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6 Estimated total job losses from 10% minimum wage increase across all provinces Upper Bound 321,300 Lower Bound 92,300 Source: CFIB calculations from Statistic Canada s 2009 Labour Force Survey data. iv
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8 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 1 Table 1 rates by province, 2010 Province General Rate Planned Increases Ontario $10.25 Newfoundland & Labrador $10.00 Nunavut $10.00 Jan 1, 2011:$11.00 Nova Scotia $9.65 Manitoba $9.50 Quebec $9.50 Saskatchewan $9.25 New Brunswick $9.00 Apr 1, 2011: $9.50 Sep 1, 2011: $10.00 Prince Edward Island $9.00 Northwest Territories $9.00 Apr 1, 2011: $10.00 Yukon $8.93 Alberta $8.80 British Columbia $8.00 Source: Provincial and Territorial Government websites.
9 2 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure 1 earners, by province (% total employed) Newfoundland and Labrador Ontario Nova Scotia Quebec New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Manitoba Saskatchewan British Columbia Alberta Canada Number of Employees: 14.1 million Source: Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, March Figure 2 By age group (% total minimum wage earners) 45 to 54, 10.0% 55 and over, 8.8% 35 to 44, 10.4% 25 to 34, 11.5% 15 to 24, 59.3% Number of Minimum Wage Earners: 817,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, March 2010.
10 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 3 Figure 3 By level of education completed (% total minimum wage earners) High school graduate, 23.0% At least some postsecondary, 42.7% Less than high school completion, 34.3% Number of Minimum Wage Earners: 817,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, March Figure 4 By employment status (% total minimum wage earners) Part-time, 59.1% Full-time, 40.9% Number of Minimum Wage Earners: 817,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, March 2010.
11 4 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure 5 By industry sector (% total employed) Accommodation and food Agriculture Trade Information, cultural, arts and recreation Management, administrative and other support Transportation and warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Education Manufacturing Health care and social assistance Professional, scientific and technical Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas Public administration Construction and utilities Number of Employees: 14.1 million 22.5 Source: Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour and Income, March 2010.
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14 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 7 Figure 6 elasticity
15 8 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure 7 Job loss estimates from 10 % minimum wage increase, by province Canada Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island 22,300 11,700 10,700 3,000 2,400 2,300 1,900 1, ,400 92,300 Estimated Lower Bound Job Losses Canada Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island 73,500 42,700 39,000 11,800 10,100 8,600 7,000 4,100 1, , ,300 Estimated Upper Bound Job Losses Source: CFIB analysis of Statistics Canada s 2009 Labour Force Survey data.
16 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 9 Table 2 Lower bound estimated job losses from 10% minimum wage increase, by province and age group 1 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada Source: CFIB analysis of Statistics Canada s 2009 Labour Force Survey data Net Loss 2,200 16,900-7,400 11,700 1,800 14,900-6,000 10, ,700-1,800 2, ,400-2,000 3,000 6,500 50,200-20,300 36,400 3,900 29,800-11,300 22, ,800-1,200 1, ,400-1,500 2, , ,200 16, ,300-52,400 92,300 Table 3 Upper bound estimated job losses from 10% minimum wage increase, by province and age group 1 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada Source: CFIB analysis of Statistics Canada s 2009 Labour Force Survey data Net Loss 13,500 29, ,700 13,200 25, ,000 3,700 6, ,100 4,200 7, ,800 36,600 86, ,300 22,000 51, ,500 2,200 4, ,000 2,800 5, , ,300 1,100 3, ,100 99, , ,300 1 Subtotals may not add up to totals due to rounding.
17 10 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure 8 Provincial income tax deductions, 2010 (% of minimum wage earner s gross income) Manitoba Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia Quebec Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick Ontario Saskatchewan Yukon Nunavut Northwest Territories Alberta British Columbia Source: CFIB calculations.
