Committed to a better Canada:
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- Bruno Maxwell
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1 Committed to a better Canada: The Bank of Canada s role in challenging economic times Remarks to the Thunder Bay Chamber of Commerce Thunder Bay, Ontario 8 September 2016 Timothy Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada
2 Overview Canada s economic outlook What the Bank of Canada does to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada
3 Economic outlook
4 Several trends affect Canada s economy Two-speed economy Commodity price shock Two different housing markets Long recovery from the 2008 recession US economy to provide lift to Canadian economy, but exports disappointing Inflation close to target Longer-term trends at work Demographics Lower rates of economic growth
5 Canada s economy is running on two speeds 3-month moving average; index: January 2013 = 100, monthly data Latest year-over-year percentage change 2.1 Index Industries most affected by commodity prices (13 per cent of GDP) Rest of the economy (87 per cent of GDP) Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: May 2016
6 Household spending growth has held up at the national level, despite weakness in energy-producing provinces Percentage change since November 2014, monthly data % 6 % Employment (Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, left scale) Retail sales (nominal, left scale) Housing resales (right scale) National Energy-producing provinces Rest of Canada -30 Note: The energy-producing provinces are Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations Last observations: Employment and retail sales: June 2016; housing resales: July 2016
7 Canada s economic growth is uneven Contribution to real GDP growth, quarterly data 6 % Percentage points Q Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Business fixed investment (right scale) Exports (right scale) Other components of GDP (consumption, housing, government, inventories and imports; right scale) GDP growth, quarterly, at annual rates (left scale) Potential output growth, quarterly, at annual rates (left scale) Note: From the July Monetary Policy Report Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and calculations -6 Last data plotted: 2016Q3
8 Canada s labour market is still recovering 12-month moving average, monthly data % 1.5 % a. Individuals who are unemployed for 53 weeks or more Note: Series shown are expressed as a percentage of the labour force. Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations Long-term unemployment rateᵃ (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) Percentage of involuntary part-time workers (right scale) 2 Last observation: July 2016
9 In the US, more new firms are starting up and jobs are being created Quarterly data Thousands 750 % Initial claims for unemployment insurance (left scale) Job openings rate (right scale) Number of establishments (right scale, year-over-year percentage change) Note: The number of establishments includes those created by new and existing firms. Sources: US Department of Labor and US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Last observations: Establishments, 2015Q4; job openings, 2016Q1; unemployment insurance, 2016Q2
10 Many commodity prices remain low Index: January 2014 = 100, daily data July Report Index Energy Base metals Agricultural products Forestry products 0 Source: Bank of Canada Last observation: 22 August 2016
11 Investment in the energy sector has shrunk rapidly Investment in the oil and gas sector as a share of nominal GDP, annual data % Note: From the July Monetary Policy Report Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections 0.0
12 The economy is still operating below potential Excess capacity in the Canadian economy, quarterly data % Structural approach Statistical approach -5 Note: Estimates for the second quarter of 2016 are based on a decline in output of 1.0 per cent (at annual rates) for the quarter. Source: Bank of Canada Last data plotted: 2016Q2
13 Mandate
14 The Bank s mandate The Bank of Canada s mandate is to contribute to the economic well-being of Canadians. Four key responsibilities: Monetary policy Financial system Currency Funds management
15 Responsibility 1: Monetary policy to achieve low and stable inflation 12-month rate of increase, monthly data February 1991 % Inflation-control range CPI inflation Inflation target Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations Last observation: July 2016
16 Central bank policy rates are at historic lows Daily data % Canada United States Euro area Japan Sources: Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan Last observation: 23 August 2016
17 Responsibility 2: To promote the stability and efficiency of the financial system Major efforts under way to make financial systems more resilient in wake of global financial crisis In Canada, Bank shares responsibility for financial stability with other national and provincial agencies
18 Responsibility 3: Bank notes Canadians can use with confidence Metallic portrait Large window Transparent text Small numbers Maple leaf border Metallic building Frosted maple leaf window Hidden numbers Raised ink Metallic portrait Small numbers Metallic building Maple leaf border
19 The Next Series will feature a Bank NOTE-able Woman
20 Responsibility 4: Funds management Manage Canada s foreign exchange reserves and federal government s cash balances as well as public debt with the Department of Finance Provide the means of final settlement of daily flows of payments among financial institutions Canada Savings Bonds Program
21 Economic outlook summary Two-speed Canadian economy Long recovery from recession Longer-term global economic trends at work
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