Economic Update and Outlook
|
|
- Myra Fisher
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 17, 2011 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union
2 2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian economy and forecasts B.C. and Vancouver economic conditions and trends Forecast and summary
3 Heightened market concerns on sovereign debt notably Greece, Italy problematic 3 10-year Govt. Bond Yields, Selected European Economies Per cent /4/10 8/9/10 3/14/11 10/14/11 Source: Bloomberg. Latest: 11/16/2011 Greece Portugal Ireland Italy Spain Germany
4 4 Higher financing needs in Italy, Spain, and others during Gross Financing Needs, Selected European Economies Per cent of GDP Greece Italy Belgium Portugal Spain Ireland Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor Sept
5 5 Global economic slowdown underway Balance of opinion (%) Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 30 Source: JP Morgan, Markit. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
6 Emerging and developing economies lead recovery, industrialized economies lag 6 World Industrial Production, Selected Economies 2008= China Developing World OECD 80 Source: World Bank. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
7 7 Government employment dropping, private sector expanding U.S. Private and Government Employment Trends 2007= Census hires Private Government 92 Jan-07 Source: U.S. BLS, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Oct-11
8 Current U.S. economic recovery tracking close to past weak employment recoveries Recoveries in U.S. Total Payroll Employment Cycle trough= Average Current Jobless Months from Trough = 0 Source: Central 1 Credit Union. Latest current: Oct-2011
9 Current U.S. economic recovery tracking close to past weak employment recoveries Recoveries in U.S. Private Payroll Employment Cycle trough= Average Current Jobless Months from Trough = 0 Source: Central 1 Credit Union. Latest current: Oct-2011
10 10 U.S. economy expanded in October 2007= U.S. Industrial Production 80 Jan-07 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Oct-11
11 11 ECRI issues recession call for U.S. economy 1992= U.S. Weekly Leading Economic Indicator Jan Feb Apr May Jul-11 Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute. Latest: 4-Nov-11
12 No recession forecast by economists, more sub-par growth in Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 5 U.S. Economic Growth 0-5 High Median Low Actual Forecast -10 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Source: U.S. BEA, WSJ November 2011 Survey. Latest actual: Q3-11
13 13 U.S. economy to grow above 3% after 2013 Per cent change in real GDP U.S. Long-term Economic Growth Actual Forecast Source: U.S. BEA, Consensus Forecasts. Latest actual: 2010
14 14 Canadian economy rebounds from May's temporary decline, above trend growth in July and August Dollars - trillions chained Canada Gross Domestic Product, All Industries 1.16 Source: Statistics Canada. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Latest: Aug-11
15 October employment down 54k, reversing most of 61k gain in September 15 Labour Market, Canada Persons - millions Per cent of labour force Employment U. Rate Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Oct-11
16 16 Temporary surge in headline CPI and core inflation Per cent change year-over-year 4 3 Inflation Measures, Canada CPI Core CPI -1-2 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Sep-11
17 17 Canada's growth to slow, no sign of recession 1992= Leading Economic Indicator, Canada 210 Source: Statistics Canada. Latest: Sep-11
18 18 GDP to rebound in Q3-2011, slow into 2012 and gain momentum in second half Percentage change at annual rate in real GDP 6 Canada's Economic Growth Actual Forecast -9 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Consensus BoC C1CU Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, C1CU. Latest actual: Q2-11
19 19 Low interest rates in 2012, Bank of Canada on hold until early 2013 Interest Rate Forecasts, Quarterly Per cent 8 6 Actual Forecast 5y mortgage Prime 4 5y GIC 2 Target 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU. Note: Averages. Latest actual: Q3-11
20 20 Mixed views on Canadian dollar near term, higher later in 2012 Exchange Rate Forecasts, Canada USD per CAD Actual Forecast 0.70 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 C1CU BMO CIBC RBC Scotia TD Source: Bank of Canada, C1CU survey. Latest actual: Q3-11
21 21 Population growth slowing, large downshift in B.C. Per cent change at annual rate 2.0 B.C. Population Growth, Quarterly Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Latest: Q2-11