18 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 11 Table 4 Annual payroll deductions per employee, 2007 vs 2010 by province/territory Minimum Wage 2007 Minimum Wage 2010 % change Net income 2007 Net income 2010 % change Deductions as a % of net income 2007 Deductions as a % of net income 2010 BC $8.00 $ $14, $15, AB $8.00 $ $14,771,64 $16, SK $7.95 $ $13, $16, MB $8.00 $ $13, $16, ON $8.00 $ $14, $18, QC $8.00 $ $15, $17, NB $7.25 $ $12, $15, NS $7.60 $ $13, $16, PEI $7.50 $ $13, $15, NL $7.50 $ $13, $17, NT $8.25 $ $14, $16, YT $8.37 $ $15, $16, NU $8.50 $ $15, $18, Source: Provincial/territorial websites, CFIB calculations based on full-time (2,080 hours) employee. Deductions include federal income tax, provincial income tax, CPP and EI. Note 1: The results above are independent of job loss effects examined in the previous section.the effect on total wage costs to the employer is uncertain depending on the number of jobs cut or fewer jobs being created. However, on a per employee cost basis, it can be seen that payroll deductions as a percentage of net income have increased in 2010 compared to 2007 even with increases in the minimum wage across most provinces. Note 2: Increased income through minimum wage increases could also result in lost benefits delivered through the tax system due to ineligibility to qualify (e.g. GST tax credit) but this effect is excluded from the analysis. Table 5 earner s annual CPP/QPP deductions: 2010 vs proposed British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Nunavut 2010 Proposed $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, $ $1, Source: CFIB calculations based on Canadian Labour Congress recommendations
19 12 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Table 6 earner s annual EI deductions: 2010 vs 2015 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Northwest Territories Yukon Nunavut $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Source: Employment Insurance Whipsaw. employment_insurance_whipsaw.html. 2 WCB contribution example refers to Accommodation, Food and Beverage, Restaurant industry classification. Due to Manitoba s experience rating system, the new firm rate is utilized. Source: Association of Workers Compensation Boards of Canada (AWCBC).
20 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 13 Table 7 Annual cost of hiring minimum wage earner (2010) Annual Wages Annual CPP, EI, WCB British Columbia $16, $1, Alberta $18, $1, Saskatchewan $19, $1, Manitoba $19, $1, Ontario $21, $1, Quebec $19, $1, New Brunswick $18, $1, Nova Scotia $20, $1, Prince Edward Island $18, $1, Newfoundland $20, $1, Northwest Territories $18, $1, Yukon $18, $1, Nunavut $20, $1, Source: CFIB calculations based on full-time (2,080 hours) employee. Total $17, $19, $20, $21, $23, $21, $20, $21, $20, $22, $20, $20, $22, Contribution percentage 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 7.7% 7.6% 7.2% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.0% Note: Other provincial payroll taxes and health premiums are excluded from the analysis, but would add to employer payroll costs.
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22 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 15 Table 8 Comparison of minimum wage rates (% increase from 2005) BC AB SK MB ON 2005 Rate $8.00 $7.00 $7.05 $7.25 $ Mandated $8.00 $8.80 $9.25 $9.50 $10.25 (0%) (26%) (31%) (31%) (38%) 2010 Indexed to CPI $8.63 $8.04 $7.89 $7.97 $ Indexed to Average Hourly Wage (8%) $9.36 (17%) (15%) $ %) (12%) $8.96 (27%) (10%) $8.61 (19%) (9%) $8.72 (17%) QC NS NB PEI NL 2005 Rate $7.60 $6.80 $6.30 $6.80 $ Mandated $9.50 $9.65 $9.00 $9.00 $10.00 (25%) (42%) (43%) (32%) (60%) 2010 Indexed to CPI $8.25 $7.48 $6.82 $7.50 $6.85 (9%) (10%) (8%) (11%) (10%) 2010 Indexed to Average Hourly Wage $8.79 $8.18 $7.73 $7.98 $7.92 (16%) (20%) (23%) (17%) (27%) Source: Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index, 2010; Statistics Canada, The Labour Force Historical Review 2009; Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Minimum Wage Database, 2010.
23 16 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure Basic Personal Exemption, by province ($) Alberta Saskatchewan Northwest Territories British Columbia Quebec Nunavut Yukon Ontario New Brunswick Nova Scotia Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island 16,825 13,348 12,740 11,000 10,505 10,382 10,382 8,943 8,777 8,231 8,134 7,833 7,708 Source: Federal and Provincial government websites
24 3 Canada s Training Grounds: SME s $18 Billion Dollar Investment in the Nation s Workforce. Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 17
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26 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 19 4 Ineffective is the term used by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada to describe a number of their own training initiatives implemented under the EI program, as presented in their 2008 Monitoring and Assessment Report.
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33 26 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Figure A1 Annual change in average hourly wage, minimum wage, and consumer price index (CPI), by province British Columbia Average Hourly Wage Change, 119 CPI Change, 112 Minimum Wage Change, Alberta Minimum Wage Change, 147 Average Hourly Wage Change, 137 CPI Change, Sources: Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index, Statistics Canada, The Labour Force Historical Review Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Minimum Wage Database, Note: The base year used for prices and wages is 2002 (2002=100). Index above 100 means that price/wage/minimum wage levels in particular year are above (E.g. Price index of 120 in 2009 means that prices are 120% of levels in 2002).
