CAD OUTLOOK A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l
|
|
- Marlene Hamilton
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 CONFERENCE CALL Dial in: (local to Toronto) Passcode: # CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 to skip backwards 5 seconds; press 3 skip forward 5 seconds Press 4 to skip backwards 5 minutes; press 6 to skip forward 5 minutes Press 5 to pause the presentation press 5 again to resume CAD OUTLOOK A BALANCED PERSPECTIVE CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM November 2013
2 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD performance is mixed REAL GDP US outperforms Canada f 2014f 2015f f 2014f 2015f USDCAD US CADUSD Canada AUDUSD Mexico EURUSD Euro Zone 1.3 (0.5) GBPUSD UK USDJPY Japan USDCNY China INFLATION Expected to remain contained INTEREST RATES Remain accomodative US Q413 Q414 Q415 Canada FED BoC COMMODITIES Yearly averages ECB Oil (WTI) BoE Gold 1,410 1,350 1,400 BoJ RBA
3 YEAR TO DATE: THE STORY FX RETURNS YEAR TO DATE AGAINST USD (up to Nov 15, 2013) % Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy FX MARKETS: THREE MAJOR THEMES Central bank policy diverging policy paths & spillover of G4 Global growth: 1) improving; 2) advanced vs emerging Politics: elections, leadership as well as geopolitical risks 2
4 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY INFLATION US: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER EUROPE: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA: INFLATION TRENDING LOWER.. Headline CPI % y/y Core CPI % y/y Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy Inflation threat fails to materialize US, European, Canadian and others have inflation trending lower. Disinflation has major risks. Disinflation opens door to central policy response. 3
5 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY THE FED s DECISION NOT TO TAPER QE expect to be tapered in early 2014 o o o Goal build near term economic momentum by achieving an improvement in the labour force. Criteria Substantial improvement in labour market, interpreted as nonfarm gains +200k mth. QE not preset conditional on incoming data, financial markets and fiscal policy. LABOUR MARKET SENDS CONFLICTING MESSAGES NONFARM SHOWS EARLY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT 3mth MA 6mth MA 200k UNEMPLOYMENT AND CLAIMS DIVERGE Unemployment rate (R2) Jobless claims (R) Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy 4
6 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY THE US INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Interest rates are on hold for an extended period o Current threshold of 6.5% unemployment: Not a trigger for higher rates, only a threshold Level at 6.5% likely to be lowered FED s message rates are on hold for an extended period LESS QE BUT STILL ZIRP = SHIFT IN INSTRUMENTS MIX BUT NOT A CHANGE IN ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE THRESHOLD FOR RATES: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 6.5% Rate hike threshold = 6.5% Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy 5
7 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT CANADIAN INFLATION DISINFLATIONARY PRESSURES Source: Scotiabank Economics & FX Strategy & Bloomberg BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 6
8 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT EXCESS CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN ECONOMY Bus outlook survey : some difficulty meeting rising demand (L) Business outlook survey labour shortages (L) Output gap measure (excl temp factors) (R) Source: Bank of Canada BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 7
9 THEME 1: CENTRAL BANK POLICY SPILLOVER EFFECTS 1. Financial Stability Risk Low interest rates fuel household debt. Rising real estate prices and high household debt. Financial stability risk driver would be surge in unemployment or rising rates. Small open economies at risk of G4 central bank spillover effects. 2. Volatility central bank policy crushed vol in 2012; volatility likely to return when policy is removed. HIGH HOUSEHOLD DEBT, RISING REAL ESTATE PRICES, FINANCIAL STABILITY RISK HOUSE PRICE INDEX 10 YRS FROM Q NZ CANADA SWEDEN AUSTRALIA UK Q = 100 rebased Source: The Economist 8
10 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA FOCUS CAPACITY, INFLATION & HOUSEHOLD DEBT HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO DISPOSABLE INCOME Source: Bank of Canada & Stats Canada last observation: Q2 13 BANK OF CANADA'S FOCUS 1. Inflation expected to trend higher; returning to target Q Excess capacity output gap expected to close end Household debt showing signs of stabilization. 9
11 CAD NEUTRAL: BANK OF CANADA MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK ONE YEAR OIS PRICES IN 8% PROBABILITY OF RATE HIKE IN CANADA As of November 15th Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & Bloomberg At 1.0% market pricing in a 0% probability of an interest rate hike or cut over next 12 months BANK OF CANADA REMOVES HAWKISH BIAS Market prices in 8% chance of rate hike in next 12months (as of November 5, 2013). 2014: Fed to taper and drive USD strength in 2014; December not off table & 2015: BoC to shift to an increasingly hawkish stance, stabilizing CAD. Governor Poloz drops financial stability warning. 10
12 CAD POSITIVE THE NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMIC BACKDROPS ARE LINKED US & CANADIAN GDPs ARE LINKED Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy US AND CANADIAN GDP ARE LINKED What is good for the US is good for Canada. 11
13 THE CDN vs US ECONOMIC: HOUSING AND EXPORTS ARE OFF CYCLE CONSUMPTION, BUSINESS INVESTMENT & GOVERNMENT VS NET EXPORTS & RESIDENTIAL CDN 0.4 CDN US 0.3 US Consumption Business Investment Government Net Exports CONSUMPTION, BUSINESS INVESTMENT & GOVERNMENT 2.0 CDN US Consumption Business Investment VS NET EXPORTS & RESIDENTIAL Government Residential CDN US Net Exports Residential Source: Scotiabank 12
14 CAD RISK: NORTH AMERICAN OIL PRICING OIL PRICE SPREADS Brent WTI Spread between Brent and Western Canadian Select Western Cdn Select Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & Bloomberg OIL: PRICING IMPROVED BUT DETERIOATING AGAIN The Brent Western Cdn Select spread narrowed into the summer; but has widen again This spread is important for Canada; when it is narrow it is CAD pos and vice versa. 13
15 CAD RISK: US DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION US DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DOES NOT EQUAL LOWER CDN OIL EXPORTS US OIL IMPORTS ARE FALLING BUT NOT FROM CANADA Mn of barrels Total US oil imports US imports from Canada Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy, Bloomberg, US Department of Energy 14
16 CAD NEGATIVE: CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CANADA's CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 3 MERCHANDISE TRADE DEFICIT Forecast (IMF) Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy & IMF Source: Bloomberg & Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA s CURRENT ACCOUNT & TRADE BALANCES Canada is expected to make little headway on improving its current account deficit. 15
17 CAD POSITIVE: DEBT & FISCAL BURDEN CANADA: NET DEBT IS LOW CANADA: FISCAL DEFICIT IS IMPROVING as % of GDP Forecast 2 as % of GDP Forecast Source: IMF, Scotiabank FX Strategy CANADA S BALANCES ARE THE ENVY OF MANY Net debt is low and stable Fiscal deficit is a concern, but narrowing Not as positive as it was in mid 2000s Positive on relative metric 16
18 CAD POSITIVE: FLOWS FOREIGN INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS Fgn fixed income Fgn equity 6 mth MA of total Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy CAD POSITIVE FLOWS MODERATE International securities transactions trending lower Diverging equity performance Flows remain positive but smaller Psychology has changed 17
19 CAD POSITIVE: FLOWS THE VALUE IN TRIPLE AAA 7.0% 6.0% ALLOCATION TO OTHER, CAD, AUD CAD (bn) $450 bn $400 $350 $25 bn CHANGE IN RESERVES Q/Q 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% AUD (bn) Reserves (bn) Percent (L) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $050 $00 $25 CAD EUR AUD CHF USD GBP JPY Other emerging advanced 1.0% $000 $50 Source: Scotiabank FX Strategy, IMF FX RESERVE MANAGEMENT SUPPORTS CAD FX reserves allocated to other currencies falls but to CAD and AUD it climbs. FX reserve buying of USD, CAD and AUD is only positive. 18
20 CAD NEUTRAL: SENTIMENT IS BEARISH BUT FAR MORE BALANCED CAD: GROSS LONG, SHORT & NET '000s of contracts long short 100 Net Position Gross Long Gross Short 125 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy 10 5 long short 5 10 NET LONG / SHORT POSITION VS USD $ bn JPY AUD CAD GBP MXN NZD CHF EUR Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FX Strategy As of November 5 th, 2013 SENTIMENT IS BEARISH TOWARDS CAD CAD is held net short; but far more balanced than in April Allocation to CAD is relatively small. 19
