AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

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1 AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y in November, primarily due to slower annual increases in food prices. The Philippines consumer price inflation climbed to its highest level in years in December at.6% y-o-y, up from.% y-o-y in November on increased demand during the holiday season. Inflation in the Philippines averaged.8% y-o-y in 6. In Thailand, inflation rose to.% y-o-y in December from.6% y-o-y in November, bringing annual average headline inflation for 6 to.% y-o-y. Food and nonalcoholic beverages remained the main driver of inflation, while vehicles and vehicle operation costs also contributed given higher oil prices. Advance estimates show that Singapore s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rose to.8% y-o-y in the fourth quarter of 6 from.% y-o-y in the previous quarter, driven by higher growth in the manufacturing sector. On a quarter-on-quarter and seasonally adjusted annualized basis, GDP expanded 9.% in the fourth quarter of 6, reversing the.9% dip in third quarter of 6. Singapore s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index maintained an above- reading for the fourth consecutive month at.6 in December, up from. in November. The Republic of Korea s current account surplus widened to USD9. billion in November from USD8.7 billion in October, primarily due to the rise in the goods account surplus. Malaysia s exports increased 7.8% y-o-y in November to MYR7.8 billion, reversing an 8.6% y-o-y decline in October. Imports increased.% y-o-y in November to MYR6.8 billion, also reversing a decline of 6.6% y-o-y in October. Malaysia had a MYR9. billion trade surplus in November, down from MYR9.8 billion in the previous month. Foreign reserves in Malaysia fell to USD9.6 billion at the end of December from USD96. billion at the end of November. The end-december level was also lower than the USD9. billion registered at the end of December. According to Bank Negara Malaysia, foreign reserves are supported by foreign direct investment inflows and the current account surplus, and are offset by foreign portfolio outflows and direct investment abroad by Malaysian companies. Hong Kong, China s retail sales decreased.% y-o-y in November after declining.9% y- o-y in October. Total retail sales in January November 6 were down 8.6% y-o-y to Asia Bond Monitor November 6 read more -Year Selected LCY Government Security Yields Close of 6 January 7 basis point change from Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* Previous Week* -Jan-7* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of.... Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Selected Government Security Yields Benchmark Yield Curves - Local Currency Government Bonds -versus- Yield Spread Chart Policy Rate versus Charts Credit Default Swap Spreads & Exchange Rate Indexes Selected Debt Security Issuances Selected Asia Data Releases HKD9. billion compared with HKD. billion for the same period in. Upcoming data releases this week include consumer price inflation data for the People s Republic of China; trade data for the People s Republic of China, Japan, and the Philippines; current account data for Japan; and overseas remittance data for the Philippines. In addition, a monetary policy meeting will be held by the Bank of Korea. Local currency government bond yields fell for most tenors in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. On the other hand, yield movements in the People s Republic of China, Hong Kong, China, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore are mixed. Yield spreads between the -year and -year tenors widened in all markets except for Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam.....

2 ..... Summary Text of News Articles Consumer Price Inflation Eases in Indonesia in December; December Inflation Hits.6% y-o-y in the Philippines; Consumer Price Inflation in Thailand Rises to.% y-o-y in December Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y in November, primarily due to slower annual increases in food prices. Core inflation, which excludes administered prices and volatile components, was unchanged from the previous month at.% y-o-y. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, consumer prices rose.% in December. December consumer price inflation in the Philippines rose to.6% y-o-y, its fastest pace in years, from.% y-o-y in November. The increase was due to holiday-season demand, mainly from food and nonalcoholic beverages, transport, and recreation and culture. The December figure brought the annual average inflation rate for 6 to.8% y-o-y, up from.% y-o-y in but still below the government s target range of.%.%. Consumer price inflation in Thailand rose.% y-o-y in December after rising.6% y-o-y in November, bringing annual average headline inflation for 6 to.% y-o-y. Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the main driver of rising inflation, while vehicles and vehicle operation costs also contributed given higher oil prices. On a m-o-m basis, inflation rose.% in December after a slight dip of.% in November. For inflation trends in Indonesia, refer to this link: For inflation trends in the Philippines, refer to this link: For inflation trends in Thailand, refer to this link: Singapore s Q 6 GDP Expands.8% y-o-y; Singapore s Manufacturing PMI at.6 in December Based on advance estimates of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter (Q) of 6 rose to.8% y-o-y from.% y-o-y in the previous quarter. The rise reflects an expansion in the manufacturing sector where output rose 6.% y-o-y in Q 6, led by the electronics and biomedical sectors, after increasing.7% y-o-y in the third quarter of 6. On a quarter-on-quarter and seasonally adjusted annualized basis, GDP expanded 9.% in Q 6, reversing the.9% dip in the previous quarter. Singapore s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) maintained its above- reading for the fourth consecutive month at.6 in December, up from. in November. Improvement in factory output, inventories, new orders, and new exports all contributed to the expansion in December. The electronics sector PMI posted a reading of. in December, up from. in November. A PMI reading above indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, while a reading below indicates a generally contracting economy. The Republic of Korea s Current Account Surplus Widens in November; Malaysia s Trade Surplus Narrows in December The Republic of Korea s current account surplus widened to USD9. billion in November from USD8.7 billion in October, primarily due to a rise in the goods account surplus to USD. billion from USD9.8 billion in October. The services account deficit rose in November and the primary income surplus narrowed. The secondary income account deficit also narrowed in November. Malaysia s exports increased 7.8% y-o-y to MYR7.8 billion in November, reversing an 8.6% y-o-y decline in October. The increase was driven by higher exports of electrical and electronic products, palm oil and palm-based products, natural rubber, timber and timber-based products, and refined petroleum products. Malaysia s main export markets include Singapore, the People s Republic of China, the European Union, and Viet Nam. Imports increased.% y-o-y in November to MYR6.8 billion, also reversing a 6.6% y-o-y decline in October. Intermediate goods, which constituted

3 ..... Summary Text of News Articles The Republic of Korea s Current Account Surplus Widens in November; Malaysia s Trade Surplus Narrows in December (cont ).6% of total imports, increased.% y-o-y. The primary sources of Malaysia s imports are the People s Republic of China; Japan; Taipei,China; and Brazil. Malaysia had a MYR9. billion trade surplus in November, down from a MYR9.8 billion trade surplus in the previous month. Malaysia s Foreign Reserves Fall in December Foreign reserves in Malaysia fell to USD9.6 billion at the end of December from USD96. billion at the end of November. The end-december level was also lower than the USD9. billion in foreign reserves at the end of December. According to Bank Negara Malaysia, foreign reserves are supported by foreign direct investment inflows and the current account surplus, and are offset by foreign portfolio outflows and direct investment abroad by Malaysian companies. Malaysia s foreign reserves are sufficient to finance 8.8 months of retained imports and can cover. times the short-term external debt obligations. Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Slip in November Hong Kong, China s retail sales decreased.% y-o-y in November after declining.9% y-o-y in October. Total retail sales in November amounted to HKD6. billion, slightly down from HKD6. billion in October. The reduction in bigticket purchases by tourists contributed to the decline. Total retail sales from January November 6 decreased 8.6% y-o-y to HKD9. billion from HKD. billion for the same period in....

4 Selected Government Security Yields -Month Selected LCY Government Security Yields Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* -Jan-7* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China.... India Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand.... Close of 6 January 7 -Year Selected LCY Government Bond Yields Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* basis point change from Previous Week* -Jan-7* US EU Japan PRC Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Korea, Rep. of..... Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Close of 6 January 7 EU = European Union, LCY =local currency, PRC = People s Republic of China, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg, LP.

