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1 Robert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Miami-Dade County Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 1

2 Local economic indicators showing positive momentum in the 1st quarter, but some indicators showing signs of a slowdown in growth pace. Unemployment rates continues to fall as employment increasing faster than labor force growth. Payroll jobs also increasing but at a slower rates since January Existing home sales have continued to grow steadily even though prices have not yet begun a consistent rebound Completed residential foreclosure are up, but initial filings are down. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 2

3 Commercial real estate (excluding Office) showing strength (vacancy rates down, lease rates up) Taxable sales are higher with total sales (SA) growing to $3.4 billion in March (+7.2% y/y). Value of int l trade grew 12% y/y, but pace of growth slowed in the 1 st quarter Domestic and international passenger arrivals have been growing at MIA (y/y and m/m) Overnight visitors rising, hotel occupancy is strong, room rates substantially higher recently. National and global factors suggest not much likelihood for significant acceleration of growth in 2 nd half of 2012 Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 3

4 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment (In Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted) Labor Force Unemployment Rate (right axis) 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Initial Unemployment Claims (Per 1,000 Workers in the Labor Force) 1,100 1,050 1, Employed 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% BROWARD REST OF FLORIDA PALM BEACH MIAMI-DADE Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Data Source: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, EDIT. April 2012 unemployment 9.6% vs. 12.1% one year ago. Unemployment rates have been falling even as the labor force has been growing. Employed residents higher by 69,000; unemployed lower by 28,500 in 12 months ending in April Initial unemployment claims on negative trend until Dec 2011, but flat since in 1Q. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 4

5 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Payroll Employment (SA) Data Source: US BLS Total Nonfarm ('000s) 1,006 1,007 1, , ,017 1,012 1,014 1, ,013 Yr-over-Yr Employment Chg ('000s) 1,018 1, Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp.-Wrhsg-Util. Information Financial Activities Prof./Bus. Serv. Educ./Health Serv. Miami-Dade Payroll Employment % Change April 2012 over April 2011 Leisure/Hosp. Other Serv. Total Govt -13.3% -2.2% -0.8% -1.5% -1.3% 0.3% 2.9% 1.2% 3.1% 1.1% 6.3% 5.4% Total Non-farm 1.6% Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEDIT. April 2012 payroll employment up 16,200 (+1.6%) vs. last year. Bad weather in April mostly responsible for 7% (2,100) decline in construction jobs compared to March. Manufacturing job losses have practically stopped since December Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 5

6 Change in Employment by Gender % Change in Employment by Gender 62,695 79, % 16.2% 25, % -93,839-54,337 Males Females -31,144 Chg Chg Chg * Data Source: Current Population Survey.* 2012 data is the average of the 12 months ending in March. All other years average the 12 months ending in December % -9.6% Males Females -4.8% Chg Chg Chg * Data Source: Current Population Survey.* 2012 data is the average of the 12 months ending in March. All other years average the 12 months ending in December. Men lost more jobs than women during the recession in relative and absolute terms. Women gained more jobs than men during the recovery. The average employment among women in 12 mo. ending in March was 5% higher than in Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 6

7 Miami-Dade U.S. Miami-Dade U.S. Miami-Dade U.S. Miami-Dade U.S. Unemployment Rates by Race & Ethnicity 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Unemployment Rates MDC US Total 9.8% 8.2% Black 16.1% 14.3% Hispanics 9.9% 10.4% White, NH 4.8% 6.7% Total Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black - Any Ethnicity Data Source: U.S. Census Current Population Survey. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 7

8 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Miami-Dade Unemployment Rate by Age, Race and Ethnicity Hispanic White - Non Hispanic Black - Any Ethnicity U.S Unemployment Rates Among Age Between: Black Hispanic White, NH 16 and % 12.1% 22.7% 25 and % 9.6% 5.4% 45 and % 11.2% 6.8% Between 16 and 24 Between 25 and 44 Between 45 and 64 Data Source: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 8

