CAD OUTLOOK A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "CAD OUTLOOK A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l"

Transcription

1 CONFERENCE CALL Dial in: (local to Toronto) Passcode: # CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 to skip backwards 5 seconds; press 3 skip forward 5 seconds Press 4 to skip backwards 5 minutes; press 6 to skip forward 5 minutes Press 5 to pause the presentation press 5 again to resume CAD OUTLOOK A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM November 2013

2 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD performance is mixed REAL GDP US outperforms Canada f 2014f 2015f f 2014f 2015f USDCAD US CADUSD Canada AUDUSD Mexico EURUSD Euro Zone 1.3 (0.5) GBPUSD UK USDJPY Japan USDCNY China INFLATION Expected to remain contained INTEREST RATES Remain accomodative US Q413 Q414 Q415 Canada FED BoC COMMODITIES Yearly averages ECB Oil (WTI) BoE Gold 1,410 1,350 1,400 BoJ RBA

3 YEAR TO DATE: THE STORY FX RETURNS YEAR TO DATE AGAINST USD (up to Nov 15, 2013) % Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy FX MARKETS: THREE MAJOR THEMES Central bank policy diverging policy paths & spillover of G4 Global growth: 1) improving; 2) advanced vs emerging Politics: elections, leadership as well as geopolitical risks 2

4 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY INFLATION US: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER EUROPE: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy Inflation threat fails to materialize US, European, Canadian and others have inflation trending lower. Disinflation has major risks. Disinflation opens door to central policy response. 3

5 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY THE FED s DECISION NOT TO TAPER QE expect to be tapered in early 2014 o o o Goal build near term economic momentum by achieving an improvement in the labour force. Criteria Substantial improvement in labour market, interpreted as nonfarm gains +200k mth. QE not preset conditional on incoming data, financial markets and fiscal policy. LABOUR MARKET SENDS CONFLICTING MESSAGES NONFARM SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT 3mth MA 6mth MA 200k UNEMPLOYMENT AND CLAIMS DIVERGE Unemployment rate (R2) Jobless claims (R) Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy 4

6 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY THE US INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Interest rates are on hold for an extended period o Current threshold of 6.5% unemployment: Not a trigger for higher rates, only a threshold Level at 6.5% likely to be lowered FED s message rates are on hold for an extended period LESS QE BUT STILL ZIRP = SHIFT IN INSTRUMENTS MIX BUT NOT A CHANGE IN ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE THRESHOLD FOR RATES: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 6.5% Rate hike threshold = 6.5% Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy 5

7 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT CANADIAN INFLATION DISINFLATIONARY PRESSURES Source: Scotiabank Economics & FX Strategy & Bloomberg BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 6

8 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMY Bus outlook survey : some difficulty meeting rising demand (L) Business outlook survey labour shortages (L) Output gap measure (excl temp factors) (R) Source: Bank of Canada BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 7

9 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY SPILLOVER EFFECTS 1. Financial Stability Risk Low interest rates fuel household debt. Rising real estate prices and high household debt. Financial stability risk driver would be surge in unemployment or rising rates. Small open economies at risk of G4 central bank spillover effects. 2. Volatility central bank policy crushed vol in 2012; volatility likely to return when policy is removed. HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT, RISING REAL ESTATE PRICES, FINANCIAL STABILITY RISK HOUSE PRICE INDEX 10 YRS FROM Q NZ CANADA SWEDEN AUSTRALIA UK Q = 100 rebased Source: The Economist 8

10 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO DISPOSABLE INCOME Source: Bank of Canada & Stats Canada last observation: Q2 13 BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 9

11 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK ONE YEAR OIS PRICES IN 8% PROBABILITY OF RATE HIKE IN CANADA As of November 15th Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & Bloomberg At 1.0% market pricing in a 0% probability of an interest rate hike or cut over next 12 months BANK OF CANADA REMOVES HAWKISH BIAS Market prices in 8% chance of rate hike in next 12months (as of November 5, 2013). 2014: Fed to taper and drive USD strength in 2014; December not off table & 2015: BoC to shift to an increasingly hawkish stance, stabilizing CAD. Governor Poloz drops financial stability warning. 10

