2016 Census: Release 4. Income. Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer. September 20, Environics Analytics

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1 2016 Census: Release 4 Income Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer September 20, 2017

2 Today s presenter Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer 2

3 housekeeping Listen-only mode for attendees Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface Technical difficulties? Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 3

4 Overview of presentation Background on income measurement Household income Individual income Income of couples Low-income A closer look at seniors Contributions to savings programs What s still to come 4

5 Background on income measurement 5

6 Changes in collection of Income Data Income data collected solely from tax records Record Linkage rate T1 record 85.2% CRA record (partial information) 94.8% Income data derived from all persons rather than the sample long form as in previous censuses (30 percent sample in 2016) New information available on contributions to various government programs Registered Retirement Savings Program (RRSP) Registered Pension Plans (RRP) Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) 6

7 Measuring income Many different measures of income for 2015 Total Household Income Total Income of Individuals Census Family Income Economic Family Income Refers to a group of two or more persons who live in the same dwelling and are related to each other by blood, marriage, common-law, adoption, or a foster relationship Before and after tax income Comparisons of 2015 to 2005 from 2006 Census Summary measures Median Average (Mean) to be released later on sample data Aggregate Income to be released later on sample data 7

8 Components of Total Income Market Income Employment income (wages and salaries/self-employment) Private retirement income Investment income Any other money income Income from Government Programs Old Age Security (OAS), Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS), Spouse s Allowance (SPA) Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) benefits Child benefits Employment Insurance (EI) benefits Social assistance Other government transfers Excludes net capital gains or losses 8

9 Income Data available This release presents income statistics for different demographic characteristics: a) Age b) Sex c) Family characteristics d) Household characteristics e) Dwelling characteristics More income estimates will be available in subsequent major census releases, when ethnocultural, housing, education, and labour characteristics collected by the long-form census questionnaire are featured 9

10 Household income 10

11 Total Household Income The total income of a household is the sum of the total incomes of all members of that household 11

12 Various Measures of Median Household/Family Income, 2015, Canada Household Median Income # of Hhlds 14,072,080 Economic Family (2 or more persons) # of Economic Families 9,688,845 Census family (2 or more persons) # of Census Families 9,840,725 Total 70,300 $ Total 88,300 $ 84,600 $ After tax 61,400 After tax 76,400 73,300 % Change % Change % Change Total 10.8 % Total 12.5 % Total 12.0 % After tax 11.5 After tax 12.9 After tax 12.5 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 12

13 Change in median income higher than previous decade Percentage Change in Median Household Income (after adjusting for inflation), Canada % Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 13

14 Alberta much above average; Highest increases in resource-based provinces Median Household Income ($), 2015, Canada Change (2015$) Alberta Saskatchewan 93,800 75,400 $ Saskatchewan Newfoundland and Labrador % Ontario 74,300 Alberta 24 Canada 70,300 Manitoba 20 British Columbia 70,000 British Columbia 12 Manitoba 68,100 Prince Edward Island 11 Newfoundland and Labrador 67,300 New Brunswick 11 Prince Edward Island 61,200 Canada 11 Nova Scotia 60,800 Nova Scotia 10 Quebec 59,800 Quebec 9 New Brunswick 59,300 Ontario 3.8 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 14

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17 Median Household Income 2015: Top 10 and Bottom 10 CMAs Median Household Income ($), 2015, Canada Calgary 99,600 $ Peterborough 64,800 $ Edmonton 94,400 London 64,700 Oshawa 85,700 Belleville 63,900 Regina 84,400 Saint John 63,700 Saskatoon 83,000 St. Catharines - Niagara 63,000 Ottawa - Gatineau 82,100 Moncton 62,900 Guelph 81,200 Montréal 61,800 Barrie 80,800 Saguenay 59,200 St. John's 79,800 Sherbrooke 53,700 Toronto 78,400 Trois-Rivières 51,900 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 17

18 Change in median income ; Top 10 and Bottom 10 CMAs Percentage Change in Median Household Income ($), , Canada Top 10 Bottom 10 Saskatoon 37.0 Regina 28.1 St. John's 27.5 Edmonton 26.6 Calgary 22.7 Lethbridge 20.5 Kelowna 19.5 Winnipeg 16.6 Abbotsford - Mission 14.1 Victoria 11.5 % Belleville Barrie Toronto Brantford Guelph Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo St. Catharines - Niagara Oshawa London -2.1 Windsor -6.4 % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 18

