ALBERTA FORECAST HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

Transcription

1 ALBERTA FORECAST HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

2 FOCUSED ON THE WEST British Columbia Corporate tax rate lowered to 12% Rich resource sector 2010 Olympics construction boom 2006 GDP +4.0% (fcst) Alberta Only debt-free province 2 nd lowest corporate tax rate - 10% (QC lowest) Rich resource sector Highest disposable income 2006 GDP +5.0% (fcst) Manitoba/Saskatchewan Resource sector driving growth in SK SK considering tax changes MB announced tax changes SK 2006 GDP +3.9% (fcst) MB 2006 GDP +3.0% (fcst) Grande Prairie Prince George St. Albert Edmonton (5) Kamloops Courtenay Vancouver (3) Coquitlam Nanaimo Langley Victoria Surrey Kelowna (2) Cranbrook Red Deer Calgary (4) Lethbridge Saskatoon Regina Yorkton Winnipeg GDP forecast source: RBC Economics Provincial Outlook, January 2006

3 FINANCIAL REVIEW Value of $100 invested October 2000 (including reinvested dividends) $350 $300 $323 $250 $200 $150 $166 $100 $108 $ CWB S&P / TSX Financials S&P / TSX Composite

4 COMMERCIAL BANKING SPECIALTY Loan portfolio diversification as at January 31, 2006 (January 31, 2005 in brackets) Personal Loans & Mortgages 12% (10%) General Commerical 22% (25%) Commerical Mortgages 25% (29%) Corporate Loans 5% (3%) Oil & Gas Production 3% (4%) Industrial Equipment Financing & Leasing 19% (18%) Real Estate Project Loans 14% (11%)

5 HISTORY OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Total loans ($ millions) 5,000 Total loans 10 YR CAGR = 24% $4, % 4,000 3, consecutive years of doubledigit loan growth +14% +13% +11% +11% +12% 2, %** +16% +16% +13% +89%* 1, *Acquired North West Trust in 1995 **Acquired Aetna Trust in 1996

6 HISTORY OF FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Net Income ($ millions) 100,000 80,000 Net income 10 YR CAGR = 24% 60,000 40, consecutive profitable quarters (17+ years) * 20, Net Income Net Income Before Tax

7 CURRENT PERFORMANCE 2006 Performance Targets Net income growth Target 18% or greater YTD Performance (1) 35% Total revenue growth (teb) Total loan growth 15% 21% 12% 20% Provision for credit losses Efficiency ratio 0.22% or less 48% or less 0.22% 46.5% Return on equity 13% or greater 14.0% Return on assets 1.05% 1.11% Y*YTD Performance for earnings and revenue growth is the current year results over the same period in the prior year, loan growth is the increase over the past twelve months and performance for ratio targets is the current year-to-date results annualized.

8 LAND OF OPPORTUNITY British Columbia North East Oil & Gas Interior (Nat. Post March 29th) B.C. most diverse economy

9 Government Forecasts Alberta & British Columbia Government Forecasts 2005/2006 Oil Alta. Budget Revised Forecast B.C. $ $ $ Natural Gas Exchange Rate

10 Forecast Revenue ($ Billions) Alberta B.C. Q3 Update Q2 Update Personal Tax 5,902 5,745 Rebates (1,320) - Corporate Tax 2,596 1,498 Other Taxes 3,238 8,786 Total Taxation 10,416 16,029 Natural Gas 8,238 2,449 Oil 2, Land Sales 3, Other Natural Resources 53 2,208 Total Resource Revenue 14,362 5,161 Other Revenue 9,828 14,550 Total Revenue 34,606 35,740

11 Surplus ($ Billions) Alberta Q3 Update B.C. Q2 Update Forecast Revenue 34,606 35,740 Forecast Expense 27,226 34,103 Forecast 2005/2006 Surplus 7,380 1,637

12 Provincial Debt ($ Billions) Alberta B.C. Provincial Debt 0 34,883 Total Debt to GDP %

13 2005 Economic Statistics EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - OCTOBER 2005 NFLD. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. B.C. and Nfld. Employment Leaders QUE. ONT. MAN. SASK. ALTA. B.C. CANADA MONTH PERCENT CHANGE

14 2005 Economic Statistics Canada ALTA. SASK. B.C. MAN. QUE. N.S. N.B. ONT. P.E.I. NFLD. RETAIL SALES % CHANGE, SEPT. 05/SEPT. 04 Strength in the West

15 2005 Economic Statistics NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES SEPTEMBER 2005 N.S. N.B. QUE. ONT. MAN. SASK. ALTA. B.C Units, Year Over Year Percent Change

16 2005 Economic Statistics SINGLE DETACHED HOUSING STARTS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO JAN. NOV. ALTA. SASK. B.C. MAN. ATLANTIC QUE. ONT Percent

17 2005 Economic Statistics NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX OCTOBER 2005 vs. OCTOBER 2004 CANADA VICTORIA CALGARY EDMONTON HALIFAX REGINA QUEBEC CITY VANCOUVER TORONTO OTTAWA-HULL MONTREAL Year Over Year Percent Change

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19 Predictions Straight From the Gut Change Change Yr. over Yr. Prediction Percent TSX 8,952 11,296 21% 12,500 12% DOW 10,000 10,800 8% 11,500 6% PRIME RATE 4.25% 5.0% 18% 6% 10% OIL ($ U.S.) % (U.S.) 12% GAS ($ CDN.) % (CDN.) 0-100% GOLD ($ U.S.) % 550 (U.S.) 8% CANADIAN $ % 90 5%