12 CAD POSITIVE THE NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMIC BACKDROPS ARE LINKED US & CANADIAN GDPs ARE LINKED Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy US AND CANADIAN GDP ARE LINKED What is good for the US is good for Canada. 11

13 THE CDN vs US ECONOMIC: HOUSING AND EXPORTS ARE OFF CYCLE CONSUMPTION, BUSINESS INVESTMENT & GOVERNMENT VS NET EXPORTS & RESIDENTIAL CDN 0.4 CDN US 0.3 US Consumption Business Investment Government Net Exports CONSUMPTION, BUSINESS INVESTMENT & GOVERNMENT 2.0 CDN US Consumption Business Investment VS NET EXPORTS & RESIDENTIAL Government Residential CDN US Net Exports Residential Source: Scotiabank 12

14 CAD RISK: NORTH AMERICAN OIL PRICING OIL PRICE SPREADS Brent WTI Spread between Brent and Western Canadian Select Western Cdn Select Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & Bloomberg OIL: PRICING IMPROVED BUT DETERIOATING AGAIN The Brent Western Cdn Select spread narrowed into the summer; but has widen again This spread is important for Canada; when it is narrow it is CAD pos and vice versa. 13

15 CAD RISK: US DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION US DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DOES NOT EQUAL LOWER CDN OIL EXPORTS US OIL IMPORTS ARE FALLING BUT NOT FROM CANADA Mn of barrels Total US oil imports US imports from Canada Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy, Bloomberg, US Department of Energy 14

16 CAD NEGATIVE: CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CANADA's CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 3 MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICIT Forecast (IMF) Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & IMF Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA s CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCES Canada is expected to make little headway on improving its current account deficit. 15

17 CAD POSITIVE: DEBT & FISCAL BURDEN CANADA: NET DEBT IS LOW CANADA: FISCAL DEFICIT IS IMPROVING as % of GDP Forecast 2 as % of GDP Forecast Source: IMF, Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA S BALANCES ARE THE ENVY OF MANY Net debt is low and stable Fiscal deficit is a concern, but narrowing Not as positive as it was in mid 2000s Positive on relative metric 16

18 CAD POSITIVE: FLOWS FOREIGN INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS Fgn fixed income Fgn equity 6 mth MA of total Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy CAD POSITIVE FLOWS MODERATE International securities transactions trending lower Diverging equity performance Flows remain positive but smaller Psychology has changed 17

19 CAD POSITIVE: FLOWS THE VALUE IN TRIPLE AAA 7.0% 6.0% ALLOCATION TO OTHER, CAD, AUD CAD (bn) $450 bn $400 $350 $25 bn CHANGE IN RESERVES Q/Q 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% AUD (bn) Reserves (bn) Percent (L) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $050 $00 $25 CAD EUR AUD CHF USD GBP JPY Other emerging advanced 1.0% $000 $50 Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy, IMF FX RESERVE MANAGEMENT SUPPORTS CAD FX reserves allocated to other currencies falls but to CAD and AUD it climbs. FX reserve buying of USD, CAD and AUD is only positive. 18

20 CAD NEUTRAL: SENTIMENT IS BEARISH BUT FAR MORE BALANCED CAD: GROSS LONG, SHORT & NET '000s of contracts long short 100 Net Position Gross Long Gross Short 125 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy 10 5 long short 5 10 NET LONG / SHORT POSITION VS USD $ bn JPY AUD CAD GBP MXN NZD CHF EUR Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy As of November 5 th, 2013 SENTIMENT IS BEARISH TOWARDS CAD CAD is held net short; but far more balanced than in April Allocation to CAD is relatively small. 19