19 Municipalities vary widely in income Median Household Income, Top 10 and Bottom 10 Municipalities, 2015$ Municipalities of 25,000 households or more Top 10 Bottom 10 Wood Buffalo 195,600 $ Cape Breton 53,800 $ Strathcona County 126,400 Victoria 53,100 Oakville 113,700 Granby 52,400 Vaughan 105,400 Saint John 52,100 Milton 104,700 Sherbrooke 51,700 North Vancouver 104,000 Saint-Jérôme 51,500 Whitby 103,800 Saint-Hyacinthe 50,900 Pickering 99,700 Trois-Rivières 50,700 Calgary 97,300 Drummondville 50,400 Ajax 96,900 Montréal 50,200 19

20 Income varies by family type and Most family types had increases in income Median Household Income, 2015, Canada Total Households 70,300 $ Percentage Change in Median Household Income, , Canada 10.8% Total Households Couple without children 79, % Couple without children Couple with children 112, % Couple with children Male lone-parent 65, % Male lone-parent Female lone-parent 49, % Female lone-parent Non-family households 38, % Non-family households Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 20

21 Distribution of income shifts Upward Percentage Household Income Distribution (2015$), Canada % 10.7 Under $30,000 $30,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $124,999 $125,000+ Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 21

22 Calgary CMA has highest concentration of high income Concentration of Household Income above $150,000, 2015 Calgary Edmonton Regina Toronto Saskatoon St. John's Oshawa Ottawa - Gatineau Guelph Hamilton Vancouver Barrie Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Greater Sudbury $150,000-$199,999 $200,000+ Total at end % Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 22

23 Individual Income 23

24 Males continue to have much higher incomes Total Income, 2015$, Canada Male Female $ 40,800 28,900 41,200 32,900 56,000 56,300 41,000 40,200 48,700 33,000 34,600 22,800 11,900 11,200 All ages Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 24

25 However, Income increases higher for females Percentage Change in Median Individual Income by Age Group, , Canada 30 % Male Female M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Age 16 and over and over $40,782 $28,860 11,918 11,172 41,159 32,907 55,981 40,990 56,334 40,217 48,728 33,032 37,647 23,752 30,368 22, Median Income $ 2015 Median Income $ Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 25

26 Income increases higher for females Percentage Change in Median Individual Income by Age Group, , Canada 30 % Male Female M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Age 16 and over and over $40,782 $28,860 11,918 11,172 41,159 32,907 55,981 40,990 56,334 40,217 48,728 33,032 37,647 23,752 30,368 22, Median Income $ Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 26

27 Most individuals receive income from government transfers Percent of Individuals Receiving Income Source, 2015, Canada 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Investment Income Employment Income EI Benefits Child Benefits All ages Age Groups EI - Employment Insurance Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 27

28 Employment accounts for three quarters of total income Sources of Total Income, 2015, Canada Investment 5% Retirement 8% Other 2% Percentage Change in Income, , Canada Total income 26 % Employment income 20 Employment 72% Government transfers 13% Investment income Retirement income Other income Government transfers Source: Statistics Canada, 2015 Income survey 28

29 Aggregate income highest for persons aged Percent of Aggregate Income by Age Group, Canada, 2015 Change in Aggregate Income (2015$) by Age Group, Ages % and over 16% % % % % % Ages and over Source: Statistics Canada Income Survey 29

30 Income of couples 30

31 In nearly a third of couples, women have higher incomes Percent of Couples Where a Female is the Higher Total Income Recipient, 2015, Canada % All ages Age of older person Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 31

32 Females contribution higher at lower incomes Percent of Couples Where a Female is the Higher Total Income Recipient, 2015, Canada % Total Income from couple Under $20,000 (including loss) $20,000 - $29,999 $30,000 - $39,999 $40,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $79,999 $80,000 - $99,999 $100,000 and over $100,000 - $124,999 $125,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 and over Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 32

33 Same-sex couples have higher household incomes Median Household Income for Couples, 2015$, Canada Opposite-sex couples Same-sex couples $ 87,600 96,900 68,700 56, , , ,500 92,200 62,300 81,200 All ages Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 33

34 Low-income 34

35 Low-Income Concepts Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) Low-income measure, before tax (LIM-BT) Low-income cut-offs, after tax (LICO-AT) Low-income cut-offs, before tax (LICO-BT) Market Basket Measure (MBM) 35