22 One-off drop in net international migration, interprovincial migration turns negative 22 Persons - thousands B.C. Net Migration by Type, Quarterly 10 5 Net international Net interprovincial 0-5 Q1-03 Q1-05 Q1-07 Q1-09 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q2-11
23 Weak job growth in 2011, September job spike an outlier 23 B.C. Labour Market, Monthly Persons - millions Per cent of labour force Employment (L) U. rate (R) Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
24 Vancouver employment drives provincial gains, unlikely result in September (+44k) = Employment Trends, Vancouver CMA and Rest of B.C Vancouver Rest 95 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
25 25 Office Employment Proxy: Vancouver rising, Abbotsford not Persons - thousands Metro Vancouver 295 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Persons - thousands Abbotsford CMA 13 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct
26 Retail & Wholesale Trade Employment: Declining trend in Vancouver 26 Persons - thousands Metro Vancouver 170 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Persons - thousands Abbotsford CMA 12 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct
27 Business Incorporations: Mild revival from recession lows 27 Greater Vancouver RD Fraser Valley RD Thousands Number Actual Trend Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. 60 Actual Trend 40 Latest: Aug-11
28 28 Large gain in September, previously exports posting moderate gains Dollars - billions B.C. International Merchandise Exports Current $ 2002 $ Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Sep-11
29 29 Lower international tourist activity Persons - thousands B.C. International Tourist Entries 300 Source: Statistics Canada. Note: Seasonally adjusted Latest: Aug-11
30 Little growth in retail activity since early Dollars - billions B.C. Retail Sales Current $ 2002 $ Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
31 Metro Vancouver retail sales up less than 1% this year 31 Dollars - billions 2.4 Metro Vancouver Retail Sales Current $ 2002 $ 1.8 Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Aug-11
32 32 Metro Vancouver Non-residential Building Construction Investment Spending Dollars - millions Private Current $ 2002 $ 200 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada. Dollars - millions Public Current $ 2002 $ 100 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3
33 Abbotsford CMA Non-residential Building Construction Investment Spending 33 Dollars - millions Private Current $ 2002 $ 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Source: Statistics Canada. Dollars - millions Public Current $ 2002 $ 0 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Q3
34 Recent housing sales fairly stable at moderate levels 34 Units - thousands MLS Residential Sales, Lower Mainland 1 Source: REBGV. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
35 Lower Mainland Housing Prices: Average sales price can mis-represent underlying price trend 35 Dollars - thousands MLS Average Sale Price 450 Source: REBGV. Latest: Oct = Housing Price Index 200 Note: Seasonally adjusted.
36 36 Housing market supply-demand indicator points to further price easing MLS Residential Sales-to-active Listings Ratios by REB Per cent GV FV Source: REBGV, C1CU. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Latest: Oct-11
37 37 Moderate growth in 2012 B.C. Economic Outlook Indicator f 2012f Real GDP, % change Nominal GDP, % change Personal income, % change Employment, % change Unemployment rate, % Corporate profits, % change Source: Statistics Canada, C1CU forecast.
38 38 Housing market holds up, modest gains in 2012 B.C. Economic and Housing Outlook Indicator f 2012f Population growth, % change CPI, % change Retail sales, % change Housing sales*, % change Housing prices*, % change Housing starts, % change Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC, C1CU forecast. * MLS residential
Economic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 18, 2010 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian economy
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
More informationBritish Columbia Economic & Housing Update
British Columbia Economic & Housing Update Robyn Adamache Senior Market Analyst, CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Housing market intelligence you can count on Housing Market Information Portal
More informationGrowth, Rates, and Housing: Will B.C. s economy continue to outpace? Vancouver, BC May 1, 2018 Bryan Yu, Deputy Chief Economist
Growth, Rates, and Housing: Will B.C. s economy continue to outpace? Vancouver, BC May 1, 218 Bryan Yu, Deputy Chief Economist Topics Global Economic State Canadian Outlook and Interest Rate Trends B.C.
More information2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Be Sustained? U.S. Economic Outlook:
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH North American Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Be Sustained? Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers 11 Annual Conference Paul Ferley(1) 97-71 Assistant Chief Economist
More informationNew World Rising. Calgary Real Estate Forum. Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist. October 24, 2012
New World Rising Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist Calgary Real Estate Forum October 24, 212 Global Growth Has Lost Momentum Real GDP 12 1 8 annual % change 24-7 211e 212f 213f 6 4 2-2 China India
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More informationThe Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook Beata Caranci SVP & Chief Economist TD Economics September 217 Key Themes Synchronized global economic acceleration has put monetary policy normalization in focus Canada
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory
More informationAWF Economic Update. What to Expect in 2014: Forecast for BC Businesses and Outlook for the Global Economy Sponsored by: Jill Leversage
AWF Economic Update What to Expect in 2014: Forecast for BC Businesses and Outlook for the Global Economy Sponsored by: Jim Allworth Jill Leversage Jock Finlayson AWF Economic Update What to Expect in
More informationExecutive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011
Executive Board Meeting September Global economic growth GDP growth. Four-quarter change. Q Q - US Euro area Emerging economies¹) Emerging Asian economies¹) - - - 8 ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession
North American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (1) 97-731 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com November 17, 9 U.S. Economic
More informationWindsor Housing Market Overview
Windsor Housing Market Overview 16 May 2018 Andrew Scott Senior Analyst, Economics Report Card Tailwinds Healthy labour market Increased migration Strong US and Global growth Interesting Cooling existing
More informationBC ECONOMIC BACK DROP AND DEMOGRAPHICS
SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 BC ECONOMIC BACK DROP AND DEMOGRAPHICS PRESENTED TO THE BC FINANCIAL HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS SOCIETY CONFERENCE KEN PEACOCK Chief Economist and Vice President 2016: SHAPING UP TO BE
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationOntario Economic Accounts
SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 April, May, June Ontario Economic Accounts ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE Table of Contents ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Highlights 1 Ontario s Economy Continues to Grow Expenditure Details 2
More informationCanadian Housing Market Trends Bob Dugan, Chief Economist September 2018 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Canadian Housing Market Trends Bob Dugan, Chief Economist September 218 Housing Market Assessment (HMA) Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High Key Insight: For the eighth consecutive quarter, the HMA
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationU.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
More informationCanada s Economy Strengthens
Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist Dominion Lending Centres The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Canada s Economy Strengthens Today s date Location of presentation June
More informationIMBA CONFERENCE April 2011
Economic & Real Estate Outlook IMBA CONFERENCE April 2011 TED TSIAKOPOULOS Regional Economist CMHC ttsiakop@cmhc.ca Housing market intelligence you can count on AGENDA Key Insights for 2011/12 Housing
More informationAlberta's Economic Outlook
Alberta's Economic Outlook Catherine Rothrock Chief Economist & Executive Director Alberta Treasury Board and Finance December 6, 218 Solid growth in second year of recovery, differentials weigh on 219
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationProvince of Alberta Fort McMurray Investor Meetings
Province of Alberta Fort McMurray Investor Meetings September, 217 Catherine Rothrock Chief Economist & Executive Director, Treasury Board and Finance and Tim Pierce Director Financing Capital Markets,
More informationTurning Japanese? May 2016
Turning Japanese? May 216 Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director, CIBC Turning Japanese? Bond Buyers Really Think So 1 4 Japan 1Y Bond Yield (%) 6 1Y Bond Yield (%) 3 2 5 4 3 1 2-1 Mar-95
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH North American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (416) 974-7231 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com
More informationHow to Fix The Canadian Recession
How to Fix The Canadian Recession CFA Québec January 22, 2009 Glen Hodgson Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist hodgson@conferenceboard.ca Global Economic Highlights The world economy expanded by
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationIndustry Trends Watch
Costing Trends - Alberta Asphalt Cement (Edmonton Rack $C/t) The Edmonton rack price for asphalt cement surged to $730 per tonne in early May. The rack price index averaged $655 per tonne in April and
More informationAFTERSHOCKS. Benjamin Tal, Managing Director, Deputy-Chief Economist CIBC World Markets Inc. Will Investment in Renewable Energy Follow Oil Prices?
, Managing Director, Deputy-Chief Economist CIBC World Markets Inc 67 th Annual Tax Conference 67e Conférence fiscale annuelle 2 Will Investment in Renewable Energy Follow Oil Prices? Source: UNEB, CIBC
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationIndustry Trends Watch
Costing Trends - Alberta Asphalt Cement (Edmonton Rack $C/t) The Edmonton rack price for asphalt cement averaged $730 per tonne in May, compared with $655 in April. In May of last year, the rack price
More informationMonetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationSHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE
SHAMBLING FORWARD. WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE Shamble: To walk in an awkward, lazy, or unsteady manner, shuffling the feet FEBRUARY 12, 2014 David B. Hanson, CPA, CFA
More informationEmerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies
Emerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies Sam Chapman Associate Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily
More informationEconomic Outlook May 2017
Economic Outlook May 2017 Derek Burleton VP & Deputy Chief Economist TD Economics Key Questions Global Economy 1. Does the global economic upswing have further room to run? 2. What are the imminent risks
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationWait Until Next Year By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
Wait Until Next Year By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director January 213 Tough Times for The Global Economy 2 World GDP Growth: No Pick-up Till 214 12 % chg 1 8 6 4 2-2 21A 211A 212E 213E
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationJump-Starting Canadian Growth. Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 2016
Jump-Starting Canadian Growth Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 216 Persistent Headwinds To Stronger Global Growth Insufficient Aggregate Demand Reinforced By Structural And Cyclical Factors
More informationHousing Bulletin Monthly Report
March 211 1 Housing Bulletin Monthly Report Alberta s preliminary housing starts increased month-over-month in February 211 Canada Housing Starts 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, FEB 9 MAR 9 Preliminary Housing Starts
More informationEconomic Outlook: What s ahead in 2018?
Economic Outlook: What s ahead in 2018? Pierre Cléroux, Vice President Research and Chief Economist, BDC Shelburne April 18 th, 2018 Agenda 1 2 3 World economic outlook Ontario economic outlook What to
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More information2012 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad
N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H 212 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad December 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312..15 plk1@ntrs.com
More informationUK Economic Outlook March 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects Consumer spending prospects after Brexit Will robots steal our jobs? 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly
More informationThe Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director May 211 Global Growth Shy of Pre-Recession Pace 6 Annual Global Real GDP growth 5 5% 4 3 2 4 yrs before recession
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationMERCER S 2016 COMPENSATION PLANNING SEMINAR
HEALTH WEALTH CAREER MERCER S 2016 COMPENSATION PLANNING SEMINAR DOING MORE WITH LESS SEPTEMBER 2015 Vancouver TODAY S PRESENTERS HELMUT PASTRICK AILSA FORSGREN GRAHAM DODD MERCER 2015 1 TODAY S DISCUSSION
More informationInflation Report. July September 2012
July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate
More informationEconomic Outlook. Presented to IPMA Executive Seminar. Steve Lerch Chief Economist & Executive Director. September 25, 2012 Chelan, Washington
Presented to IPMA Executive Seminar Steve Lerch Chief Economist & Executive Director Chelan, Washington WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL Summary The updated economic forecast is very
More informationCanada In a Messy World By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
Canada In a Messy World By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director November 2011 Canadian Growth Resumes After Disruptions in Autos and Energy 108 Monthly GDP Index 107 106 105 104 103 102
More informationProvince of British Columbia
Province of British Columbia CALIFORNIA December 2017 Ministry of Finance Website: http://www.gov.bc.ca/ The Compelling Canada Story One of only two G-7 country to receive AAA credit rating One of the
More informationEconomic Indicators December 2017
Economic Indicators December 2017 General Economy GDP % Change U.S. GDP Growth First two consecutive quarters over 3% in 3 years 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Last 3 quarters: 3Q17: 3.2% 2Q17:
More informationOutlook for the Texas Economy. Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016
Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016 Research Economist Texas Society of Architects Contents 1. U.S. Economic Outlook 2. Texas Economic Outlook 3. Challenges and
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationOutlook 2015: Europe & Germany
Part of the M&G Group Outlook 215: Europe & Germany Research presentation 27 th November 214 European Economic Fundamentals Update & Outlook 2 Economic recovery broadening GDP growth by country Q3 214
More informationEconomic Outlook
2013-2014 Economic Outlook Published by: Department of Finance Province of New Brunswick P.O. Box 6000 Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5H1 Canada Internet: www.gnb.ca/0024/index-e.asp March 26, 2013 Cover:
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationOntario Economic Overview: International and National Context and Fiscal Implications
Ontario Economic Overview: International and National Context and Fiscal Implications Livio Di Matteo, Economics, Lakehead University Presentation for OCSBOA/OCSTA Seminar, Valhalla Inn, Thunder Bay, April
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationThe Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2015
April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in
More informationIntroduction to the UK Economy
Introduction to the UK Economy What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment
More informationTURNING THE CORNER. Glenn Hutchins July Glenn Hutchins All rights reserved.