21 CAD DRIVERS & OUTLOOK USDCAD FORECAST Q4 2014: 1.06 CENTRAL BANK POLICY: FED TO TAPER DRIVING USD STRENGTH BOC DROPS HAWKISH BIAS GROWTH OUTLOOK U.S. ECONOMY SET TO OUTPERFROM IN MEDIUM TERM WHAT IS GOOD FOR U.S. IS GOOD FOR CANADA CHINA s OUTLOOK IS STABILIZING (SCOTIABANK EXPECTS 7.3% GDP IN 2014) CANADIAN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS LOW INFLATION & MODERATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS & HOUSING PRICES ARE CONCERNS COMMODITIES MARKET TOO PESIMISTIC ON IMPACT OF US DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ON CANADA CURRENT ACCOUNT & DEBT PROFILE: LONG TERM STORIES UNLIKELY TO DRIVE NEAR TERM CAD FLOWS: POSITIVE BUT MODERATING SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL CAD 20

22 SUMMARY USDCAD BULLISH INTO 2014 BUT THEN HOLDS IT OWN Q4 2014: 1.06 Economy underperforms and reliant on US. Central banks Fed to taper eventually; Fed and BoC to hike rates in tandem. Politics US side overshadows Canadian side. EURUSD BEARISH Q4 2014: 1.25 Economy underperforms and still struggling to firm. Central banks ECB likely to stay dovish for longer than other central banks. Politics vulnerable to negotiations in banking sector banking union (SRM). GBPUSD BEARISH Q4 2014: 1.55 Economy recent positive upswing; but still leveraged to Europe. Central banks BoE likely to stay dovish for longer than the Fed. Politics US side to temporarily overshadow UK side. USDJPY BULLISH Q4 2014: 109 Economy recovering and early success on Abe s policy Central banks BoJ likely to increase expansion of monetary base and drive USDJPY upside. Politics vulnerable to PM Abe s foreign policy and aggressive goals. 21

23 DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER: This report is prepared by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) as a resource for clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which The Bank or its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Scotiabank or its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time take positions in the currencies mentioned herein as principal or agent. Directors, officers or employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations referred to herein. Scotiabank and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. This report may include forward looking statements about the objectives and strategies of members of the Scotiabank Group. Such forward looking statements are inherently subject to uncertainties beyond the control of the members of the Scotiabank Group including but not limited to economic and financial conditions globally, regulatory development in Canada and elsewhere, technological developments and competition. The reader is cautioned that the member's actual performance could differ materially from such forward looking statements. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of strategies set out in this report may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your legal, accounting and other advisors. Information in this report regarding services and products of Scotiabank is applicable only in jurisdictions where such services and products may lawfully be offered for sale and is void where prohibited by law. If you access this report from outside of Canada, you are responsible for compliance with local, national and international laws. Not all products and services are available across Canada or in all countries. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements. This research and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of Scotiabank. Scotiabank is a Canadian chartered bank. TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with Global Banking and Markets, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including, Scotia Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. all members of the Scotiabank Group. Dodd Frank Act Disclaimer: This material has been prepared and distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia for informational and marketing purposes only and should not be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a call to action or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap. You need to exercise independent judgment in evaluating this material, and you should consult with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors as to whether any swap or trading strategy involving a swap is suitable or advisable for you. 22

USDCAD OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l June 2013

USDCAD OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l June 2013 USDCAD OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416-866-5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM June 2013 DIAL IN: 905-694-9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 6045472# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1

More information

CAD: THE STORY FROM WORST TO BEST CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l July 2014

CAD: THE STORY FROM WORST TO BEST CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l July 2014 CAD: THE STORY FROM WORST TO BEST CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM July 2014 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD a mixed path REAL GDP US outperforms Canada 2012

More information

Foreign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress

Foreign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress 2013-14 Foreign Exchange Outlook Making Progress Camilla Sutton Chief Currency Strategist 2012 Forecast vs Performance SCOTIABANK FORECASTS VS ACTUAL RETURNS (2012) 8 4 % return 0 JPY CAD GBP AUD EUR -4-8

More information

CAD: A BALANCED OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l

CAD: A BALANCED OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l CAD: A BALANCED OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM APRIL 2013 DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 985 884 490 # CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS

More information

FX OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l April 2014

FX OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l April 2014 FX OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM April 2014 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD a mixed path REAL GDP US outperforms Canada 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 00

More information

FX OUTLOOK: MAKING PROGRESS CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST l NOVEMBER 2012