36 The Low-income measure, after tax, (LIM-AT) Refers to a fixed percentage (50%) of median adjusted after tax income of private households. The household after tax income is adjusted for household size by an equivalence scale to take economies of scale into account. Same threshold for all geographic areas Not calculated for Reserves and 3 Northern Territories Widely used for international comparisons 36

37 Low-Income Cut-off after tax (LICO-AT) Refers to income thresholds, calculated as 20 percentage points higher after tax income than the average spent on food, shelter and clothing. Defined using 1992 expenditure data, adjusted for inflation The LICO-AT has 35 cut-offs varying by seven family sizes and five different sizes of area of residence to account for economies of scale and potential differences in cost of living Not calculated for Reserves or Northern Territories 37

38 Market Basket Measure Refers to the measure of low-income based on the cost of a specific basket of goods and services representing a modest, basic standard of living developed by Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC). The threshold represents the costs of specified qualities and quantities of food, clothing, footwear, transportation, shelter and other expenses for a reference family of two adults and two children. The measure is adjusted for family size The MBM basket (2011-base) is priced for 50 different geographic areas The 2016 MBM is not yet available as it depends on some long form data 38

39 Alternative Measures of Low-Income from Household Surveys, Canada 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% LIM-AT MBM LICO-AT LIM-AT Low-income measure after tax LICO-AT Low-income cut-offs after tax, 1992 base MBM Market basket measure, 2011 base Source: Statistics Canada, Income surveys 39

40 Thresholds for 2015 Census low-income Measure After tax 31,300 38,300 44,300 49,500 54,200 58,600 $ 22,100 1 Person Number of Persons The Low-income Measure, after tax, refers to a fixed percentage (50%) of median adjusted after tax income off private households. The household after tax income is adjusted by an equivalence scale to take economies of scale into account. This adjustment for different household sizes reflects the fact that a household's needs increase, but at a decreasing rate, as the number of members increases. Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 40

41 Little change in low-income except for seniors that had increase Percent of Persons in Low-income Households (LIM-AT), 2016, Canada % Total and over Age Groups Note: 2015 Low-income Threshold 1 person $22,133 2 persons $31,301 4 persons $44,266 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 41

42 half of persons in low-income households are aged Persons in Low-income Households (000s) by Age, 2015, Canada Increase in Number of Persons in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada 65 and over % Age ,164 24% 65.2 Age ,349 49% % % Total and Age Groups over Total 4,809,940 4,810 1, , Number of Persons, (000s), 2015 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 42

43 High levels of low-income for lone-parents and persons not in families Percent Prevalence of Low-income Households, 2015, Canada Persons in Economic Families Without children or other relatives With children Male lone-parent Female lone-parent Total Persons +14.2% 8.3 % Persons Not in Economic Families Aged 15 to 29 years Aged 30 to 64 years Aged 65 years and over Total Persons +14.2% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 43

44 Low-income ranges from 17% in Nova Scotia to 9% in Alberta Percent of Persons in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada % NS NB PEI BC NL MB QC ON Canada SK AB Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 44

45 Many more persons in low-income in some provinces Percentage Change in Persons in Low-Income Households, , Canada Ontario 23.7 % Alberta Prince Edward Island British Columbia Canada Manitoba Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Saskatchewan Newfoundland and Labrador Number in Low-Income Households ON 1,899,000 AB 363,900 PE 23,500 BC 695,000 Canada 4,809,900 MB 180,900 QC 1,160,200 NB 123,800 NS 155,000 SK 130,200 NL 78,600 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 45

46 Larger Municipalities with highest low-income rates Percent of Persons in Low-income Households, 2015 and Increase Since 2005 Municipalities of 50,000+ population Windsor 23.3 Montréal 22.7 Saint John 22.5 Richmond 22.4 Burnaby 20.6 Toronto 20.2 Victoria 19.8 Cape Breton 19.7 Moncton 19.6 Fredericton 18.9 Vancouver 18.8 London 18.8 Peterborough 18.7 Trois-Rivières 18.0 Sherbrooke 17.8 Coquitlam 17.7 St. Catharines 17.5 Saint-Jérôme 17.5 Welland 17.5 Nanaimo 17.3 % Absolute Change Windsor 5.5 Montréal -1.2 Saint John 1.7 Richmond 1.3 Burnaby 0.4 Toronto 1.5 Victoria -0.4 Cape Breton -1.6 Moncton 2.0 Fredericton 2.9 Vancouver -1.4 London 4.1 Peterborough 3.9 Trois-Rivières -0.6 Sherbrooke 0.5 Coquitlam 2.1 St. Catharines 3.6 Saint-Jérôme 2.3 Welland 3.9 Nanaimo