5 asianbondsonline.adb.org Benchmark Yield Curves LCY Government Bonds US EU Japan China, People s Rep. of. Hong Kong, China 9. Indonesia Korea, Republic of.9 Malaysia.8 Philippines Singapore.6 Thailand 8. Viet Nam EU = European Union, LCY = local currency US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg.

6 - versus - Year Yield Spread Chart US EU Japan China, People's Rep. of 6-Jan-7 -Dec-6 -Dec-6 Hong Kong, China Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam 7 7 basis points EU = European Union, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg LP. 6

7 Policy Rate versus China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Indonesia year Lending Rate.. HKMA Base Rate day Reverse Repo Rate.7. The PRC uses the -year lending rate as one of its policy rates. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains a Discount Window Base Rate. Bank Indonesia shifted its policy rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate effective 9 August 6. Source: Bloomberg, LP. Korea, Republic of Malaysia Philippines Overnight Reverse Repo Rate 7-day Repo Rate c Overnight Policy Rate The Bank of Korea shifted its policy rate from the overnight repurchase (repo) rate to the 7-day repo rate in March 8. Bank Negara Malaysia uses the overnight policy rate (OPR) as its policy rate. Bangko Sentral uses the Philippine overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate as one of its policy instruments. Thailand 8 Viet Nam -day Repo Rate 6... Refinancing Rate The Bank of Thailand replaced the -day repurchase rate with the -day repurchase rate in January 7 as its policy rate. The State Bank of Viet Nam uses a benchmark prime lending rate as its policy rate. 7

8 Mid spread in basis points asianbondsonline.adb.org Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate Indexes Credit Default Swap Spreads Senior -Year* China, People's Rep. of Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Jan- May- Sep- Feb- Jun- Oct- Mar- Jul- Dec- Apr-6 Aug-6 Jan-7 * In USD and based on sovereign bonds Source: Bloomberg Exchange Rate Indexes (vis-à-vis USD, January 7=) China, People's Rep. of Indonesia Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines 9 9 Thailand Singapore 8 8 Viet Nam Source: AsianBondsOnline calculations based on Bloomberg data. Jan- May- Sep- Feb- Jun- Oct- Mar- Jul- Dec- Apr-6 Aug-6 Jan-7 8

9 Selected Debt Security Issuances ( 6 January 7) Auction Average Coupon Amount Offered Amount Issued Markets Date Type of Security (%) (LCY billion) (LCY billion) CN -Jan -year Treasury Bonds year Treasury Bonds Jan 9-day Treasury Bills.7.. HK 9-day Exchange Fund Bills day Exchange Fund Bills.8.. ID -Jan -month Treasury Bills.9 6,. -year Treasury Bills 6.79.,. -year Treasury Bonds ,6. JP -Jan -month Treasury Discount Bills -.6,., year Japanese Government Bonds.6.,., Jan 6-month Treasury Discount Bills -.,.,99.96 KR -Jan 8-day Monetary Stabilization Bills year Korea Treasury Bonds.6.,7.,78. -Jan -year Korea Treasury Bonds.9.,.,76. 9-day Monetary Stabilization Bills.,.,. -Jan -year Monetary Stabilization Bonds.9,.,. MY -Jan -year Islamic Bonds SG -Jan 8-day MAS Bills day MAS Bills... TH -Jan 9-day Bank of Thailand Bills day Bank of Thailand Bills... 6-Jan -day Bank of Thailand Bills... VN -Jan -year Treasury Bonds 6.8,.,. LCY = local currency, MAS = Monetary Authority of Singapore. Sources: Local market sources and Bloomberg, LP. 9