FX OUTLOOK: MAKING PROGRESS CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST l NOVEMBER 2012 FX OUTLOOK: MAKING PROGRESS CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST l 416 866 5470 NOVEMBER 2012 DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 336 571 076# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 Skip

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT CAD Risk Continues To Build As Speculators Add To Both Sides Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 18 & were released Friday Dec 21. The aggregate USD position climbed a modest $.3bn on the week,

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Friday, December 21, 218 CAD Risk Continues To Build As Speculators Add To Both Sides Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 18 & were released Friday Dec 21. The aggregate USD position climbed a

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Friday, January 5, 218 Bullish EUR Position Reaches Fresh Record High Data in this report cover up to Tuesday January 2nd & were released Friday January 5th. The EUR net position has climbed to a fresh

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Friday, November 3, 218 Aggregate USD Long Climbs To Fresh Multi-Year High Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Oct 2 & were released Friday Oct 5. This week s positioning adjustments were limited to

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Friday, August 1, 218 CAD Net Short Halved In Past Month; EUR Bears Add To Shorts Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 7 & were released Friday July 1. This week s positioning adjustments were

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Monday, December 1, 218 Aggregate USD Long Climbs To Fresh High On EUR, JPY Adjustments Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 4 & were released Monday Dec 1. This week s CFTC report reveals a continued

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Monday, November 26, 218 Bears Driving Continued Deterioration In EUR Net As Longs Bail Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Nov 2 & were released Monday Nov 26. This week s speculative positioning

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Aggressive Build In CAD Net Short; Aggregate USD Long Extended Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec & were released Friday Feb 1. The CFTC releases were interrupted by the US Government shutdown

More information

FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC

FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC TRADERS TURN BEARISH CAD; RETAIN BULLISH EUR BETS Data in this report cover up to Tuesday August 27 & were released Friday Aug 3. The net

More information

THE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l October 2013

THE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l October 2013 THE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM October 2013 AGENDA THREE TOPICS 1. Result of the latest BIS triennial central bank survey

More information

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT Friday, April 27, 218 EUR Bulls Cut Longs, CAD Bears Miss Out Again Data in this report cover up to Tuesday April 24 & were released Friday April 27. The latest snapshot of speculative market sentiment

More information

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES It s All About the Timing The only substantive change to our forecast this month is to shift the timing of expected increases by the Federal Reserve, but leave the total amount of tightening unchanged.

More information

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast

Weekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 High Yield Currencies 04-05 Upcoming Economic Figures

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES Foundation for Growth Remains Solid The global recovery remains on firm footing, despite the very recent rise in stock market volatility. In fact, the correction in equity markets has been triggered by

More information

Daily FX Focus

Daily FX Focus Important Risk Disclosure Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES The forecast laid out in our April Global Outlook remains largely on track, though global growth is revised up slightly to 3.5% in 2017. A few of the changes to highlight are: Momentum continues to build

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Steady as She Goes

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Steady as She Goes Steady as She Goes Our outlook has remained generally unchanged over the last month. Global growth remains solid, led by a very strong US economy. Trade policy risks remain elevated, particularly as they

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES Recovery Remains on Track CONTACTS The synchronous global recovery remains robust, as all signs continue to point to strong and mutually beneficial growth. Indicators of investment activity remain, by

More information

Daily FX Focus 24/12/2018

Daily FX Focus 24/12/2018 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 24/12/218 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

Daily FX Focus 9/10/2017

Daily FX Focus 9/10/2017 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 9/1/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

Daily FX Focus 27/12/2017

Daily FX Focus 27/12/2017 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 27/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

Daily FX Focus 11/7/2017

Daily FX Focus 11/7/2017 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 11/7/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Canadian Growth Stronger than Expected, Poloz to Raise Rates in September

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Canadian Growth Stronger than Expected, Poloz to Raise Rates in September Canadian Growth Stronger than Expected, Poloz to Raise Rates in September The global outlook is largely unchanged from our July forecast. Global momentum remains generally strong though trade-related risks

More information

FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC

FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC EUR & JPY BULLS WERE VULNERABLE AHEAD OF FED Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sept 16, ahead of the FOMC, Scotland s referendum,