21 CAD DRIVERS & OUTLOOK USDCAD FORECAST Q4 2014: 1.06 CENTRAL BANK POLICY: FED TO TAPER DRIVING USD STRENGTH BOC DROPS HAWKISH BIAS GROWTH OUTLOOK U.S. ECONOMY SET TO OUTPERFROM IN MEDIUM TERM WHAT IS GOOD FOR U.S. IS GOOD FOR CANADA CHINA s OUTLOOK IS STABILIZING (SCOTIABANK EXPECTS 7.3% GDP IN 2014) CANADIAN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS LOW INFLATION & MODERATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS & HOUSING PRICES ARE CONCERNS COMMODITIES MARKET TOO PESIMISTIC ON IMPACT OF US DOMESTIC PRODUCTION ON CANADA CURRENT ACCOUNT & DEBT PROFILE: LONG TERM STORIES UNLIKELY TO DRIVE NEAR TERM CAD FLOWS: POSITIVE BUT MODERATING SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL CAD 20
22 SUMMARY USDCAD BULLISH INTO 2014 BUT THEN HOLDS IT OWN Q4 2014: 1.06 Economy underperforms and reliant on US. Central banks Fed to taper eventually; Fed and BoC to hike rates in tandem. Politics US side overshadows Canadian side. EURUSD BEARISH Q4 2014: 1.25 Economy underperforms and still struggling to firm. Central banks ECB likely to stay dovish for longer than other central banks. Politics vulnerable to negotiations in banking sector banking union (SRM). GBPUSD BEARISH Q4 2014: 1.55 Economy recent positive upswing; but still leveraged to Europe. Central banks BoE likely to stay dovish for longer than the Fed. Politics US side to temporarily overshadow UK side. USDJPY BULLISH Q4 2014: 109 Economy recovering and early success on Abe s policy Central banks BoJ likely to increase expansion of monetary base and drive USDJPY upside. Politics vulnerable to PM Abe s foreign policy and aggressive goals. 21
23 DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER: This report is prepared by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) as a resource for clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which The Bank or its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Scotiabank or its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time take positions in the currencies mentioned herein as principal or agent. Directors, officers or employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations referred to herein. Scotiabank and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. This report may include forward looking statements about the objectives and strategies of members of the Scotiabank Group. Such forward looking statements are inherently subject to uncertainties beyond the control of the members of the Scotiabank Group including but not limited to economic and financial conditions globally, regulatory development in Canada and elsewhere, technological developments and competition. The reader is cautioned that the member's actual performance could differ materially from such forward looking statements. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of strategies set out in this report may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your legal, accounting and other advisors. Information in this report regarding services and products of Scotiabank is applicable only in jurisdictions where such services and products may lawfully be offered for sale and is void where prohibited by law. If you access this report from outside of Canada, you are responsible for compliance with local, national and international laws. Not all products and services are available across Canada or in all countries. All Scotiabank products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements. This research and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of Scotiabank. Scotiabank is a Canadian chartered bank. TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. Scotiabank, together with Global Banking and Markets, is a marketing name for the global corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including, Scotia Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. all members of the Scotiabank Group. Dodd Frank Act Disclaimer: This material has been prepared and distributed by The Bank of Nova Scotia for informational and marketing purposes only and should not be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a call to action or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap. You need to exercise independent judgment in evaluating this material, and you should consult with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors as to whether any swap or trading strategy involving a swap is suitable or advisable for you. 22
USDCAD OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l June 2013
USDCAD OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416-866-5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM June 2013 DIAL IN: 905-694-9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 6045472# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1
More informationCAD: THE STORY FROM WORST TO BEST CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l July 2014
