New World Rising. Calgary Real Estate Forum. Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist. October 24, 2012
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1 New World Rising Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist Calgary Real Estate Forum October 24, 212
2 Global Growth Has Lost Momentum Real GDP annual % change e 212f 213f China India Brazil Mexico Euro zone Source: Bloomberg, BEA, Statistics, Eurostat, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 1 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
3 Developed Nations Hit by Economic, Fiscal & Financial Headwinds Employment Growth Consumer Spending 6 y/y % change 6 y/y % change 4 Alberta Euro zone U.K. Euro zone U.K Source: Statistics, BEA, Eurostat, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 2 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
4 European Debt Concerns Will Continue to Fuel Market Volatility General Government Gross Debt e, % of GDP Unemployment Rate - Under 25 Years of Age 6 % Spain Greece Italy 6 2 Portugal Germany Greece Italy Portugal Spain Germany Source: IMF, Eurostat, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 3 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
5 Financial Strains Still Intense in Much Less So in Mortgage Delinquencies 6 % of total loans past due by three or more months Looking Forward 2 Federal forecast Aggregate Provincial Source: CBA, MBA, CMHC, Census Bureau, Scotia Economics budget balances % of GDP Federal ex. Social Security Fiscal year-ends: federal Sept. 3, March FY Source: BEA, Statistics, Budget documents; Nominal GDP and federal forecasts: Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 4 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
6 Our Fiscal Fix Cut Spending & Taxes, Boosting Competitiveness Total Spending 26 % of GDP 24 Total Revenue 22 % of GDP Source: Department of Finance, OMB, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 5 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
7 Emerging Markets are Driving Global Growth... Global GDP (PPP) Commodities Prices % of global GDP, 212e 45 4 prices, index:24q1=1 Gold Middle East & Africa Other European Union WTI Oil Rest Of Asia & 2 India 15 Wheat China 1 Latin America & The Caribbean 5 NYMEX Natural Gas * 21 IMF forecast. Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Canadian Grain Commission, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 6 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
8 Have Significant Financial Resources Growth In Personal Disposable Income Foreign Exchange Reserves 25 index: 24=1 China 225 Japan China (Urban) Brazil India 15 Euro zone Euro zone U.K. 212 Q2, USD trillions Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 7 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
9 & Are Supported By Strong Domestic Demand Motor Vehicle Sales Housing Starts millions of units forecast 25 millions of starts, 211e 2 EU & Japan 2 16 North America* Brazil, Russia, India & China G7 China *Includes light trucks in North America. Source: Ward s Automotive, IMF, Bloomberg, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 8 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
10 Monetary Policies Remain Geared to Reviving Growth Consumer Price Inflation Central Bank Rates 6 y/y % change, year-end forecast 6 % forecast Euro zone Euro zone Source: Statistics, BLS, Bloomberg, Scotia Economics Source: Bank of, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 9 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
11 Loonie Strength, Weakness Hit Canadian Exports The Loonie Continues to Fly High Despite Weaker Trade Balances 125 WTI Oil US$/bbl CADUSD C$ billions, s.a. 1 Parity $1/bbl Commodities WTI Oil (LHS) Canadian Dollar (RHS) forecast Merchandise Trade Merchandise Trade ex. Commodities Source: Scotia Economics, Statistics, Bloomberg. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 1 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
12 Better Job Market Supports Canadian Household Spending Employment Motor Vehicle Sales 14 index: 24=1 forecast 14 index: 24=1 forecast Alberta 12 Alberta 12 Ontario 1 1 Ontario Source: Scotia Economics, Statistics, BLS, Global Insight. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 11 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
13 Non-Residential Construction Has Also Been More Buoyant Here Non-Residential Construction Office Vacancy Rates index: 24Q1=1 forecast 18 % Toronto Calgary Vancouver Source: Statistics, BEA, Eurostat, CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 12 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
14 Our Housing Market Has Been Driven by Strong Regional Fundamentals MLS Average House Prices, SA Regina 18 Nominal GDP Per Capita index: 24=1 forecast St. John's Edmonton Saskatoon Vancouver Newfoundland and Labrador Saskatchewan Calgary National 14 Sudbury Kitchener Toronto London Windsor cumulative % house price gain since Q Alberta B.C. Ontario f Source: CREA MLS, Statistics, CMHC, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 13 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
15 But A Correction From Record Levels Is Getting Underway Average House Prices Regina Toronto St. John s Winnipeg Saskatoon Halifax Kitchener Edmonton Calgary Victoria Vancouver % change from Mar-Sept 211 to Mar-Sept 212 Existing Home Sales Calgary St. John s Saskatoon Regina Edmonton Halifax Winnipeg Victoria Kitchener Toronto Vancouver % change from Mar-Sept 211 to Mar-Sept Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 14 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
16 Economic & Market Outlook * Annual averages. Source: Bloomberg, Scotia Economics. Forecasts at September 27, 212 Warren Jestin Page 15 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
17 Disclaimer TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. This report has been prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Warren Jestin Page 16 Calgary Real Estate Forum - October 24, 212
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