47 a CLOSER LOOK AT SENIORS 47

48 Senior s income sources Median Individual Income Persons Aged 65 and Over, 2015, Canada 27,400 Median Amount and Percentage Receiving, 2015,Canada Employment income 6,100 Percent Receiving $ 29.8% 17,900 15,200 Investment income Private retirement income 1,300 14, $ OAS and GIS 6, Total income Market income Government transfers CPP and QPP 7, Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 48

49 Differences in male and female incomes Median Individual Income of Persons Aged 65 and Over, 2015$, Canada Male Female Percentage Increase in Median Individual Income of Persons Aged 65 and Over, , Canada Male Female $ 34,600 37,600 22,800 23,800 30,400 22,200 % and over and over Age Groups 65 and over and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 49

50 Similar increase for couples and those living alone Median Income for Persons Aged 65 and Over, 2015$, Canada Percentage Increase in Median Income for Persons Aged 65 and Over, , Canada 62, $ 28,400 % Couple income* Living alone income Couple income** Living alone income * At least one person is 65 or over ** Couples value is estimated Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 50

51 Increases in low-income for both family types Percent of Seniors in Low Income Households, 2015$, Canada Number of Seniors in Low Income Households, 2015, Canada % 26.2 Count 790, , , , , ,700 Total In economic family Not in economic family Total In economic family Not in economic family 65% 85% 55% Percentage increase Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 51

52 Low-incomes higher for females but increases higher for males Percent of Seniors in Low Income Households, 2005 and 2015, Canada Number of Seniors in Low Income Households, 2015, Canada % Count , , , , , ,000 M F M F M F 65 and over and over Age Groups Male Female Male Female Male Female 65 and over and over Percentage increase Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 52

53 Contributions to savings programs 53

54 Two thirds of households save in one of the three programs Percent of Households Contributing to RRSP, RPP, and TFSA, 2015, Canada Any of % Median Contribution $8,100 Any of 3 RRSP RPP TFSA $3,800 RRSP $4,200 RPP $5,800 TFSA All

55 Young and old contribute less except for TFSA Percent of Households Contributing to RRSP, RPP, and TFSA, 2015, Canada 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Any TFSA RRSP RPP or older Age Groups 55

56 Contribution rates increase with income Percent of Households Contributing - RRSP, RPP, and TFSA, 2015, Canada 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Under $10K $10K - $19K $20K - $29K $30K - $39K $40K - $49K $50K - $59K $60K - $69K $70K - $79K $80K - $89K $90K - $99K $100K - $149K $150K - $199K $200K - $249K Any RRSP TFSA RPP $250K 56

57 Summary Median household income of $77,000 up by 10.8 percent over a decade Changes in income reflect impact of boom in resources and decline of manufacturing over the decade (recent downturn in resources not much reflected) Still a wide gap between male and female individual income but higher income increases for females Little change in low-income levels overall but rates up for seniors Two-thirds of Canadian households contribute to one of three registered savings programs 57

58 What s still to come 58

59 Future Census Releases October 25, 2017 Immigration and ethnocultural diversity Housing Aboriginal peoples November 29, 2017 Education Labour Journey to work Language of work Mobility and migration 59

2011 Census, but will incorporate some trends from 2016 2019 DemoStats released at end of March Built with

60 What s Ahead for Environics Analytics DemoStats 2017 DemoStats released Based on 2011 Census geography Based on 2011 Census 2018 DemoStats released at end of March Shift to 2016 Census geography Still based on 2011 Census, but will incorporate some trends from DemoStats released at end of March Built with 2016 Census-based estimates adjusted for 2016 coverage Update to PRIZM5 based on 2016 Census and other data 60

61 2016 Census: Income Questions Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer

Metropolitan Gross Domestic Product: Experimental Estimates, 2001 to 2009

Catalogue no. 11-626-X No. 042 ISSN 1927-503X ISBN 978-1-100-25208-7 Economic Insights Metropolitan Gross Domestic Product: Experimental Estimates, 2001 to 2009 by Mark Brown and Luke Rispoli Release date: