Selected Demographic and Economic Characteristics of the Aboriginal Population in Saskatchewan

Transcription

1 Selected Demographic and Economic Characteristics of the Population in Saskatchewan Presentation to the Canadian Bar Association Mid-Winter Meeting January 31, 2008 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H

2 Outline Definitions and Data Sources How Large is the Population? Compared with other provinces In Saskatchewan Cities Population Growth Rates Age Distribution Other Socioeconomic Data January

3 Definitions and Data Sources The only comprehensive source of information about the population comes from Statistics Canada generally and the Census in particular. Starting in the 1996 Census, Statistics Canada began using the concept of self-identity to measure the size population. A person is considered as being if they answered yes to one of: (Is this person) an person, that is, North American Indian, Métis or Inuit (Eskimo)? (Is this person) a Treaty Indian or a Registered Indian as defined by the Indian Act of Canada? (Is this person) a member of an Indian Band or First Nation? Unless otherwise indicated all of the material in this presentation is from the 1996, 2001, or 2006 census. January

4 The Size of the Population, 2006 Canada BC Alta Sask Man Population as Percentage of the Total 3.8% 4.8% 5.8% 14.9% 15.5% In 2006, Saskatchewan had 141,890 people: 91,400 who reported being only North American Indian, 48,115 who reported being only Métis; and 2,375 who were Inuit, neither or a combination. Ont 2.0% Que 1.5% NB 2.5% NS 2.7% PEI 1.3% Nfld 4.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Saskatchewan has 12% of the population in Canada. In absolute terms, the largest number (242,000) are in Ontario. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are, by far, the provinces with the largest proportion of the population. January

5 The Size of the Population in Larger Centres Provincial Total Population as Percentage of the Total All other Regina and Saskatoon together account for more than one quarter of the province s population. Swift Current Estevan Moose Jaw Regina Saskatoon Yorkton Lloydminster SK North Battleford Prince Albert First Nations Métis and Other Except for Regina, there are negligible numbers of people living in the southern urban areas. people are the most common (i.e. expressed as a proportion of the total population) in Prince Albert and North Battleford. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% January

6 Changes Over Time thousands Population in Saskatchewan Sask Trends Monitor Projection Actual The growth rate in the population slowed from an average of 3.5% per year from 1996 to 2001 to 1.7% per year from 2001 to Most projections of the size of the population overstated the growth rate. Sask Trends Monitor, for example, was projecting a growth rate of 2.8%. Others were even higher. 110 What happened? January

7 Changes by Identity 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Average Annual Growth Rates, Population in Saskatchewan thousands 2.8% 4.8% First Nation Métis & other 1.8% 1.7% A preliminary analysis suggests that the slower growth rate is the result of two factors. Migration rates may have been underestimated because there are fewer young adults (15 to 34 years) than expected. The confirmation of this, one way or the other, is still a few months away. The number of persons self-identifying as Métis may have been artificially high in % 0% 1996 to to 2006 January

8 Growth Rates by Residence Average Annual Increase, 2001 to 2006 Provincial Total All other Swift Current Yorkton Saskatoon Estevan In the past five years, the population has become more concentrated in northern urban centres. Population growth on Reserve was almost non-existent (0.7% per year) between 2001 and Regina Lloydminster SK Moose Jaw North Battleford Prince Albert 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% January

9 Age Distribution Age Distribution in years and over Non- 65 to 74 years 55 to 64 years Notwithstanding the lower fertility rates, the population is still very young relative to the non- population in Saskatchewan. 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 15 to 24 years 5 to 14 years Under 5 years 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% January

10 Other Socioeconomic Information Post-secondary grads, 20 to 64, 2001 Employment rates, 15 to 64, 2000 Employment rates, off reserve, 15 to 64, 2007 Invidividual income (15 & older) in 2000 Comparison of Selected Indicators, Saskatchewan Non- Non- Non- Non- 32% 44% 50% $15,960 66% 78% 84% $26,910 In the coming months we will be getting more information about the socioeconomic status of the population. We expect that: the quality of the housing stock will be a major problem on Reserve; levels of completed education will be rising but still too low; employment levels off Reserve are increasing but probably not on Reserve; income off Reserve will be increasing more quickly than on Reserve. January

11 ...questions? A copy of this presentation will be made available on