CAD: THE STORY FROM WORST TO BEST CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM July 2014 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD a mixed path REAL GDP US outperforms Canada 2012
More informationForeign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress
2013-14 Foreign Exchange Outlook Making Progress Camilla Sutton Chief Currency Strategist 2012 Forecast vs Performance SCOTIABANK FORECASTS VS ACTUAL RETURNS (2012) 8 4 % return 0 JPY CAD GBP AUD EUR -4-8
More informationCAD: A BALANCED OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l
CAD: A BALANCED OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM APRIL 2013 DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 985 884 490 # CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS
More informationFX OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l April 2014
FX OUTLOOK CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM April 2014 SCOTIABANK: FORECAST FX USD a mixed path REAL GDP US outperforms Canada 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 00
More informationFX OUTLOOK: MAKING PROGRESS CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST l NOVEMBER 2012
FX OUTLOOK: MAKING PROGRESS CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST l 416 866 5470 NOVEMBER 2012 DIAL IN: 905 694 9451 (local to Toronto) PASSCODE: 336 571 076# CONFERENCE CALL COMMANDS Press 1 Skip
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
CAD Risk Continues To Build As Speculators Add To Both Sides Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 18 & were released Friday Dec 21. The aggregate USD position climbed a modest $.3bn on the week,
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Friday, December 21, 218 CAD Risk Continues To Build As Speculators Add To Both Sides Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 18 & were released Friday Dec 21. The aggregate USD position climbed a
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Friday, January 5, 218 Bullish EUR Position Reaches Fresh Record High Data in this report cover up to Tuesday January 2nd & were released Friday January 5th. The EUR net position has climbed to a fresh
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Friday, November 3, 218 Aggregate USD Long Climbs To Fresh Multi-Year High Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Oct 2 & were released Friday Oct 5. This week s positioning adjustments were limited to
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Friday, August 1, 218 CAD Net Short Halved In Past Month; EUR Bears Add To Shorts Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 7 & were released Friday July 1. This week s positioning adjustments were
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Monday, December 1, 218 Aggregate USD Long Climbs To Fresh High On EUR, JPY Adjustments Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 4 & were released Monday Dec 1. This week s CFTC report reveals a continued
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Monday, November 26, 218 Bears Driving Continued Deterioration In EUR Net As Longs Bail Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Nov 2 & were released Monday Nov 26. This week s speculative positioning
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Aggressive Build In CAD Net Short; Aggregate USD Long Extended Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec & were released Friday Feb 1. The CFTC releases were interrupted by the US Government shutdown
More informationFX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC TRADERS TURN BEARISH CAD; RETAIN BULLISH EUR BETS Data in this report cover up to Tuesday August 27 & were released Friday Aug 3. The net
More informationTHE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l l October 2013
THE EURO, BIS SURVEY & GOLD CAMILLA SUTTON l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l416 866 5470 l CAMILLA.SUTTON@SCOTIABANK.COM October 2013 AGENDA THREE TOPICS 1. Result of the latest BIS triennial central bank survey
More informationGLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT
Friday, April 27, 218 EUR Bulls Cut Longs, CAD Bears Miss Out Again Data in this report cover up to Tuesday April 24 & were released Friday April 27. The latest snapshot of speculative market sentiment
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
It s All About the Timing The only substantive change to our forecast this month is to shift the timing of expected increases by the Federal Reserve, but leave the total amount of tightening unchanged.