34 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Saskatchewan Minimum Wage Change, 144 Average Hourly Wage Change, 136 CPI Change, Manitoba Minimum Wage Change, 136 Average Hourly Wage Change, 126 CPI Change, Ontario Minimum Wage Change, 136 Average Hourly Wage Change, 123 CPI Change, Quebec Average Hourly Wage Change, 123 Minimum Wage Change, 121 CPI Change,
35 28 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate New Brunswick Minimum Wage Change, 138 Average Hourly Wage Change, 129 CPI Change, Nova Scotia Minimum Wage Change, 145 Average Hourly Wage Change, 128 CPI Change, Prince Edward Island Minimum Wage Change, 136 Average Hourly Wage Change, 130 CPI Change, Newfoundland and Labrador Minimum Wage Change, 153 Average Hourly Wage Change, 132 CPI Change,
36 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 29 Table A1 Annual Minimum Wage Earnings and Deductions: 2007, 2010 British Columbia Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.00 $16, $ $28.08 $ $ $1, $14, % $8.00 $16, $ $0.00 $ $ $1, $15, % Alberta Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.00 $16, $ $25.48 $ $ $1, $14, % $8.80 $18, $ $42.90 $ $ $1, $16, % Saskatchewan Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $7.95 $16, $ $ $ $ $2, $13, % $9.25 $19, $1, $ $ $ $2, $16, % Manitoba Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $ $2, $13, % $9.50 $19, $1, $1, $ $ $3, $16, % Ontario Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $ $2, $14, % $10.25 $21, $1, $ $ $ $3, $18, % Quebec Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions QPP deductions EI/QPIP deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $ $2, $14, % $9.50 $19, $ $ $ $ $2, $16, % New Brunswick Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $7.25 $15, $ $ $ $ $2, $12, % $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $ $2, $15, % Nova Scotia Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $7.60 $15, $ $ $ $ $2, $13, % $9.65 $20, $1, $ $ $ $3, $16, % Prince Edward Island Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $7.50 $15, $ $ $ $ $2, $13, % $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $ $2, $15, % Newfoundland and Labrador Gross income Federal tax deductions Prov. tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $7.50 $15, $ $ $ $ $2, $13, % $10.00 $20, $1, $ $ $ $3, $17, %
37 30 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate Northwest Territories Gross income Federal tax deductions Territory tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.25 $17, $ $ $ $ $2, $14, % $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $ $2, $16, % Yukon Gross income Federal tax deductions Territory tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.37 $17, $1, $ $ $ $2, $14, % $8.93 $18, $ $ $ $ $2, $16, % Nunavut Gross income Federal tax deductions Territory tax deductions CPP deductions EI deductions Total deductions Net income Deductions as % of net income $8.50 $17, $1, $ $ $ $2, $15, % $10.00 $20, $1, $ $ $ $2, $18, % Source: CFIB calculations based on a full-time (2,080 hours) employee.
38 Minimum Wage: Reframing the Debate 31 Table A2 Annual Impact of Minimum Wage Increases on Employers: 2007, 2010 British Columbia Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, Alberta Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, $8.80 $18, $ $ $ $1, $19, Saskatchewan Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $7.95 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, $9.25 $19, $ $ $ $1, $20, Manitoba Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, $9.50 $19, $ $ $ $1, $21, Ontario Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $1, $17, $10.25 $21, $ $ $ $1, $23, Quebec Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.00 $16, $ $ $ $ $18, $9.50 $19, $ $ $ $1, $21, New Brunswick Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $7.25 $15, $ $ $ $1, $16, $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $1, $20, Nova Scotia Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $7.60 $15, $ $ $ $1, $17, $9.65 $20, $ $ $ $1, $21, Prince Edward Island Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $7.50 $15, $ $ $ $1, $16, $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $1, $20, Newfoundland and Labrador Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $7.50 $15, $ $ $ $1, $17, $10.00 $20, $ $ $ $1, $22, Northwest Territories Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.25 $17, $ $ $ $1, $18, $9.00 $18, $ $ $ $1, $20, Yukon Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.37 $17, $ $ $ $1, $19, $8.93 $18, $ $ $ $1, $20, Nunavut Annual wages CPP contribution EI contribution WCB contribution Total contributions Total cost to employer $8.50 $17, $ $ $ $1, $19, $10.00 $20, $ $ $ $1, $22, Source: CFIB calculations based on full-time (2080 hours) employee.
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