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES Global Growth: Another Upward Revision Global momentum remains strong, with data received over the last month suggesting global growth in 2017 will be a touch stronger than we anticipated last month. CONTACTS

More information

Daily FX Focus 29/12/2017

Daily FX Focus 29/12/2017 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

Daily FX Focus 14-Jan-2014

Daily FX Focus 14-Jan-2014 Currency This Week 12 MONTHS Comment AUD/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH EUR/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBP/USD BULLISH BEARISH NZD/USD BULLISH BULLISH USD/RMB BEARISH NEUTRAL USD/CAD NEUTRAL BULLISH USD/JPY BULLISH BEARISH

More information

Daily FX Focus 28-Jan-2014

Daily FX Focus 28-Jan-2014 Currency This Week 12 MONTHS Comment AUD/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH EUR/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBP/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH NZD/USD BULLISH BULLISH USD/RMB BEARISH NEUTRAL USD/CAD BULLISH NEUTRAL USD/JPY NEUTRAL BEARISH

More information

Jump-Starting Canadian Growth. Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 2016

Jump-Starting Canadian Growth. Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 2016 Jump-Starting Canadian Growth Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 216 Persistent Headwinds To Stronger Global Growth Insufficient Aggregate Demand Reinforced By Structural And Cyclical Factors

More information

Daily FX Focus 3/10/2018

Daily FX Focus 3/10/2018 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable

More information

Weekly FX Focus 24/9/2018

Weekly FX Focus 24/9/2018 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having

More information

Risk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017.

Risk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017. Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 8, Issue 31 24 th July 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 The Central Bank

More information

Daily FX Focus 1/12/2017

Daily FX Focus 1/12/2017 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 1/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become

More information

G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB

G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB Economic and Financial Analysis 23 October 2017 FX 23 October 2017 Article G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB The key focus for FX markets is the ECB meeting on Thursday. Here's our view of major currency

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES International 2000-14 2015 2016f 2017f 2000-14 2015 2016f 2017f Real GDP Consumer Prices (annual % change) (y/y % change, year-end) World (based on purchasing power parity) 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.3 Canada 2.2 1.1

More information

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES The Bank of Canada: How High, How Fast? The global economy continues to surpass expectations. The acceleration in growth is broadly-based across both firms and households, and it is getting a powerful

More information

Daily FX Focus 23/10/2018. USDCAD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Canada's October central bank meeting result.

Daily FX Focus 23/10/2018. USDCAD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Canada's October central bank meeting result. 23/1/218 Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD USDCAD traded within the range of 1.375-1.3126. The upcoming release will be Canada's October central bank meeting result. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES Uncertainty on the Rise as Trump s Policies Start to Hurt Economic uncertainty is on the rise, owing largely to elevated concerns about the US/China trade war. We have long flagged this as the single most

More information

Daily FX Focus 24/7/2018. Canada wholesale trade improved in May. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May GDP.

Daily FX Focus 24/7/2018. Canada wholesale trade improved in May. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May GDP. 24/7/218 Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD Canada wholesale trade improved in May. USDCAD once touched 1.3179 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May GDP. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current

More information

Weekly FX Focus. FX Focus:USD/CAD. AUD vs USD / Last week, Australia unemployment rate for February was higher than expected.

Weekly FX Focus. FX Focus:USD/CAD. AUD vs USD / Last week, Australia unemployment rate for February was higher than expected. 26/3/218 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD XAU-USD. Spot (2-4 weeks) Support Support

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD XAU-USD. Spot (2-4 weeks) Support Support FX STRATEGY July 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term

More information

Daily FX Market Commentary

Daily FX Market Commentary EUR/USD - EUR Underperform Eurozone data printed on the soft side. German inflation was unrevised in the final November reading. French CPI fell 0.3% YoY while Italian industrial production lowered to

More information

Daily FX Focus 16/8/2018

Daily FX Focus 16/8/2018 :USD/CAD Canada existing home sales dropped in July. USDCAD once touched 1.3174 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July CPI. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current Trend Support

More information

Daily FX Focus. AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate.

