Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty

Transcription

1 Economic & Transportation Industry Outlook: Improving fundamentals, despite heightened global uncertainty Presentation to: Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research Scotiabank Economics, Toronto FCPC Supply Chain Symposium Toronto, Ontario April,

2 Global Growth & Industrial Activity Global Economic Growth Emerging Markets Global Growth forecast - Global Orders & Production index Global New Orders Global Industrial Production month annualized % change - Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,

3 Global Growth: Changing Gears Developed World Gears Up China & Brazil Gear Down GDP, annual % change GDP, annual % change f f f f - U.S. Euro zone Japan - India China Mexico Brazil Source: Bloomberg, BEA, Statistics, Eurostat, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,

4 Leading Indicators Strengthen Employment U.S. Bank Lending y/y % change y/y % change Global Employment - - U.S. Leading Economic Indicator U.S. Employment Total Loans C&I Loans Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Grey bars denote U.S. recession periods.

5 Benefits From A Strengthening U.S. Recovery Real GDP Exports y/y % change Ontario forecast y/y % change, -month moving average Quebec - United States Ontario Source: Statistics, U.S. BEA, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March,

6 Rising Orders Point To Further Momentum Durable Goods Orders y/y % change, -month moving average Manufacturing Leads Export Gains y/y % change, -month moving average Unfilled Orders - Resources United States Other - - Source: Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce, Scotiabank Economics.

7 Household Finances U.S. Households Canadian Households % of PDI % of PDI Average: 9- Canadian Consumer Spending - Energy & Debt Charges U.S. Consumer Spending Average: 9- Energy & Debt Charges Source: BEA, Statistics. 7

8 Low Debt Service Costs Debt Service Ratio Debt Service Ratio % of PDI % of PDI B.C. 9 9 Ontario Atlantic Alberta 7 Quebec 7 Man./Sask Source: Statistics, Equifax, Scotiabank Economics.

9 Interest Rates & Inflation Remain Low Central Bank Rates Consumer Price Inflation % y/y % change, year-end U.K. U.S. U.K. forecast forecast U.S. Euro zone Euro zone Source: Bank of, U.S. Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. - Source: Statistics, BLS, Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts at March, 9

10 Oil Market Volatility WTI Oil & Canadian Dollar Supply/Demand Fundamentals US dollars per barrel US cents y/y % change 9 Canadian Dollar Global Oil Demand Global Oil Supply 9 7 WTI forecast Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts at March,

11 Grocery Shopping Trends & Alberta Central & B.C. -month moving average, -month moving average, B.C. Alberta Quebec - Ontario Source: Statistics, Scotiabank Economics.

12 Transportation Fundamentals Intermodal Outbound Traffic International Trade Boosts Truck Volumes -month moving average, Western Canadian International Trade Eastern Cross Border Truck Traffic Source: Statistics, Bloomberg.

13 Transportation Fundamentals Fundamentals Strengthen Decade-High Truck Demand In N. America % 7 s of units s of units U.S. Trucking Industry Pricing* Class Order Backlog Class Orders EBITDA Margins (CN Rail & CP Rail) * Revenue per loaded mile, -quarter moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Global Auto Report.

14 Trucking Capacity Trends North American Monthly Class Truck Order & Production Trends thousands of units Orders -- Month Moving Average Orders Estimated Industry Replacement Rate Production Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Global Auto Report.

15 Disclaimer TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.