. Latest: Aug-10
33 Metro Vancouver: investment spending at low levels Dollars - millions Commercial Construction Current $ 2002 $ 200 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Q3-10 Dollars - millions Industrial Construction Current $ 2002 $ 10 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Note: Seasonally adjusted
34 Population growth held up during recession Percent change at annual rate 2.0 B.C. Population Growth Rate, Quarterly Q1-02 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest Q2-10
35 Interprovincial migration remains positive Net Migration by Type, Quarterly, B.C. Persons - thousands 10 5 Net international Net interprovincial 0-5 Q1-02 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q2-10
36 Housing sales up last three months MLS Residential Sales, Lower Mainland Units - thousands Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Actual Seas. adj. Source: CREA, C1CU. Latest: Oct-10
37 Housing prices turning higher 2001= MLS Housing Price Index, Lower Mainland 200 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: REBGV, C1CU. Note: Based on seasonally adjusted price. Latest: Oct-10
38 Ratio at record highs -- bubble trouble? Ratio Housing Price - Income Ratio, Lower Mainland Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, C1CU.
39 Speculation not a significant force in current market, unlike in 1981 and 1989 A Speculation Measure: Holding Period of Sales, Lower Mainland Per cent of total months or less 1-month or less Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Source: Landcor Data Corp. Based on market transactions. Latest: Sep-10
40 Moderate growth in 2011 Indicator f 2011f Real GDP, % change Nominal GDP, % change Personal income, % change Employment, % change Unemployment rate, % Corporate profits, % change Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU forecast. B.C. Economic Outlook
41 Housing sales rebound in 2011 B.C. Economic Outlook Indicator f 2011f Population growth, % change CPI, % change Retail sales, % change Housing sales, % change Housing prices, % change Housing starts, % change Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC, C1CU forecast.
42
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