10 Selected Asia Data Releases ( 6 January 7) Economy and Variable Release Date Historical Data Recent Trends People s Republic of China / /:.% Consumer price inflation in the People s Republic of China (PRC) rose.% year-onyear CPI /:.6% (y-o-y) in November after rising.% y-o-y in October. y-o-y, % /6:.% DEC /6:.% Philippines / /:.8% Exports from the Philippines increased.7% y-o-y in October, slow ing from.% Exports /:.% y-o-y grow th in September. y-o-y, % 9/6:.% NOV /6:.7% Philippines / /:,9. The Philippines trade deficit w idened to USD,6. million in October from Trade Balance /: 977. USD,89. million in September. USD million 9/6:,89. NOV /6:,6. Malaysia / /:.% Industrial production in Malaysia grew in October at a rate of.% y-o-y compared Industrial Production /:.% w ith.% y-o-y in September. y-o-y, % 9/6:.% NOV /6:.% Japan / /:,.8 Japan s current account surplus narrow ed to JPY.7 trillion in October from JPY.8 Current Account Balance /:,.9 trillion in September. JPY billion 9/6:,8. NOV /6:,79.9 Japan / /:. Japan s trade surplus narrow ed to JPY87.6 billion in October from JPY6. billion in Trade Balance /:. September. JPY billion 9/6: 6. NOV /6: 87.6 People s Republic of China / /: 7.% The PRC s exports fell at a slow er pace of.6% y-o-y in November after sliding 7.9% Exports /:.6% y-o-y in October. y-o-y, % /6: 7.9% DEC /6:.6% People s Republic of China / /:. The PRC posted a trade surplus amounting to USD. billion in November, dow n from Trade Balance /: 9.6 USD8.6 billion in October. USD billion /6: 8.6 DEC /6:. Republic of Korea / /:.% At its December monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Korea decided to maintain the Bank of Korea 7-Day Repo Rate /6:.% 7-day repo rate at.%. % /6:.% -Jan /6:.% Philippines /6 /:.% Overseas remittances to the Philippines decreased.% y-o-y in October, reversing a 6.7% y-o-y increase in September. Overseas Remittances /: 6.% y-o-y, % 9/6: 6.7% NOV /6:.% Source: AsianBondsOnline, Bloomberg LP, and Reuters.

11 News Articles: Sources for Further Reading Tip: Click on link to open a new browser (Acrobat Reader 8); for older versions right-click to open a new browser) Consumer Price Inflation Eases in Indonesia in December; December Inflation Hits.6% y-o-y in the Philippines; Consumer Price Inflation in Thailand Rises to.% y-o-y in December Indonesia Dec inflation eases slightly more than expected Business Times ( January 7) Summary Inflation Report Consumer Price Index (6=): December 6 Philippine Statistics Authority (6 January 7) Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index December 6 Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce ( January 7) Singapore s Q 6 GDP Expands.8% y-o-y; Singapore s Manufacturing PMI at.6 in December Singapore s GDP Grew by.8 Per Cent in the Fourth Quarter of 6 Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore ( January 7) December PMI posted a higher expansion reading to.6 Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management ( January 7) The Republic of Korea s Current Account Surplus Widens in November; Malaysia s Trade Surplus Narrows in December Balance of Payments during November 6 Bank of Korea ( January 7) Monthly External Trade Statistics November 6 Department of Statistics Malaysia (6 January 7) Malaysia s Foreign Reserves Fall in December Monthly External Trade Statistics November 6 Department of Statistics Malaysia (6 January 7) Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Slip in November Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales November 6 Census and Statistics Department ( January 7) Retail sales value down.% Hong Kong Information Services Department ( January 7) Disclaimer: AsianBondsOnline Newsletter is available to users free of charge. ADB provides no warranty or undertaking of any kind with respect to the information and materials found on, or linked to, the AsianBondsOnline Newsletter. ADB accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the material posted or linked to in the publication, or the information contained therein, or for any consequences arising from its use, and does not invite or accept reliance being placed on any material or information so provided. Views expressed in articles marked with AsianBondsOnline are those of the authors and not ADB. This disclaimer does not derogate from, and is in addition to, the general terms and conditions regarding the use of the AsianBondsOnline website, which also apply.

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