Daily FX Focus. AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate. 2/5/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for

More information

*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE

*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE *INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Citibank Wealth Management Nov 13, 2017 with data as of Nov 10, 2017 Weekly FX Strategy FX Analysis Data

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Friday, 28 July 2017 Australian Dollar Outlook Turning Points and Policy Shifts The Australian dollar recently broke out of its narrow trading band where it has been stuck for nearly two years. This month,

More information

Daily FX Focus 19/3/2015

Daily FX Focus 19/3/2015 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 19/3/215 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product

More information

Daily FX Focus. FX Focus:AUD/USD

Daily FX Focus. FX Focus:AUD/USD 24/5/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable

More information

Daily FX Focus 7/6/2018

Daily FX Focus 7/6/2018 Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD Canada international merchandise trade was improved in April. USDCAD once dropped to 1.2855 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May housing starts figure. Currency AUD

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD** XAU-USD** Spot Support

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD** XAU-USD** Spot Support FX STRATEGY 7 January 03 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg 3 AUD USD Pg USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 XAU USD Pg 7 Interest

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD. Spot (2 4 weeks) Support Support

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD. Spot (2 4 weeks) Support Support FX STRATEGY 25 November 2013 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our

More information

Daily FX Focus. AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched Markets await the release of December Trade Balance.

Daily FX Focus. AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched Markets await the release of December Trade Balance. 1/2/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for

More information

Daily FX & Market Commentary

Daily FX & Market Commentary Daily FX & Market Commentary 1 Market Overview US The Government shutdown extended into new year with little sign of progress. Equities around the world rose on Monday as possible progress in trade dispute

More information

Canada Positioning for the Future

Canada Positioning for the Future Canada Positioning for the Future FEI Canada June 16, 217 Mary E. Webb Director, Economic & Fiscal Policy Perhaps a Stronger 217 More Balanced Provincial Output Gains 6 2 real GDP, annual % change 12 8

More information

The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director

The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director May 211 Global Growth Shy of Pre-Recession Pace 6 Annual Global Real GDP growth 5 5% 4 3 2 4 yrs before recession

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ECONOMICS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK Canada and US Long-Run Economic Outlook: 2018 23 Over the long run Canadian real GDP is expected to grow at 1.8 annually, reflecting relatively weak productivity and modest labour input growth, slightly

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Decreasing. EUR/USD is declining, approaching

More information

The global economy and the Fiji dollar

The global economy and the Fiji dollar The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end

More information

CMS Prime DAILY MARKET REPORT

CMS Prime DAILY MARKET REPORT CMS Prime DAILY MARKET REPORT May 1,5 2018 EURUSD BEARISH BIAS short position at 1.1935 with SL : 1.1960 and with targets at 1.1910 and 1.1890 long position at 1.1960 with SL : 1.1910 and with targets

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Thursday, 12 July 2018 Australian Dollar Outlook Uncertainty Creeps In A multitude of factors have placed downward pressure on the Australian dollar in recent months. These include a lift in downside risks

More information

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY. 14 th October, 2014

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY. 14 th October, 2014 DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY 14 th October, 2014 Domestic and International Highlights Indian rupee opened at 60.93 after closing the previous session at 61.10 levels. The intra-day range is seen between 60.85-61.25

More information

WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY

WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY July 03, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Central banker s comments dominated

More information

MTFX ANALYTICS OCTOBER 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST

MTFX ANALYTICS OCTOBER 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST MTFX ANALYTICS OCTOBER 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST Foreign Exchange & Global Payments MONTHLY CURRENCY FORECAST CHART GBP/USD EXCHANGE RATES SEP Avg OCT f 2012 Q4 f USD/CAD 0.9790 0.9600 1.0200 0.9800 EUR/USD

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Trying to bounce. EUR/USD is bouncing

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Decreasing. EUR/USD is decreasing following

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Further sideways trading. EUR/USD sideways

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Increasing. EUR/USD is bouncing back

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Declining sharply. EUR/USD has broken

More information

Nivesh Monthly Dollar/Rupee Outlook

Nivesh Monthly Dollar/Rupee Outlook Nivesh Monthly Dollar/Rupee Outlook 3 January, 2018 Currency LTP Chg% MoM Chg % Yoy USDINR 63.92-0.79-5.93 EURINR 76.38-0.13 6.88 GBPINR 86.06-0.84 2.64 JPYINR 56.72-1.29-2.86 DX 91.99-1.05-10.07 EURUSD