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Sep 23, 2013 with data as of Sep 20 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 High Yield Currencies 04-05 Upcoming Economic Figures
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
Foundation for Growth Remains Solid The global recovery remains on firm footing, despite the very recent rise in stock market volatility. In fact, the correction in equity markets has been triggered by
More informationDaily FX Focus
Important Risk Disclosure Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
The forecast laid out in our April Global Outlook remains largely on track, though global growth is revised up slightly to 3.5% in 2017. A few of the changes to highlight are: Momentum continues to build
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Steady as She Goes
Steady as She Goes Our outlook has remained generally unchanged over the last month. Global growth remains solid, led by a very strong US economy. Trade policy risks remain elevated, particularly as they
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
Recovery Remains on Track CONTACTS The synchronous global recovery remains robust, as all signs continue to point to strong and mutually beneficial growth. Indicators of investment activity remain, by
More informationDaily FX Focus 24/12/2018
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 24/12/218 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationDaily FX Focus 9/10/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 9/1/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationDaily FX Focus 27/12/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 27/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationDaily FX Focus 11/7/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 11/7/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES. Canadian Growth Stronger than Expected, Poloz to Raise Rates in September
Canadian Growth Stronger than Expected, Poloz to Raise Rates in September The global outlook is largely unchanged from our July forecast. Global momentum remains generally strong though trade-related risks
More informationFX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY FX SENTIMENT REPORT COMMITMENT OF TRADERS CFTC EUR & JPY BULLS WERE VULNERABLE AHEAD OF FED Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sept 16, ahead of the FOMC, Scotland s referendum,
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
Global Growth: Another Upward Revision Global momentum remains strong, with data received over the last month suggesting global growth in 2017 will be a touch stronger than we anticipated last month. CONTACTS
More informationDaily FX Focus 29/12/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationDaily FX Focus 14-Jan-2014
Currency This Week 12 MONTHS Comment AUD/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH EUR/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBP/USD BULLISH BEARISH NZD/USD BULLISH BULLISH USD/RMB BEARISH NEUTRAL USD/CAD NEUTRAL BULLISH USD/JPY BULLISH BEARISH
More informationDaily FX Focus 28-Jan-2014
Currency This Week 12 MONTHS Comment AUD/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH EUR/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBP/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH NZD/USD BULLISH BULLISH USD/RMB BEARISH NEUTRAL USD/CAD BULLISH NEUTRAL USD/JPY NEUTRAL BEARISH
More informationJump-Starting Canadian Growth. Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 2016
Jump-Starting Canadian Growth Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 216 Persistent Headwinds To Stronger Global Growth Insufficient Aggregate Demand Reinforced By Structural And Cyclical Factors
More informationDaily FX Focus 3/10/2018
Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable
More informationWeekly FX Focus 24/9/2018
Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having
More informationRisk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 8, Issue 31 24 th July 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 The Central Bank
More informationDaily FX Focus 1/12/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 1/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationG10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB
Economic and Financial Analysis 23 October 2017 FX 23 October 2017 Article G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB The key focus for FX markets is the ECB meeting on Thursday. Here's our view of major currency
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
International 2000-14 2015 2016f 2017f 2000-14 2015 2016f 2017f Real GDP Consumer Prices (annual % change) (y/y % change, year-end) World (based on purchasing power parity) 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.3 Canada 2.2 1.1
More informationThe State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets
The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
The Bank of Canada: How High, How Fast? The global economy continues to surpass expectations. The acceleration in growth is broadly-based across both firms and households, and it is getting a powerful
More informationDaily FX Focus 23/10/2018. USDCAD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Canada's October central bank meeting result.
23/1/218 Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD USDCAD traded within the range of 1.375-1.3126. The upcoming release will be Canada's October central bank meeting result. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK S FORECAST TABLES
Uncertainty on the Rise as Trump s Policies Start to Hurt Economic uncertainty is on the rise, owing largely to elevated concerns about the US/China trade war. We have long flagged this as the single most
More informationDaily FX Focus 24/7/2018. Canada wholesale trade improved in May. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May GDP.
24/7/218 Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD Canada wholesale trade improved in May. USDCAD once touched 1.3179 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May GDP. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current
More informationWeekly FX Focus. FX Focus:USD/CAD. AUD vs USD / Last week, Australia unemployment rate for February was higher than expected.
