Some provinces now face the downside of tight labour markets

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PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK September 12, 218 Some provinces now face the downside of tight labour markets When it comes to the labour market, things haven t been any better for a generation in Canada.

But even more telling is how pervasive the tightness is within these three provinces.

1 PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK September 12, 218 Some provinces now face the downside of tight labour markets When it comes to the labour market, things haven t been any better for a generation in Canada. This is especially true in BC, Ontario and Quebec where the unemployment rate plummeted to levels that not long ago most analysts thought unachievable in this day and age. But even more telling is how pervasive the tightness is within these three provinces. In Ontario for instance, more than 86% of local economic regions boast an unemployment rate of 6% or lower something unheard of in modern times. In Quebec, the proportion is 75% and it is just slightly lower in BC at 71%. No wonder workers feel pretty upbeat in these provinces despite growing trade uncertainty. Job prospects are good all round and our outlook calls for more of the same in the period ahead. BC and Central Canada are effectively at full employment... Unemployment rate in %, average between January and August It s a different story for employers. It has become a bigger challenge to attract and retain workers. A rapidly increasing number of positions are now going unfilled. Job vacancies in fact surged in Quebec, BC and other provinces in the past year. There are more and more reports of labour shortages in certain industries and regions. As baby boomers reach retirement age in greater numbers, these labour issues are poised to get worse Canada = We believe that a tight supply of labour is already restraining economic growth in several provinces this year. This is especially the case in British Columbia where one in every 24 jobs (4.2%) was unfilled in the first quarter, which no doubt inhibits the ability of many businesses to pursue growth opportunities. Tight labour supply also play a key role in slowing growth down in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta, albeit to lesser extents. There are signs that BC and Ontario employers are further challenged by accelerating wages (in part due to significant boosts to the minimum wage over the last year) though such pressure is more contained than we d expect in the current circumstances. The absence of wage pressures in Quebec and other provinces as well as nationally is in truth quite surprising. Still, it may be just a matter of time before faster wage growth emerges more broadly BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL...with most local areas having very little spare labour Proportion of economic regions with a jobless rate of 6% or lower in %, 3-month average Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies BC 86.4 August 217 August Robert Hogue Senior Economist robert.hogue@rbc.com Ramya Muthukumaran Economist ramya.muthukumaran@rbc.com Paul Ferley Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com

Unfilled positions have surged in Quebec, BC and elsewhere Annual % change in job vacancies BC has the highest job vacancy rate in the country Job vacancies as % of all occupied and vacant jobs 4 35

9-1 CA BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL CA BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL Growth to moderate in all provinces in 218 Tight labour markets are part and parcel of the Canadian economy operating at capacity.

2 Unfilled positions have surged in Quebec, BC and elsewhere Annual % change in job vacancies BC has the highest job vacancy rate in the country Job vacancies as % of all occupied and vacant jobs Q1/ Q1/217 Q1/ CA BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL CA BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL Growth to moderate in all provinces in 218 Tight labour markets are part and parcel of the Canadian economy operating at capacity. To prevent the emergence of excess demand a situation that leads to overheating the Bank of Canada has embarked on an interest rate hiking campaign to moderate GDP growth toward its long-run potential rate. Our view is that rising interest rates will have the desired effect and contribute to overall growth in Canada easing from 3.% last year to 2.1% in 218. This constitutes a slight upward revision of.1 percentage points in 218 from our June Provincial Outlook report. We expect growth to moderate from 217 in all provinces. Cooling housing markets and the winding down of major capital projects will be among the restraining factors in some of the provinces. While decelerating, Central Canada is still going quite strong, with consumers at the helm. Quebec s economy maintained solid momentum in the first half of 218 led by growth in residential construction, service industries and manufacturing. Quebec s merchandise exports are up year to date; however, tariffs on key commodities (including aluminum and softwood lumber) and the threat of further tariffs might put these gains at risk over the remainder of this year. Nonetheless, the economic vigour to date led us to revise our 218 forecast for Quebec s growth to 2.4% from 2.1% previously. Trade concerns cast an even bigger shadow on Ontario s economy where the threat of tariffs in the auto sector could have a potentially devastating impact. Still, the trade uncertainty so far hasn t really been more than a nuisance. A weaker housing market has been a bigger restraining factor. We project Ontario s economy to grow at a still respectful rate of 2.%, down from 2.7% in 217. Out west, Alberta is in position to be the growth leader among all provinces for a second straight year. Recovery from the tough recession is continuing with more sectors of the economy contributing. Stronger oil prices are a clearly positive development keeping the recovery on track. That being said, we expect growth to slow significantly to 2.5% from last year s outsized rate of 4.7%. Last year s burst spoke more about how deep the economy fell in 216 than actual vigour in 217. Capital expenditures in the oil and Real GDP Growth % change AB BC PE Canada QC MB SK ON NL NB NS AB QC BC SK Canada ON MB PE NS NB NL SK NL AB Canada BC ON QC MB PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada, RBC Economics Research