More information

Daily FX Focus 29/12/2017

Daily FX Focus 29/12/2017 Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Grinding higher. EUR/USD continues its

More information

Mixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls

Mixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls 24 FEBRUARY 2017 Mixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls USD: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin - Says there are certain issues with USD strength; adds Trump is aiming to pass tax reform by August but

More information

Here s What We re Thinking 10/3/2018

Here s What We re Thinking 10/3/2018 10/3/2018 Investment Strategy We continue to recommend overweight exposure to equities and underweight exposure to fixed income, relative to our long-term strategic asset allocation model. The United States-Mexico-Canada

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIA FLASH

GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIA FLASH Hawkish BoC Hikes And Warns Of More To Come CONTACTS As expected the BoC hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% and that s the right thing to have done in my opinion. My read of the overall bias in the

More information

Daily FX & Market Commentary [ ]

Daily FX & Market Commentary [ ] Daily FX & Market Commentary [] Market Overview US US main indexes fell for a third session in a row, with materials, utilities and health care sectors being the main decliners. A Reuters poll suggested

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD FX STRATEGY September 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer

More information

AUD-EUR OUTLOOK Risk Appetite is the Key Wednesday, 25 January 2012 The Australian dollar has recently soared to record highs against the euro, reflecting heightened concerns about European sovereign risk,

More information

Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets

Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets William W. Priest CEO, Co-CIO & Portfolio Manager The information contained herein reflects, as of the date hereof,

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD. Spot Support

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD. Spot Support FX STRATEGY 4 May 0 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a 4 week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg AUD USD Pg 4 USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 Interest rate differentials

More information

New World Realities. Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist. Edmonton Real Estate Forum. Edmonton, May 3, Presentation to:

New World Realities. Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist. Edmonton Real Estate Forum. Edmonton, May 3, Presentation to: New World Realities Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist Presentation to: Edmonton Real Estate Forum Edmonton, May 3, 211 The Global Economy Is Reviving Real GDP 12 1 annual % change 2-7 21e 211f 212f 8

More information

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying

More information

Weekly FX Focus 18/12/2017

Weekly FX Focus 18/12/2017 Important Risk Warning Weekly FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable

More information

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD

[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting

More information

Daily FX & Market Commentary

Daily FX & Market Commentary Table: Daily Market Movement (Oct 26, 2017) Data Source: Bloomberg L.P. October 27, 2017 Published from Tuesday to Friday Equity Market Indices Close Change % Bond Yields Close Change % U.S. U.S. Treasuries

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD FX STRATEGY 8 October 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer

More information

fx strategy Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed fx 25 July 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

fx strategy Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed fx 25 July 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group fx strategy fx 25 July 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed Two key policy meetings are likely to shape currency markets during

More information

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December The Winds of Change. Global expansion to continue, but downside risks are growing

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December The Winds of Change. Global expansion to continue, but downside risks are growing - Global GDP growth year-over-year % change.7.7.7. 7 8 9 7 8 9 Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December 8 The Winds of Change Global expansion

More information

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD. We turn bullish on AUD-USD (from neutral earlier). A decisive break above has reversed the earlier downtrend.

EUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD. We turn bullish on AUD-USD (from neutral earlier). A decisive break above has reversed the earlier downtrend. FX STRATEGY 3 September 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer

More information

fx strategy USD beginning to stabilise EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD

fx strategy USD beginning to stabilise EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function fx strategy fx 12 May 2014

More information

New World Rising. Calgary Real Estate Forum. Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist. October 24, 2012

New World Rising. Calgary Real Estate Forum. Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist. October 24, 2012 New World Rising Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist Calgary Real Estate Forum October 24, 212 Global Growth Has Lost Momentum Real GDP 12 1 8 annual % change 24-7 211e 212f 213f 6 4 2-2 China India

More information

Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty

Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty Presentation to: Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research Scotiabank Economics, Toronto

More information