9 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 (Price, '000s) Residential Units (Price, '000s) Residential Units Single Family Home Sales Median Price & Seasonally Adj. Sales Condominium Sales Median Price & Seasonally Adj. Sales $300 1,000 $160 Median Price 2,000 $ $120 1,600 Sales 1,200 $ $ $150 Median Price 400 $40 Sales 400 $ $0 0 Data Source: Miami Assoc. of Realtors. Data Source: Miami Assoc. of Realtors. Sales of existing SF homes better than ; prices are steady; volume up slightly. Condo prices on positive trend; sales volume much higher than ; prices steady. Access to credit getting better with help of federal programs Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 9

10 2007:1Q 2007:2Q 2007:3Q 2007:4Q 2008:1Q 2008:2Q 2008:3Q 2008:4Q 2009:1Q 2009:2Q 2009:3Q 2009:4Q 2010:1Q 2010:2Q 2010:3Q 2010:4Q 2011:1Q 2011:2Q 2011:3Q 2011:4Q 2012:1Q Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr FHFA Housing Price Index 1st Quarter 2000 = 100 4,000 Miami-Dade Monthly Foreclosures Filings and REO's (completions) Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Florida 3,000 Total Filings REO's - RealtyTrac 200 2, , Data Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Data Sources: Miami-Dade Clerk of Courts, RealtyTrac. Fed. Housing Finance Agency index of same sales (SF and condos) and refinances. Existing home sale prices stabilized. Completed foreclosures (REOs) are flat, except for Feb, but initial filings may be high for some months. Average time from initial filing to REO is about 12 months. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 10

11 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:1Q 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:1Q 16% 14% Miami-Dade Commercial Vacancy Rates Office $35.00 $30.00 Miami-Dade Commercial Lease Rates (per SF) Office 12% $25.00 Retail (Not in Centers) 10% 8% Industrial $20.00 Retail (In Centers) 6% 4% Retail (In Centers) $15.00 $10.00 Industrial 2% Retail (Not in Centers) $5.00 Data Source: CoStar Group Vacancy rates 1Q12 vs 1Q11: Office, 14.1 (14.5); Ind., 7.1 (8.1); Retail-C, 4.6 (5.2); Retail-NC, 3.4 (3.8). Lease rates 1Q12 vs 1Q13: Office, 2%; Ind., +9%; Retail-C, +9%; Retail-NC, +13% Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 11

12 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 3,500 3,400 Miami-Dade Taxable Sales Seasonally Adjusted, Million $ 1,600 1,400 Miami-Dade County Taxable Sales Seasonally Adjusted, Million $ 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 1,200 1, Auto & Accessories Consumer Goods Bus. Investment Tourism & Recreation Bldg Investment 2,700 2,600 2,500 Taxable Sales, SA non-linear trend Data Source: FL Office of Econ. and Demog. Research Taxable sales very near pre-recession peak. Consumer goods, autos & accessories, tourism & recreation above their pre-recession peaks. Building and business investment not much above recession lows. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 12

13 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Consumers Bankruptcy Filings: Miami-Dade Consumer (Left Axis) Business (Rt Axis) Source: U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 13

14 $0.9 M $0.8 M $0.9 M $0.9 M $1.2 M $0.9 M $1.2 M $1.2 M $1.3 M $1.3 M Overnight Visitors to Miami-Dade County (in Thousands) Domestic Visitors Data Source: Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau. International Visitors Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 14

15 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Data Source: USA Trade Online. Miami-Dade Trade by World Region (Billions of U.S. Dollars) South America Caribbean Europe, Asia & All Other Regions Central America Int l trade supported local economy during depth of US recession Imports and exports helped maintain the transport sector Economic support from trade partners is waning. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 15

16 U.S. economy had a strong 4 th quarter, but pace of growth slowed in the 1 st quarter. UK is in recession as are many European economies. Economic growth in Germany and France are stalling and may fall into recession. China s growth rate is slowing (real estate bubble, inflation) Fed can t do much more to stimulate economy. Fiscal policy is hamstrung by gridlock. Threat of debt ceiling fight. Economic environment is becoming less conducive to new hiring and business investment for expansion. Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 16