3 gas sector have yet to turn around they fell 2% in the first half of 218. Despite growing labour headwinds and a sharp drop in housing market activity, we expect British Columbia s economy to grow at a solid rate of 2.3% this year, though this will be down from 3.7% last year. Strong wage gains and population growth will continue to provide support for household spending in the province. Saskatchewan s economy is still on track to grow slightly above the Canadian average at 2.2% though this was revised downward by.2 percentage points in light of recent indications that crop production will be weaker than we previously assumed. The outlook for the province would be even brighter were it not for a disappointing job market where employment remains stalled. Lower crop production expectations also dim Manitoba s growth prospects this year. Recent agricultural reports prompted us to reduce growth by.2 percentage points to 1.7%. The winding down of major capital projects is a key factor weighing on growth in 218. Finally, Atlantic Canada is a mixed bag with PEI emerging as a bright spot once again with a growth of 1.4%. Solid population growth mainly thanks to immigration is fueling substantial activity across several economic sectors on the island including housing and household spending. At the other end of the spectrum, we expect virtually no growth from Newfoundland & Labrador s economy. With major investment projects winding down, employment will continue to fall in the province. A shrinking working-age population will be a restraining factor in New Brunswick where we project growth to be slow at just.6% in 218. The pace won t be much faster in Nova Scotia at.8%. Slower capital formation resulting from winding down construction investments as well as a letup in residential project investment will result in a sluggish pace.

4 Forecast details % change unless otherwise indicated Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Housing starts Rate (%) (Thous.) Retail sales CPI 16 17F 18F 19F 16 17F 18F 19F F 19F F 19F F 19F F 19F F 19F N.& L P.E.I N.S N.B QUE ONT MAN SASK ALTA B.C CANADA Key provincial comparisons (216 unless otherwise stated) Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Population (s, 217) 36, ,394 14,193 1,338 1,164 4,286 4,817 Gross domestic product ($ billions) 2, Real GDP ($27 billions) 1, Share of provincial GDP of Canadian GDP (%) Real GDP growth (CAGR, , %) Real GDP per capita ($ 27) 49,673 52,519 35,37 38,639 38,786 41,248 49,12 45,857 54,442 71,469 5,618 Real GDP growth rate per capita (CAGR, , %) Personal disposable income per capita ($) 31,781 32,561 28,112 28,519 29,168 27,723 32,93 29,76 32,717 37,298 34,395 Employment growth (CAGR, , %) Employment rate (Jul. 218, %) Discomfort index (inflation + unemp. rate, Jul. 218) Manufacturing industry output (% of GDP, 217) Personal expenditures on goods & services (% of GDP) International exports (% of GDP)

5 Forecast Details % change unless otherwise specified British Columbia Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Alberta Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Saskatchewan Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Manitoba Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Ontario Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index

6 Forecast Details % change unless otherwise specified Quebec Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index New Brunswick Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Nova Scotia Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Prince Edward Island Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index Newfoundland and Labrador Real GDP Nominal GDP Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Retail Sales Housing Starts (Thousands of Units) Consumer Price Index The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.

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