The Current and Future Contribution of the Aboriginal Community to the Economy of Saskatchewan

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1 1 The Current and Future Contribution of the Aboriginal Community to the Economy of Saskatchewan Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director Centre for the Study of Living Standards Saskatchewan Association of Health Organizations Career Pathing Pilot Project Symposium October 8-9, 2008 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

2 Outline 2 I. Background A. Historical and Current State of the Economy of Saskatchewan B. Forecast for the Economy of Saskatchewan II. Aboriginal People in Saskatchewan I. General Background II. Labour Market Outcomes based on Census Data III. Recent Labour MarketTrends in the Western Provinces III. Estimating the Effect of Increased Aboriginal Educational Attainment on the Saskatchewan Labour Market

3 10 Population of Saskatchewan as a Share of the National Population, Source: Statistics Canada, Historical Statistics and Population Statistics. Between 1901 and 1971, data is available only for census years. Between censuses, population levels were interpolated linearly.

4 20,000 Average Annual Population Growth by Component in Saskatchewan, , , , and 2007 Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Migration 4 15,000 Net International Migration Total Population Increase 10,000 5, ,000-10, Source: Statistics CanadaPopulation Statistics.

5 1981 = Index of Employment in Canada and Saskatchewan 1981 = Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

6 4.5 Employment in Saskatchewan as a Share of Employment in Canada, Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

7 1981 = Index of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 chained) 1981 = Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts

8 3.8 Real GDP in Saskatchewan as a Share of Real GDP in Canada ($2002 chained), Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts

9 160.0 per cent Provincial GDP per worker as a percentage of national average, current dollars, Alta. Nfld. Sask. Canada Ont. B.C. Man. Que. N.S. N.B. P.E.I. Source: Provincial Economic Accounts and Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.

10 Labour Force Growth (15+) in Saskatchewan, Thousands of persons Projections ( ) Actual data ( ) -15 Source: Labour force estimates for from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; for from Statistics Canada, Population Estimates and Projections. Note: Projected labour force estimates are calculated by multiplying projected population with the 2007 labour force participation rates for the age group, the age group and the 65 and over age group.

11 Employment Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July *Actual estimates for Forecast for 2008 and Saskatchewan

12 Real GDP Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July *Actual estimates for Forecast for 2008 and Saskatchewan

13 Unemployment Rate Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July *Actual estimates for Forecast for 2008 and Saskatchewan

14 Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, 2006 Proportion of the Canadian Population Proportion of the Aboriginal Population Share of the Aboriginal Population in Total Population Canada Atlantic Canada Quebec Ontario Western Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Territories Yukon Territory Northwest Territories Nunavut Source: Census 2006 Tabulations

15 Distribution of Aboriginal Identity Population in Saskatchewan, in per cent, Off-Reserve First Nations, 30.8 Métis, 33.9 On-Reserve First Nations, 33.7 Other, 1.7 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.

16 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Industries, 2001 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Public administration Health care and social assistance Retail trade Manufacturing Accommodation and food services Construction Educational services Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Source: Census 2001

17 30.0 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Occupations, Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Sales and service Trades, transport and equipment operators Business, finance and administration Social science, education, government service and religion Primary industry Management occupations Processing, manufacturing and utilities Health occupations Natural and applied sciences Art, culture, recreation and sport Source: Census 2001

18 140.0 Aboriginal Population Growth in Saskatchewan and Canada by Age, Saskatchewan Canada Total Source: Statistics Canada, Product XIE

19 90 80 Employment Rates of Aboriginals and non-aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Total Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree

20 Employment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, Canada Saskatchewan Total No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.

21 Unemployment Rates of Aboriginals and non-aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Total No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.

22 Unemployment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 Canada Saskatchewan Total Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree

23 60 High School non-completion Rate for Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Populations Aged 15+, Canada and Provinces, Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.

24 60 50 High School non-completion Rates for Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Populations aged 15+, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2001 Census. Note: The Census definitions of educational attainment were changed between the 2001 and 2006 Census so changes should be interpreted with caution. For more details, see

25 Proportion of the Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Population Aged 15+ With University Education*, Canada and Provinces, Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. *Includes university certificate or diploma below bachelor level as well as universtity degrees.

26 Proportion of Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Population (15+) With a University Degree, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 26 Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.

27 25.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population as a Share of Total Population (15+) in Saskatchewan, by Labour Force Status, Population Labour Force Employed Unemployed Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

28 Labour Market Outcomes of Off-Reserves Aboriginals in Saskatchewan, by Aboriginal Identity, 2007 First Nations Métis Unemployment rate Participation rate Emp/pop ratio Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

29 100.0 Shares of Population (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Off-Reserve Aboriginal by Aboriginal Identity, Completed post-secondary education High School Graduate or Some Post-Secondary Less than high school First Nations Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Métis

30 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate in Western Provinces, Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

31 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate in Western Provinces, Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

32 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate in Western Provinces, Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

33 Recent Participation Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

34 18 Recent Unemployment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

35 Pe r Cent Recent Employment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

36 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Less than high school High school graduate Completed post-secondary education Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

37 30.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Less than high school High school graduate Completed post-secondary education Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

38 85.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Less than high school High school graduate Completed post-secondary education Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

39 39 Summary of Aboriginal Labour Force Projections, by Scenario and by Province, Percentage Change in Aboriginal Labour Force, Contribution to Total Labour Force Growth, , per cent Percentage of Labour Force in 2001 Percentage of Labour Force in 2017 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Territories Canada

40 40 Summary of Aboriginal Employment Projections, by Scenario and by Province, Percentage Change in Aboriginal Employment, Contribution to the Employment Growth, per cent Percentage of Employment in 2001 Percentage of Employment in 2017 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Territories Canada

41 Thank You 41 Website:

August 2015 Aboriginal Population Off-Reserve Package

August 2015 Aboriginal Population Off-Reserve Package Labour Force Statistics Aboriginal Population Off-Reserve Package Package Includes: - Information for all Aboriginal people, First Nations and Métis - Working age population, labour force, employment,