Glenn Hutchins July 15 Glenn Hutchins 15. All rights reserved. The Worst Economic Recovery in History Recoveries from Worst Recessions Note: Annual GDP Growth for the years subsequent to each recession
More informationProvince of Manitoba Steady. Balanced. Building Manitoba s Future. Mid-Year Report CONTENTS. Economic Performance and Outlook
Province of Manitoba Steady. Balanced. Building Manitoba s Future Mid-Year Report CONTENTS Economic Performance and Outlook INTRODUCTION Manitoba s economy is forecast to contract by.2% in 29, the first
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationA statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area
A statistical overview of the economic situation in the euro area By Gian Luigi Mazzi Florence, 29 April 2016 EUI-nomics 2016 Outline Latest PEEIs figures GDP growth estimates for the first quarter 2016
More informationNova Scotia/Canada Economic Indicators. August 2006 (September 19, 2006)
Nova Scotia/Canada Economic Indicators August 2006 (September 19, 2006) Notes: (1) Statistics Canada estimate July 1 (2) Annual average a Actual sa Seasonally adjusted p Preliminary pa Preliminary actual
More informationVOLUME 2. calgary.ca/economy call Calgary and Region Economic Outlook Q3 2010
A Q3 21 VOLUME 2 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 21-22 calgary.ca/economy call 3-1-1 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 21-22 Q3 21 Introduction i Introduction The City of Calgary monitors the local
More informationFall Update The Current Global Economic Environment
The Current Global Economic Environment 2010 has been a turbulent year for the global economy, requiring the ongoing scrutiny and, at times, the undivided attention of global leaders, policy makers and
More informationSingle-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
More informationChapter 1 International economy
Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationProvince of British Columbia
Province of British Columbia CALIFORNIA October 2017 Ministry of Finance Website: http://www.gov.bc.ca/ Quick Facts on British Columbia 4.8 million population 364,764 sq. mi on west coast of Canada; third-largest
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationMonthly Labour Force Survey Statistics December 2018
800 Monthly Labour Force Survey Statistics CALGARY CMA Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally
More informationMonthly Labour Force Survey Statistics November 2018
800 Monthly Labour Force Survey Statistics CALGARY CMA Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on 2011 census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally
More informationInflation Report. April June 2013
April June 2013 August 7, 2013 1 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationCaLGaRy S EConomiC EdGE
CaLGaRy S EConomiC EdGE CREB 2012 calgary housing market forecast update August 15, 2012 www.creb.com CREB 300 Manning Road NE Calgary, Alberta T2E 8K4, Canada Phone: 403.263.0530 Fax: 403.218.3688 Email:
More informationEconomic outlook: Manitoba in the middle
Economic outlook: Manitoba in the middle May 17, 2016 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationThe Economic & Financial Outlook
The Economic & Financial Outlook Craig Alexander Senior Vice President & Chief Economist March 14 NO BOOM, BUT GLOBAL ECONOMY TO GAIN A STEP 6 5 Annual contribution to world GDP growth, % 4 3 1-1 - Developing
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
16/10/2012 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Inflation through September 2013 CPI (average annual rate) Inflation through
More informationEconomic Analysis of Ontario
Volume 8 Issue 3 August 2017 ISSN: 0834-3980 Ontario Housing Outlook 2017-2019 Highlights Policy-driven declines in home sales and prices to bottom in H2 2017, recovery trend modest Greater Golden Horseshoe
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationThe relatively slow growth of employment has
NationalEconomicTrends August Please go to researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net for important information about your subscription Labor s Share The relatively slow growth of employment has been a prominent
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationTransitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion
Transitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion AUGUSTINE FAUCHER, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMICS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM The Great Recession Is Over Recessions since World War II Peak Trough
More informationThe Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI North American Conference 5 October, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. USA Steady Growth 3. Europe Growing Slowly 4. China
More informationPotential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationKSGFOA 2017 Fall Conference
An Economic Outlook: Changing Times and What It Means for Your Organization PRESENTATION TO KSGFOA 2017 Fall Conference October 13, 2017 PRESENTER: Sheryl D. Bailey, Ph.D. Senior Vice President Roadmap
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More information