26/3/218 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD XAU-USD. Spot (2-4 weeks) Support Support
FX STRATEGY July 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term
More informationDaily FX Market Commentary
EUR/USD - EUR Underperform Eurozone data printed on the soft side. German inflation was unrevised in the final November reading. French CPI fell 0.3% YoY while Italian industrial production lowered to
More informationDaily FX Focus 16/8/2018
:USD/CAD Canada existing home sales dropped in July. USDCAD once touched 1.3174 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July CPI. Currency AUD EUR GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY CHF SGD Current Trend Support
More informationDaily FX Focus. AUD rose prior to RBA rate decision. AUDUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be May Unemployment Rate.
2/5/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for
More information*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE
*INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Citibank Wealth Management Nov 13, 2017 with data as of Nov 10, 2017 Weekly FX Strategy FX Analysis Data
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Friday, 28 July 2017 Australian Dollar Outlook Turning Points and Policy Shifts The Australian dollar recently broke out of its narrow trading band where it has been stuck for nearly two years. This month,
More informationDaily FX Focus 19/3/2015
Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 19/3/215 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product
More informationDaily FX Focus. FX Focus:AUD/USD
24/5/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable
More informationDaily FX Focus 7/6/2018
Daily FX Focus:USD/CAD Canada international merchandise trade was improved in April. USDCAD once dropped to 1.2855 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's May housing starts figure. Currency AUD
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD** XAU-USD** Spot Support
FX STRATEGY 7 January 03 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg 3 AUD USD Pg USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 XAU USD Pg 7 Interest
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD. Spot (2 4 weeks) Support Support
FX STRATEGY 25 November 2013 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our
More informationDaily FX Focus. AUD rose 3 days in a roll, near one-week high. AUDUSD once touched Markets await the release of December Trade Balance.
1/2/217 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for
More informationDaily FX & Market Commentary
Daily FX & Market Commentary 1 Market Overview US The Government shutdown extended into new year with little sign of progress. Equities around the world rose on Monday as possible progress in trade dispute
More informationCanada Positioning for the Future
Canada Positioning for the Future FEI Canada June 16, 217 Mary E. Webb Director, Economic & Fiscal Policy Perhaps a Stronger 217 More Balanced Provincial Output Gains 6 2 real GDP, annual % change 12 8
More informationThe Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director
The Oil Shock: How Shocking Is It? By Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist & Managing Director May 211 Global Growth Shy of Pre-Recession Pace 6 Annual Global Real GDP growth 5 5% 4 3 2 4 yrs before recession
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Canada and US Long-Run Economic Outlook: 2018 23 Over the long run Canadian real GDP is expected to grow at 1.8 annually, reflecting relatively weak productivity and modest labour input growth, slightly
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Decreasing. EUR/USD is declining, approaching
More informationThe global economy and the Fiji dollar
The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationCMS Prime DAILY MARKET REPORT
CMS Prime DAILY MARKET REPORT May 1,5 2018 EURUSD BEARISH BIAS short position at 1.1935 with SL : 1.1960 and with targets at 1.1910 and 1.1890 long position at 1.1960 with SL : 1.1910 and with targets
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Thursday, 12 July 2018 Australian Dollar Outlook Uncertainty Creeps In A multitude of factors have placed downward pressure on the Australian dollar in recent months. These include a lift in downside risks
More informationDAILY MARKET COMMENTARY. 14 th October, 2014
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY 14 th October, 2014 Domestic and International Highlights Indian rupee opened at 60.93 after closing the previous session at 61.10 levels. The intra-day range is seen between 60.85-61.25
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 03, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Central banker s comments dominated
More informationMTFX ANALYTICS OCTOBER 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST
MTFX ANALYTICS OCTOBER 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST Foreign Exchange & Global Payments MONTHLY CURRENCY FORECAST CHART GBP/USD EXCHANGE RATES SEP Avg OCT f 2012 Q4 f USD/CAD 0.9790 0.9600 1.0200 0.9800 EUR/USD
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Trying to bounce. EUR/USD is bouncing
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Decreasing. EUR/USD is decreasing following
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Further sideways trading. EUR/USD sideways
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Increasing. EUR/USD is bouncing back
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Declining sharply. EUR/USD has broken
More informationNivesh Monthly Dollar/Rupee Outlook
Nivesh Monthly Dollar/Rupee Outlook 3 January, 2018 Currency LTP Chg% MoM Chg % Yoy USDINR 63.92-0.79-5.93 EURINR 76.38-0.13 6.88 GBPINR 86.06-0.84 2.64 JPYINR 56.72-1.29-2.86 DX 91.99-1.05-10.07 EURUSD
More informationDaily FX Focus 29/12/2017
Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus 29/12/217 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product
More informationDAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Grinding higher. EUR/USD continues its
More informationMixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls
24 FEBRUARY 2017 Mixed Comments From Mnuchin Disappoint USD Bulls USD: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin - Says there are certain issues with USD strength; adds Trump is aiming to pass tax reform by August but
More informationHere s What We re Thinking 10/3/2018
10/3/2018 Investment Strategy We continue to recommend overweight exposure to equities and underweight exposure to fixed income, relative to our long-term strategic asset allocation model. The United States-Mexico-Canada
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIA FLASH
Hawkish BoC Hikes And Warns Of More To Come CONTACTS As expected the BoC hiked its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% and that s the right thing to have done in my opinion. My read of the overall bias in the
More informationDaily FX & Market Commentary [ ]
Daily FX & Market Commentary [] Market Overview US US main indexes fell for a third session in a row, with materials, utilities and health care sectors being the main decliners. A Reuters poll suggested
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD
FX STRATEGY September 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer
More informationAUD-EUR OUTLOOK Risk Appetite is the Key Wednesday, 25 January 2012 The Australian dollar has recently soared to record highs against the euro, reflecting heightened concerns about European sovereign risk,
More informationSea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets
Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets William W. Priest CEO, Co-CIO & Portfolio Manager The information contained herein reflects, as of the date hereof,
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD. Spot Support
FX STRATEGY 4 May 0 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a 4 week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg AUD USD Pg 4 USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 Interest rate differentials
More informationNew World Realities. Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist. Edmonton Real Estate Forum. Edmonton, May 3, Presentation to:
New World Realities Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist Presentation to: Edmonton Real Estate Forum Edmonton, May 3, 211 The Global Economy Is Reviving Real GDP 12 1 annual % change 2-7 21e 211f 212f 8
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationWeekly FX Focus 18/12/2017
Important Risk Warning Weekly FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationDaily FX & Market Commentary
Table: Daily Market Movement (Oct 26, 2017) Data Source: Bloomberg L.P. October 27, 2017 Published from Tuesday to Friday Equity Market Indices Close Change % Bond Yields Close Change % U.S. U.S. Treasuries
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD XAU-USD
FX STRATEGY 8 October 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer
More informationfx strategy Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed fx 25 July 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group
fx strategy fx 25 July 2016 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group Great expectations from BoJ, less so from the Fed Two key policy meetings are likely to shape currency markets during
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December The Winds of Change. Global expansion to continue, but downside risks are growing
- Global GDP growth year-over-year % change.7.7.7. 7 8 9 7 8 9 Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December 8 The Winds of Change Global expansion
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD. We turn bullish on AUD-USD (from neutral earlier). A decisive break above has reversed the earlier downtrend.
FX STRATEGY 3 September 03 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a -4 week outlook and may differ from our longer
More informationfx strategy USD beginning to stabilise EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD USD/SGD GBP/USD XAU/USD
The views expressed in this publication are made on the basis of a 2-4 week outlook and may differ from our longer term views and forecasts from the Global Research function fx strategy fx 12 May 2014
More informationNew World Rising. Calgary Real Estate Forum. Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist. October 24, 2012
New World Rising Warren Jestin SVP and Chief Economist Calgary Real Estate Forum October 24, 212 Global Growth Has Lost Momentum Real GDP 12 1 8 annual % change 24-7 211e 212f 213f 6 4 2-2 China India
More informationEconomic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty
Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty Presentation to: Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research Scotiabank Economics, Toronto
More information